The New Abnormal

The results in Iowa confirmed widespread expectation that Donald Trump would have a walk in the park leading to his nomination as candidate for president at the Republican Convention in July in Wisconsin.

It was no surprise. This time, no one could even make light of the polls, as they turned out to be correct. Donald Trump won Iowa with a 30% margin over Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley close behind in third place.

Indeed, this was just the start of a long process beginning with caucuses and that will be followed by the first traditional primary next Tuesday in New Hampshire.* But Iowa removed any doubts, if anyone still harbored any, that the majority of the Republican Party has definitively fallen into Trump’s camp. And that majority has remained there, despite all that happened during his presidential term, especially the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

Exit polls conducted immediately after the caucuses in Iowa showed that two-thirds of those who indicated their preferences continue to believe that Trump, not Joe Biden, won the 2020 presidential election. If we add Trump’s 51% to DeSantis’ 26%, it is easy to see the manifest impossibility that lies ahead for Haley, even though she managed to win 19% of the vote in Iowa.

This is the new abnormal for one of the two parties that have been crucial to bipartisanship in American politics. Rather than removing those who put American democracy at risk, it anoints them as an untouchable god who cannot be questioned, much less defeated.

Are there Republicans who wished for a more rational and institutional path? Of course there are, and not just a handful; polling suggests that about one-third of the party wished for that. The problem is that there aren’t enough Republicans to steer the party toward a more democratic and responsible path.

If the GOP were going through a healthy and democratically robust period, Haley would be their party’s nominee for the 2024 presidential election. They would recognize the competence she has shown in the debates, her courage in appealing to a “new conservative generation” and the clear way in which she exhorts the Republican base, asking, “Do you want more of the same? Trump and Biden both lack vision for our country’s future because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances.”

Wise words and pertinent questions, but no happy ending. A clear majority of Republicans do not see Haley as the best choice, and that is why Trump is preparing himself to win the Republican Party’s nomination for the third consecutive time.

Trump and the Evangelicals

In 2016, Trump began his then improbable run for the nomination by coming in second in Iowa to Ted Cruz, the clear choice of evangelical Christians. At the time, Trump was the choice of only 21% of this group, while this year, he won 53% of their vote.

And so it’s clear: While religious voters still somewhat distrusted and even criticized Trump in 2016, evangelicals are now thoroughly in thrall of the MAGA movement and view Trump as someone whom God has chosen to represent them. Welcome to Deep America. Let there be no doubt: The Trump hegemony is now reflected in every segment of the population — men, women, young and old — even evangelicals.

DeSantis Breathes a Little Easier

DeSantis arrived in Iowa dogged by a disappointing campaign and the chance he might withdraw from the race. Second place gave him some breathing space, but possibly only until New Hampshire, where he trails Haley by a significant margin.* He ended his speech at the end of the night with a laughable assertion: “I will be the next president.”**

After the 2022 midterms and bolstered by a massive victory as governor in Florida, DeSantis seemed to be the party’s favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination. Still, he has not even managed half of the votes Trump won in the first real contest.

It remains to be seen whether DeSantis will push ahead with the impossible mission of defeating Trump by winning over enough of Trump’s base or if his true objective is to position himself as the heir apparent to that base in 2028 in what could be a contest — this time, without Trump — against Haley who represents the more traditional and moderate wing of the party.

Nikki Haley Bets Everything on New Hampshire

At the beginning of her campaign, when she was polling at just 2% or 3%, her campaign would have considered winning 19% of the vote as she did in Iowa a fantastic result. But her solid debate performance and Chris Christie’s withdrawal from the race set up expectations for a possible second-place finish in Iowa. Although that didn’t happen, she was only 2% shy of the vote for DeSantis, which would have been considered unachievable two or three months ago.

Haley’s moment of truth will come next week in New Hampshire, a state with a voter base that appears to favor her. Is it possible she will be realistically fighting for a first-place finish next week? At a minimum, she must recover her campaign's positive dynamic coming into Iowa.

The problem for Haley is that Trump leads by more than 20% in South Carolina -- the third big contest, right after the Nevada caucuses. Yes, Trump leads Haley by a wide margin in the state where she served as a very popular governor for six years. The conservative and traditionalist profile of voters in South Carolina explains the lead, at least for now.

And What about the General Election?

Let’s assume that the most likely general election scenario is a repeat contest between Joe Biden and Trump.

Who would win? The most common response these days is that Trump would be the victor. But four years ago, at about this time, this was also the common assumption -- and, in the end, Biden won. The truth is that no one can say with certainty because 2024 is shaping up to be the year of all peril and uncertainty.

Biden has several easily outlined challenges: his advanced age and the resulting lack of confidence that many have in his ability, a lack of enthusiasm among his party’s base and a low approval rating. In addition, he will have difficult decisions to make regarding his country’s support for the wars being fought in Ukraine and Gaza.

The greatest risk for Biden is that he does the right thing regarding these wars but ends up being punished for doing so in a classic tragic ending.

As for Trump, the challenges ahead are well known: a plethora of legal cases spread throughout the election campaign calendar (something which has helped him so far but may be more problematic in a general election).

It is also possible that people will notably reject his candidacy. While it’s easy to focus on the strength of the MAGA movement, we often ignore the fact that the number of Americans who reject him is even greater.

We can understand this better by looking back at the 2020 election. Although Trump won an impressive 74 million votes, Biden garnered an even more notable 81.5 million. Anything is possible.

*Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the New Hampshire primary, which took place on Jan. 23.
**Editor’s note: Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign for his party’s presidential nomination on Jan 21.
**Editor’s note: Although these quoted remarks were accurately translated, they could not be independently verified.