US Intends To Have Denuclearization Dialogue with North Korea, South Korea Must Prepare

Published in Kyunghyang Shinmun
(South Korea) on 5 March 2024
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Krystal Endo. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
A White House national security officer has said, “[W]e are … going to consider interim steps on that pathway to denuclearization, provided that these steps will make the region and the world safer.” Mira Rapp-Hooper, the special assistant and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the White House National Security Council, said at the JoongAng Ilbo- Center for Strategic and International Studies Forum four days ago, “The United States remains committed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,” and “We are ready and willing to engage in discussions with the DPRK about threat reduction, especially currently in light of the situation on the Korean peninsula … the United States will continue to work closely with our ROK allies and with the wide variety of other partners to pursue greater and more regularized communications with the DPRK, particularly on military deconfliction and de-escalation activities, and other stabilizing exchanges that could reduce the risk of misperception and inadvertent escalation on the peninsula.” This reflects the possibility of phased negotiations in which the U.S. will take appropriate steps to freeze or reduce North Korea’s nuclear weapons before complete denuclearization.

When the U.S. negotiated with North Korea in the past, it established a system of taking intermediary steps, and considering that dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea will likely continue in this manner in the future, Rapp-Hooper’s statement is not surprising. It is unlikely that conversations with North Korea will be in full swing before the U.S. presidential election in November. In this regard, the remarks seemed to have originated from an intent to reduce rising tensions throughout the Korean peninsula, which have been heightened recently due to the intense confrontation between North and South Korea. Nevertheless, notably, this is the first time a White House official from the Joe Biden administration has spoken on the issue. No matter who the next president will be, the U.S. is feeling the need to negotiate with North Korea, and the core of that dialogue is how to realize the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and peacebuilding.

Having already declared its nuclear armamentation, North Korea it has begun to restore relations not only with friendly nations such as Russia and China but also with Japan and Germany. Recently, the United Nation’s resident coordinator in North Korea, who was evacuated after the COVID-19 pandemic, has agreed to return to Pyongyang. There is a calculation behind North Korea’s actions to shed its isolationism and make its status as a nuclear power an indisputable fact. The more time passes, the more the international community’s sanctions on North Korea are slowly being relaxed. The longer the intervention of the U.S and South Korea continues, something that North Korea is closing the door of dialogue on, the more North Korea can solidify its status as a nuclear power.

I hope that the U.S. and North Korea will engage in substantial denuclearization talks as soon as possible as the National Security Council official stated. Yoon Suk-yeol’s government must also make thorough preparations. If we remain complacent in believing that ‘North Korea cannot go to Tokyo or Washington without passing through Seoul,” as Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said, it may get serious. All foreign affairs and security ministries must consider how to achieve denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and take the initiative in communicating with the countries that are affected.


미국 백악관 당국자가 “지역과 세계를 더 안전하게 만들 수 있다면 북한과 비핵화를 향한 중간 단계 조치도 고려할 용의가 있다”고 말했다. 미라 랩-후퍼 백악관 국가안보회의(NSC) 동아시아·오세아니아 담당 선임보좌관은 지난 4일 중앙일보-CSIS 포럼에서 “미국의 목표는 한반도의 완전한 비핵화”라면서도 “현재 한반도 상황을 고려할 때 긴장 고조가 오판으로 이어질 위험을 줄이기 위해 북한과 더 큰 폭의 더 정례화된 소통을 추구해야 하며, 안정화를 위한 활동도 필요하다”고 말했다. 완전한 비핵화 이전에 북한의 핵 동결이나 감축에 미국이 상응 조치를 하는 단계적 협상 가능성을 비친 것이다.

과거에도 미국이 북한과 협상을 할 때 중간 단계를 설정했고 앞으로 북·미 대화도 그럴 수밖에 없다는 점을 고려하면, 이것이 놀라운 발언은 아니다. 미국 정부가 11월 대선 전에 북한과 본격적인 대화를 할 가능성도 높지 않다. 그런 점에서 이 발언은 최근 남북한의 강 대 강 대치로 높아진 한반도 긴장을 낮추려는 의도에서 비롯되었을 것으로 본다. 그럼에도 조 바이든 행정부 백악관 인사가 처음으로 이런 얘기를 한 것에 주목한다. 누가 다음 대통령이 되든 미국이 북한과 대화에 나설 필요를 느끼고 있고, 그 대화의 핵심은 결국 한반도 비핵화와 평화구축을 어떻게 실현하느냐에 있기 때문이다.


북한은 이미 핵 무장을 선언한 상태에서 러시아·중국 등 우호국들뿐만 아니라 일본·독일 등과도 관계 복원에 나섰다. 최근에는 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 철수했던 유엔의 북한 상주 조정관의 평양 복귀에도 동의했다. 북한의 행보 배경에는 고립을 탈피하고 사실상 핵보유국 지위를 기정사실화하려는 계산이 있을 것이다. 시간이 갈수록 국제사회의 대북 제재도 조금씩 이완되고 있다. 북한이 대화의 문을 닫고 있는 미국과 한국의 개입이 늦어질수록 북한의 핵보유 지위가 굳어질 수 있다.

미국과 북한이 가능한 한 이른 시기에 이 NSC 관계자 말대로 북한과 실질적인 비핵화 대화에 나서기 바란다. 윤석열 정부도 면밀히 대비해야 한다. ‘북한이 서울을 거치지 않고 도쿄든 워싱턴이든 갈 수 없다’(김영호 통일부 장관)는 식의 안이한 태도로 있다가는 크게 당할지도 모른다. 전 외교안보 부처가 한반도 비핵화를 어떻게 실현할지 궁리하고, 관련국들과 주도적으로 소통해야 한다.
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