Turbulence in the Taiwan Strait

Published in La Tribune de Genève
(Switzerland) on 3 August 2022
by Malika Nedir (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mireille Dedios. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Nancy Pelosi’s visit primarily benefits Beijing, which is strengthening its response to an ever-more ambiguous American strategy in the region.

Nancy Pelosi had the right to come to Taiwan. But was she right to do so? And who benefits from her visit? Elected 18 times to the House of Representatives, and running again in November, she is proving that she is indeed the "most powerful woman in Washington." Her trip to Taipei, despite Chinese threats and the reluctance of the White House, has earned her broad support in the United States, even among her fiercest opponents. The threat from China is one of the few issues that unites Democrats and Republicans.

In challenging Beijing, Pelosi has polished her persona but has further blurred an American strategy on Taiwan that is becoming less and less clear. On three occasions in recent months, Joe Biden seemed to ignore the famous "strategic ambiguity" followed up to now by the United States, assuring Taiwan of its military support in case of Chinese aggression, before being more or less contradicted by his advisers.

Today, White House spokespeople are going through similar twists to minimize the significance of Pelosi's visit to Taipei; there is no reason to make a crisis out of it, they say in Washington, "nothing has changed." In other words, the United States still does not recognize Taiwan's independence, even though its support for the Taiwanese authorities is growing.

As a result, while the United States is adding ambiguity to "strategic ambiguity," Beijing is using the opportunity to justify trade sanctions against the island and new military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi has offered Xi Jinping a perfect opportunity to denounce American provocations, reinforce his army and brandish the Taiwanese rattle in front of his countrymen — a useful nationalist diversion in the middle of an economic crisis and a few months before the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

Malika Nedir has been chief of the World section since 2019. She previously worked at RTS as a reporter, international journalist, Paris correspondent and newscast presenter. She was awarded the Jean Dumur Prize in 2004.


Des remous dans le détroit de Taïwan

La visite de Nancy Pelosi profite avant tout à Pékin, qui muscle sa réponse face à une stratégie américaine plus ambiguë que jamais dans la région.

Nancy Pelosi avait le droit de venir à Taïwan. Mais a-t-elle eu raison de le faire? Et à qui profite sa visite? Élue 18 fois à la Chambre des représentants, à nouveau candidate en novembre, elle prouve qu’elle est bien la «femme la plus puissante de Washington». Son voyage à Taipei, malgré les menaces chinoises et les réticences de la Maison-Blanche, lui vaut un large soutien aux États-Unis, y compris chez ses plus farouches adversaires - tant la menace chinoise est l’un des rares sujets qui rassemblent Démocrates et Républicains.

Pour avoir défié Pékin, Nancy Pelosi lustre sa légende mais brouille davantage une stratégie américaine de moins en moins lisible sur Taïwan. À trois reprises ces derniers mois, Joe Biden a semblé ignorer la fameuse «ambiguïté stratégique» suivie jusque-là par les États-Unis, assurant Taïwan de son soutien militaire en cas d’agression chinoise, avant d’être plus ou moins démenti par ses conseillers.

Mêmes contorsions aujourd’hui des porte-parole de la Maison-Blanche pour minimiser la portée de la visite de Nancy Pelosi à Taipei: il n’y a pas de quoi en faire une crise, dit-on à Washington, «rien n’a changé». Autrement dit, les États-Unis ne reconnaissent toujours pas l’indépendance de Taïwan, même si leur soutien aux autorités taïwanaises est de plus en plus appuyé.

Résultat: pendant que les États-Unis ajoutent de l’ambiguïté à l’«ambiguïté stratégique», Pékin en profite pour justifier des sanctions commerciales contre l’île et de nouvelles manœuvres militaires dans le détroit de Taïwan. Nancy Pelosi offre à Xi Jinping une occasion rêvée pour dénoncer les provocations américaines, renforcer son armée et brandir le hochet taïwanais devant ses compatriotes. Une diversion nationaliste utile, en pleine crise économique et à quelques mois du Congrès du Parti communiste.

Malika Nedir est cheffe de la rubrique Monde depuis 2019. Elle a travaillé auparavant à la RTS comme reporter, journaliste à la rubrique Internationale, correspondante à Paris et présentatrice du TJ. Elle est lauréate du Prix Jean Dumur en 2004. Plus d'infos
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