US Presidential Election: Prepare for Trump’s Emergence

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 7 March 2024
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Mitchelle Lumumba.
Super Tuesday, the event in which [15] U.S. states hold their primaries to determine their Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, was held. Former Republican President Donald Trump secured an overwhelming victory, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced her withdrawal from the election. Current Democratic President Joe Biden also notched a landslide victory.

The general election in November is expected to be similar to four years ago when Trump and Biden faced off against each other. Various public opinion polls show a roughly equal approval rating for both candidates. However, swing states, which determine victory or defeat in the general election, lean more toward supporting Trump. It is unclear who will win, but whichever candidate wins will influence the direction of the international order.

While in office and even now, Trump has expressed anger at NATO member nations that do not pay enough for defense. Amid concerns over the Taiwan crisis, this intense line of sight is no doubt turned toward Japan's defense efforts.

The alliance between the U.S. and Japan must be maintained, no matter which candidate is elected, for Japan to protect peace and stability for itself and the region. Japan lost former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had a friendly relationship with Trump. We would like the government and the Liberal Democratic Party to prioritize rebuilding the relationship with Trump.

It is rare for the basic structure of the general election showdown to be finalized at the Super Tuesday stage. Trump has set his sights on incumbent President Biden, more so than on the contest to get nominated.

Given the current situation, there is concern that support for Ukraine's resistance to the Russian invasion will stagnate.

Last month, the U.S. Senate approved an emergency draft aid package of $95 billion, which includes aid to Ukraine. However, the bill is not expected to pass in the Republican-dominated House of Representatives. Trump, who opposes the aid bill, is wielding his influence on members of Congress who are blocking the bill.

Though it might be meant to demonstrate an antagonistic posture to Biden, delaying support to Ukraine is dangerous. If Russia gains an advantage, China and other such despotic countries aiming to “change the status quo by force” will gain momentum.

The 77-year-old Trump is facing four criminal indictments*, including the attack on the U.S. Capitol. The 81-year-old Biden's cognitive abilities remain in question after gaffes such as mistaking the names of the French and German leaders. We hope that both candidates, who each have had their presidential qualities questioned, will engage in a debate that will dispel the doubts.


*Editor's Note: Trump's four criminal indictments add up to 91 felony counts.


米大統領選 「トランプ登場」に備えよ

米大統領選の民主、共和各党の候補指名をめぐる州の予備選などが集中する「スーパーチューズデー」が行われた。共和党ではトランプ前大統領が圧倒的な強さを示して勝利し、ヘイリー元国連大使は撤退を表明した。民主党は現職のバイデン大統領が圧勝した。

11月の本選は4年前と同様、トランプ、バイデン両氏の対決となる見通しだ。各種世論調査では両氏への支持率はほぼ拮抗(きっこう)している。ただし、本選の勝敗を分けるとされる接戦州ではトランプ氏への支持が上回る傾向にある。どちらが勝利するかはわからないが、米大統領が誰になるかは国際秩序の行方を左右する。

トランプ氏は、大統領在任中も今も、北大西洋条約機構(NATO)加盟国の国防費負担が不十分だと怒りを示してきた。台湾有事が懸念される中で、日本の防衛努力にも厳しい視線を向けるに違いない。

日本は自国と地域の平和と安全を守るため、どちらが当選しても日米同盟を堅持していく必要がある。トランプ氏と盟友関係だった安倍晋三元首相を日本は失った。政府・自民党は最優先でトランプ氏との関係を再構築してもらいたい。

スーパーチューズデーの段階で本選の対決の構図が固まったのは異例だ。トランプ氏は指名争いよりも現職バイデン氏に照準を合わせている。

懸念されるのは、このような情勢が、侵略者ロシアに抗戦するウクライナへの支援を滞らせていることだ。

米上院は先月、ウクライナ支援を含む約950億ドル規模の緊急予算案を可決した。一方、共和党が多数派の下院は可決の見通しが立っていない。緊急予算案に反対するトランプ氏が、承認阻止に向けて所属議員に影響力を行使している。

バイデン氏への対抗姿勢を示すためかもしれないが、ウクライナ支援を滞らせては危険だ。ロシアが有利になれば、中国など「力による現状変更」を狙う専制国家が勢いづくからだ。

77歳のトランプ氏は米連邦議会襲撃事件など4件で起訴されている。81歳のバイデン氏は仏独首脳の名前を言い間違えるなど記憶力に疑問符がつく。大統領としての資質を問う声が向けられる両氏には、こうした疑念を払拭する論戦を期待する。
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