China’s Signal to America

Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 3 February 2023
by Peter Sturm (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mallory Matsumoto. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
China is demonstrating that it can intrude on American airspace at any time. Washington is not shooting down the balloon, showing that it does not want the situation to escalate. Hopefully both sides will stay sane.

[Editor’s Update: The U.S. shot down the Chinese spy balloon on Saturday, Feb. 4, 2023 after this article was published, once the balloon moved off the coast and over the Atlantic Ocean following five days over the United States.]

Spying is as old as humanity. Accordingly, it is incumbent on all powers to refrain from descending into moral outrage when another spy case comes to light. This is the kind of rational behavior that the governments in Washington and Beijing are displaying in the case of the balloon that is traveling across the western United States 45 miles above earth over a region that is home to important American military installations.

The official Chinese response to the U.S. announcement that it had detected the balloon was predictable. China asserted the balloon was a weather device that had gone astray — it was, in other words, a civilian object.

Neither Side Wants Escalation Now

A balloon is only at first glance an antiquated means of spying that does not belong in the age of satellites. A balloon can observe its target over a much longer timeframe than a satellite. More important, however, is the political signal that the balloon is sending to Washington. China is showing the Americans that it is capable of intruding on American airspace at any time.

The U.S., on the other hand, is showing that it can detect such intrusions quickly and is capable of shooting down such an object. That it is choosing not to is a signal to Beijing. Clearly, neither side is interested in escalation right now. But the flexing of muscles continues. The world must hope that both sides continue to stay sane.



Chinas Signal an Amerika
China zeigt, dass es jederzeit in amerikanischen Luftraum eindringen kann. Washington schießt den Ballon nicht ab und zeigt, dass es keine Eskalation will. Hoffentlich bleiben beide Seiten so vernünftig.

Spionage ist so alt wie die Menschheit. Deshalb tun alle Mächte gut daran, nicht in moralische Empörung zu verfallen, wenn wieder einmal ein Fall bekannt wird. Entsprechend rational handeln die Regierungen in Washington und Peking im Fall des Ballons, der in 37 Kilometer Höhe über dem Westen der Vereinigten Staaten seine Bahn zieht. In dieser Gegend befinden sich wichtige militärische Einrichtungen der Amerikaner.
Erwartbar ist nur die offizielle chinesische Reaktion auf die Mitteilung Amerikas, man habe den Ballon entdeckt. Es handele sich um einen verirrten Wetterballon, ein ziviles Objekt also, hieß es.
Beide wollen jetzt keine Eskalation
Ein Ballon ist nur auf den ersten Blick ein antiquiertes, dem Satellitenzeitalter nicht mehr gemäßes Mittel der Spionage. Er kann sein Ziel über einen deutlich längeren Zeitraum beobachten als ein Satellit. Noch wichtiger ist allerdings das po¬litische Signal, das da gen Washington gesendet wird. China zeigt den Amerikanern, dass es jederzeit in der Lage ist, in den amerikanischen Luftraum einzudringen.
Amerika andererseits zeigt, dass es solche Versuche ziemlich schnell entdeckt und in der Lage wäre, das Objekt abzuschießen. Dass man darauf verzichtet, ist ein Signal an Peking. An einer Eskalation ist beiden offensichtlich derzeit nicht gelegen. Das Muskelspiel aber geht weiter. Die Welt muss hoffen, dass beide Seiten weiter rational handeln.
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