Support for Ukraine and Striving To Find a Start toward Peace

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 2 November 2023
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
As the international community's concern for the Gaza crisis grows, the disaster in Ukraine has been overshadowed. In Western countries, Ukrainian support fatigue is also conspicuous. In order to prevent any further rampant changes to the current situation in Ukraine, international cooperation must tighten back up again.

On the evening that U.S. President Joe Biden returned from Israel, he addressed the U.S. in a speech, asking Congress to approve a combined aid package of $105 billion (about 16 trillion yen) for Ukraine and Israel. However, the newly elected speaker of the House, Republican Mike Johnson, intends to prioritize the budget to support Israel.

This fall, in the face of internal Republican antagonism, the U.S. Congress was in turmoil over a short-term budget, and for the first time in history, the speaker was ousted. The budget was enacted but met with opposition from hard-line Republican supporters of former President Donald Trump, and it did not include support for Ukraine. If the current administration does not compromise with the Republicans, the support budget will dry up.

As the war in Ukraine continues, U.S. public opinion on support for Ukraine has also declined. The slump is particularly notable among the Republican Party's base. According to a U.S. think tank, approval for military support to Ukraine has decreased from 80% at the outset of the war to 50%. As support fatigue increases, Trump's “America First” policy, which prioritizes domestic issues over other countries, is gaining momentum.

Support fatigue and “country first” sentiment has spread in Europe as well. In October, Slovakia's newly inaugurated administration adopted a policy that would end military support for Ukraine.

The West is Ukraine's lifeline. If it is cut off, Ukraine's strength will run out. Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting for the West's solidarity to fall into disarray.

Because of the crisis in Gaza, Russia was able to divert the West's eyes from its war of aggression. However, in the mostly Muslim Republic of Dagestan, a mob protesting Israel's attack on Gaza became violent, and it is possible that Russia may become internally unstable.

If Ukraine succumbs, more countries might imitate Russia. Support-fatigued countries must not turn inward. We especially want the U.S. to be aware of its great responsibility as the standard-bearing leader of the international order.

The international community must be unwavering in its support of Ukraine. At the same time, we must not forget diplomatic efforts to find first steps toward peace.


ウクライナ支援 和平の糸口探る努力も

国際社会の関心がガザ危機に集まり、ウクライナでの惨事はかすんでしまった。西側諸国ではウクライナへの支援疲れも目立つ。力による現状変更をこれ以上横行させないために、国際協調のたがを締め直す必要がある。
 バイデン米大統領はイスラエルから帰国した日の夜、国民向けに演説し、ウクライナやイスラエルへの支援を一体にした1050億ドル(約16兆円)の予算措置を議会に要求した。だが、新たに下院議長に選ばれたジョンソン氏(共和党)は、イスラエル支援予算に絞って優先的に処理する意向だ。
 今秋の米議会は暫定予算(つなぎ予算)をめぐる共和党内の対立をきっかけに混迷し、史上初めて下院議長が解任される事態になった。暫定予算は成立したものの、トランプ前大統領を支持する共和党強硬派の反対に遭い、ウクライナ支援は除外された。このまま政権と共和党が歩み寄らないと支援予算は枯渇する。
 ウクライナ戦争が長期化するにつれ、米国の世論もウクライナ支援への支持が減った。特に共和党支持層の下落が顕著だ。米シンクタンクによる世論調査では、開戦当初は8割あった軍事支援への支持は5割に落ち込んだ。支援疲れに加えて、他国のことより国内問題を優先すべきだというトランプ流の米国第一主義が勢いづく。
 支援疲れと自国第一主義は欧州にも広がり、スロバキアで10月に発足した新政権はウクライナへの軍事支援を停止する方針だ。
 ウクライナの生命線は西側の支援である。それが途絶えれば力尽きる。プーチン・ロシア大統領が待っているのは西側の結束の乱れである。
 ロシアはガザ危機によって侵略戦争から世界の目をそらすことができた。もっとも、イスラム教徒が主体のダゲスタン共和国で、イスラエルのガザ攻撃に抗議する群衆が暴徒化したように、ロシア国内が不安定化する可能性もある。
 ウクライナが屈服する事態になれば、ロシアのまねをする国が現れかねない。支援疲れの国々も内向きになっている場合ではない。特に米国は国際秩序の担い手としての大きな責任を負っていることを自覚してほしい。
 国際社会はウクライナ支援を揺るぎなく続けるべきだ。それと同時に和平の糸口を見いだす外交努力も忘れてはならない。
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