US Is Forcing Kyiv To Fight on Russia’s Territory*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Military expert Iurij Knutov on the threat that the cheap, U.S.-supplied Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs pose to Russia in Ukraine.

The latest news and actions by the U.S. mean that we must be prepared for the rapid, even avalanche-like, escalation of hostilities.

Congress recently approved a $45 billion military aid package for Ukraine. That means Ukraine will receive approximately $3.7 to $3.8 billion a month in military aid, with the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs forming part of that package. So, what exactly is a Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb? It is a hybrid of two combat systems. Its engine comes from an unguided M26 cluster munition rocket, the first modification of missiles designed to be used with the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. Of course, while the U.S. has formally stated that it restricted the use of cluster munitions, no official decisions have been made. And now, these munitions are in a disassembled form, with engines and warheads stored separately. And there are a lot of such engines.

At the same time, Americans developed the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb — the other important component of a Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb. When launched from an airplane at an altitude of 6.2 miles, the bomb has a range of more than 62 miles and, with satellite guidance, is accurate to within a 16.4-foot radius. Additionally, a laser designator at launch increases the bomb's accuracy to within a 3.3-foot radius. Furthermore, due to its warhead and kinetic energy, it can penetrate a 2.95-foot-thick concrete slab. Moreover, the caliber of GBU-39 is almost the same as that of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. Hence, Americans and Swedes have combined the two munitions, with the M26 engine taking the GBU-39 to the required altitude of 6.2 miles when launched using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System.

This bomb's small, effective, reflective surface is an unpleasant feature, making the bomb almost invisible to old air defense systems. However, modern Russian antiaircraft missile systems, such as the last modifications of Tor, Buk and Kub, will be able to cope with it.

The second problem the bomb poses is its relatively low cost — each bomb costs only $40,000, which allows for their mass use by Ukraine, thus further straining Russian air defenses. Nevertheless, using the S-300 missile system against them would be unnecessary. Again, Russia possesses other surface-to-air missile systems that are effective against such weapons.

The worst thing about those bombs is that they are supplied to the Ukrainian forces with the direct purpose of striking areas inside Russia. Hence, military and civilian infrastructure in Crimea and Russian regions bordering Ukraine are under threat. Moreover, supplying F-16 fighter aircraft that can carry GBU-39s will create additional problems for Russia.

Again, the U.S. began to escalate the conflict from its very first military aid package to Ukraine. Today, its goal is to force Kyiv to fight on Russia's territory.

As for the reports of MQ-9 Reaper drones being offered to Ukraine, this endeavor strongly reminds me of Elon Musk supplying the Starlink terminals to the country. At first, Musk provided them to Ukraine for free and then demanded $100 million to maintain them. This caused an outcry in Ukraine, and in the end, Poland and Canada picked up the bill.

The same may apply in this situation. That is, Ukraine will be billed for these weapons, but the Europeans will end up paying for them. Although quite a few imported drones have been shot down since the beginning of the special military operation, and Russia has gained some experience in drone warfare, capturing MQ-9 Reapers will be of interest. At least, the capture will allow Russia to discover these drones' operating frequencies and reconfigure its electronic warfare systems accordingly. Therefore, in any case, they will not become a wonder weapon for the Ukrainian army.