President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East produces hardly any tangible results. He wants to one-up China and Russia but has a problem because of his human rights agenda.
Few tangible successes can be identified from Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East. In Israel and the Palestinian territories there was hardly talk of anything concrete, and he left Saudi Arabia without a guarantee of greater oil production. The latter would have been an important election gift from Saudi leadership leading up to the U.S. midterm elections in the fall.
All Biden has to show for his trip is the civilian fly-over rights for Israel that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is now guaranteeing. Like Donald Trump before him, Biden is having his greatest success in the rapprochement between the Arab countries and Israel. It is being driven by a shared concern about Iran.
Leave No Vacuum Behind
Biden clarified his goal for the Middle East trip with the frank comment that he did not want to leave behind a vacuum that China, Russia or Iran could fill. That has, however, already occurred to some extent, due in no small part to the withdrawal policies of his two predecessors. The fact that Vladimir Putin is visiting Tehran this week, that he could establish himself in Syria, and that China has expanded its economic ties with the Gulf states all demonstrate that the new geopolitical competition for the region is well underway.
At least Biden demonstrated that the American will not give up in this race. As a democratic president, however, he will continue to face the problem that the region’s autocrats expect realpolitik from him, not lectures about human rights.
Der Nachteil des Demokraten
Die Nahost-Reise von Präsident Biden bringt kaum handfeste Ergebnisse. Er will China und Russland ausstechen, hat aber ein Problem wegen seiner Menschenrechts-Agenda.
Viele handfeste Erfolge lassen sich nach Bidens Nahostreise nicht erkennen. In Israel und in den Palästinensergebieten ging es kaum um Konkretes, und aus Saudi-Arabien kehrte er ohne Zusage für eine höhere Ölförderung zurück. Letzteres wäre ein wichtiges Wahlkampfgeschenk der saudischen Führung vor den amerikanischen Kongresswahlen im Herbst gewesen.
Nur die zivilen Überflugrechte für Israel, die das Königreich nun gewährt, kann er sich ans Revers heften. Wie schon Trump erreicht Biden damit noch am meisten bei der Annäherung zwischen arabischen Ländern und Israel. Die wird von der gemeinsamen Sorge wegen Iran getrieben.
Kein Vakuum hinterlassen
Worum es im Nahen Osten derzeit geht, hat Biden mit der freimütigen Aussage dargelegt, er wolle kein Vakuum hinterlassen, das China oder Russland oder Iran füllen könnten. Das ist allerdings teilweise schon geschehen, was nicht zuletzt an der Rückzugspolitik seiner beiden Vorgänger lag. Dass Putin diese Woche Teheran besucht, dass er sich in Syrien festsetzen konnte und dass China seine Wirtschaftsbeziehungen zum Golf ausgebaut hat, zeigt, dass das neue geopolitische Rennen um die Region in vollem Gange ist.
Biden hat zumindest den amerikanischen Willen dokumentiert, in diesem Wettstreit nicht aufzugeben. Als demokratischer Präsident wird er aber weiter das Problem haben, dass die Autokraten der Region keine Vorträge über Menschenrechte von ihm erwarten, sondern Realpolitik.
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And the man behind “Vision 2030” has shown that he is well aware that the U.S. can offer Saudi Arabia what few others can: economically, politically, in defense, in technology, and in artificial intelligence, the new key to progress.
Even Jake Sullivan, former United States president Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said “the Washington Consensus is a promise that was not kept[.]”
Even in the earlier "Deal of the Century," Benjamin Netanyahu steered Donald Trump toward a Bar-Ilan-style bear hug: first applying Israeli law to parts of the territories, and only afterward offering a "minus Arab state."
The two men—the older one from glitzy Manhattan, the younger upstart from fashionably upmarket Brooklyn—have built formidable fanbases by championing diametrically opposed visions of America.
The crown prince’s historic visit to the US this week crowned these bilateral relations, elevating Saudi Arabia to the status of a major non-NATO ally and a trusted strategic partner.