US-China Leadership Summit: Avoid Conflict Surrounding Taiwan

Published in Yomiuri Shimbun
(Japan) on 30 July 2022
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
In addition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an increase in military tensions between the U.S. and China regarding Taiwan would be another step in destabilizing the international situation. U.S. and Chinese leaders must work hard to avoid conflict.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conference and engaged in a vehement exchange about the Taiwan problem.

Another trigger is that U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan in August.

The U.S. speaker of the House is second in line to become president if the current U.S. president dies, next in line to the vice president. So, it is a high-ranking position. The speaker usually travels by military aircraft on foreign trips.

China threatened that if the U.S. proceeds with the visit, the Chinese military “will never sit by idly. China will take strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Xi reportedly told Biden that China strongly opposes “interference by external forces” and warned that “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” Is this not a suggestion of countermeasures if Pelosi visits, and a demand to cancel the plan?

Biden emphasized that the U.S. maintains a “One-China” policy, and on top of that, stated that “the United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

China itself has invited a strengthened U.S. stance toward Taiwan. The Xi administration does not deny the possibility of military consolidation with Taiwan, and Chinese military aircraft repeatedly breach Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.

It is natural for the U.S. to be on edge about the possibility of China attempting to “unilaterally change the status quo by force” in Taiwan, similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Isn’t China the one escalating the crisis by “playing with fire?” China must practice self-restraint from incendiary words and actions.

We also want the U.S. to be prudent about actions that could escalate the situation. It is important to demonstrate the intention to support Taiwan without taking military risks. It would be unwise to provide China with anti-U.S.rationale.

The COVID-19 crisis has also had an effect. The U.S. and Chinese leadership have not met face-to-face since Biden assumed the presidency in January 2021.

The U.S. has midterm elections in November, and China is preparing for Communist Party elections in the fall, so at this time domestic politics are a priority. There is concern that the U.S. and China will continue without a mutual understanding, mutual distrust will grow, and the two sides will misread each other’s actions.

On the economic front, the U.S. and China bear heavy responsibility, as the first and second most powerful nations. The leaders from both sides must have a face-to-face meeting as soon as possible, and build a relationship based on at least a minimum level of trust.


米中首脳会談 台湾を巡る衝突を回避せよ

ロシアのウクライナ侵略に加えて、台湾を巡る米国と中国の軍事的緊張が高まれば、国際情勢の不安定化が一段と進むことになる。米中の首脳は衝突回避に努めねばならない。

 バイデン米大統領と中国の習近平国家主席が電話で会談し、台湾問題を巡って激しく応酬した。

 火種となっているのは、米国のペロシ下院議長が8月に予定しているとされる台湾訪問計画だ。

 米下院議長は、大統領死亡時などの権限継承順位が副大統領に次ぐ2位で、格が高い。外遊には通常、米軍機が使われる。

 中国側は、ペロシ氏の訪台計画が報じられると、「米側が独断専行するなら、中国軍は絶対に座視しない。必ずや強力な措置を講じる」などと威嚇していた。

 習氏はバイデン氏に、台湾問題での「外部勢力の干渉に断固反対する」と述べたうえで、「火遊びすれば、必ず自らの身を焦がす」と警告したという。ペロシ氏が訪台した場合の対抗措置を示唆し、中止を要求したのではないか。

 バイデン氏は、米国が「一つの中国」政策を維持していることを強調したうえで、「現状を変更したり、台湾海峡の平和と安定を損ねたりする一方的な動きに強く反対する」と述べた。

 米国の台湾への関与強化を招いたのは中国自身である。習政権は、台湾を武力統一する可能性を否定せず、中国軍機は台湾の防空識別圏への進入を繰り返している。

 ロシアのウクライナ侵略のような「力による現状変更」が台湾で起きる可能性について、米国が神経をとがらせるのは当然だ。「火遊び」で危機を高めているのは、中国ではないか。挑発的な言動を自制しなければならない。

 米国も、事態のエスカレートにつながる措置には慎重であってもらいたい。軍事的リスクを冒さずに台湾支持の意思を示すことが重要だ。中国側に反米アピールの材料を与えるのは得策ではない。

 コロナ禍の影響もあり、2021年1月にバイデン氏が就任してから、米中の首脳は一度も対面での会談を行っていない。

 米国は11月に議会の中間選挙、中国は秋に共産党大会を控え、国内政治を優先する時期に入っている。米中が意思疎通を欠いたまま、相互不信を募らせ、相手の出方を読み違える事態が懸念される。

 経済面でも、世界1、2位の大国である米中が担う責任は重い。両首脳は対面での会談を早期に実現させ、最低限の信頼関係を構築する必要がある。
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