Intolerable vs. Incompetent: Who Will Become US President after Biden?*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Vitaliy Ryumshin discusses why Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race does not change the balance of power in the U.S.

There have been some surprising developments in the U.S. presidential race. In an unprecedented move, President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21, just a few weeks before he was expected to become the Democratic Party’s nominee. This decision came after a Democratic uprising following Biden's poor showing in a televised debate with Donald Trump. Subsequently, many of the president's allies pushed him to drop out. Biden resisted until the last moment, but eventually, he was forced to step aside when nearly the entire Democratic leadership turned against him.

While the Democratic camp was in disarray, the situation significantly improved for Trump. First, the Republican nominee prevailed over his opponent in the debate, and then the U.S. Supreme Court issued favorable rulings in several major criminal cases Trump faces. Following this, Trump miraculously escaped assassination and spoke at a triumphant Republican National Convention just two days later. Adding to this, Biden is now out of the race. So, it seems that nothing can stop Trump from returning to the White House.

But is that really the case? Well, if you're a Trump fan, you're in for a disappointment: Biden's departure does not guarantee his opponent will be reelected.

Indeed, the former president still faces many problems. Trump is enmeshed in never-ending scandals, his approval rating remains stubbornly low, and he has failed to unite the country, although recently, he seemed to make some progress toward that end. Moreover, in May and June, people had hoped that the former president had matured politically. After all, Trump reconciled with moderate Republicans, attended the Libertarian Party convention, and aligned himself with the Silicon Valley tech giants who had previously supported the Democrats. However, it all crumbled when he named radical Trumpist Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. That's when it became clear that for Trump, ideological affinity and personal loyalty were still more important than political shrewdness.

So far, Trump has been able to cleverly hide his incompetence behind Biden’s shortcomings. Indeed, Biden had behaved strangely at public events and, at times, made utterly no sense. America talked about nothing other than Biden’s deteriorating health, which was getting worse by the month. Against this backdrop, an upbeat Trump looked like a worthy alternative.

Now that Biden is no longer in the race, his vice president, Kamala Harris, is getting ready to run against the Republican nominee. She is a relatively young (59-year-old) Black woman with Indian ancestry. People consider her modern enough to become a TikTok phenomenon and she is relatively popular with independent voters, minorities and young people. In contrast, Trump now seems like America's grandfather in chief, someone who should retire.

Trump needs to offer voters more than just the promise of clear thinking and staying healthy if he is to maintain his momentum.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are also facing challenges. They made a significant mistake by fully committing to a risky Biden nomination, which almost caused a rift in the party. However, after dealing with this crisis, the Democratic Party has pinned its hopes on Harris, a highly questionable candidate.

Indeed, Harris has many shortcomings. She lacks charisma and public speaking skills, and her speeches are word salads. Her awkward jokes and uncontrollable laughter have turned her into a meme.

Moreover, her track record is far from perfect. Harris unsuccessfully ran for president in 2019, losing in the Democratic primaries due to a poorly organized campaign. As vice president, she struggled to handle the immigrant crisis and alienated 90% of her staff with her toxic behavior. In the last few years, Harris’ role has been reduced to occasionally standing in for Biden at events he didn't wish to attend.

Therefore, by all accounts, Harris should never have become a successful politician. Americans seem to agree. Her approval rating is lower than Biden's, and her disapproval rating is comparable to Trump's. However, despite her shortcomings, Democrats have consistently promoted her within the party, possibly because she is the ultimate diversity, equity and inclusion candidate.

Now Harris is faced with the challenge of reviving the Democratic presidential campaign as quickly as possible. This includes selecting a running mate, distancing herself from Biden, and combating racism and sexism, which are deeply ingrained in American society. Accomplishing this will require precise and well-coordinated efforts from a large team, significant funding, and minimal mistakes from Harris herself. While she will have access to the necessary resources, there are concerns about whether, given her track record, Harris will use them effectively. It's important to note that Harris did not independently participate in the primaries, which may lead some to think of her as the candidate no one chose.

As such, the crucial point is that what appeared to be significant changes in American politics have not produced any actual results.

The U.S. presidential election may change in its details, but the general situation remains the same. It's a contest between the bad and the worst, between the intolerable and the incompetent. And whoever wins the 2024 presidential election won’t necessarily be the one who most deserves it, but the one who disgraces themselves the least.

The author expresses a personal opinion that may not reflect the views of Gazeta.ru’s editorial board.