Do Trickle-Down Economics Have Value or Drawbacks?

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 19 October 2024
by Ma Kai (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
The campaign in the current U.S. presidential election is getting increasingly fierce. While Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have each had victories, the polls show them neck and neck. Until the election result is announced, no one dares to say who will lead the country. Due to current political and economic chaos around the world, not only the fate of the U.S. but also that of the world is closely tied to the outcome.

According to their clearly stated political views up to now, both candidates will be tough on China and try to strengthen the economy; it is only that they are completely different and unyielding in their positions. This will affect the direction of U.S. economic policy, so-called trickle-down economics.

An American humorist invented the unusual term “trickle-down economics” during the Great Depression between 1929 and 1933. It refers to the benefits gained from greatly cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations that would trickle down to poor people and help everyone. Half a century later, the term referred to President Ronald Reagan’s economic policies. Since Reagan is considered to be the most successful president of modern times, subsequent Republicans have adopted the same policies. Trump, who is determined to imitate Reagan, not only agrees with trickle-down economic policies, but began blindly implementing them iwhen he was in office.

President Reagan not only took down the Soviet Union and Japan, two major powers that threatened U.S. hegemony, but enacted well-performing economic programs. When Reagan first took office, the economy was heading into a recession by 1982 on par with the Great Depression. However, prosperity returned after several years and continued into the 1990s, making it the longest period of economic prosperity in U.S. history. His economic policies were radically transformative, changing the previously popular Keynesian economic approach and boldly introducing a new economic position: supply-side economics. This school of thought, which had recently emerged in the economic world, proposed that economic expansion should not rely on boosting effective demand but rather stimulate incentives for investment and production to increase continual productivity. Therefore, it sought to decrease corporate and individual taxes on the one hand and do away with obstructions and restrictions on production and investment on the other.

During his time in office, Reagan cut taxes twice and lowered the highest income tax rate from 70% to 28%. Corporations profited greatly from accelerated depreciation and favorable research and development policies. Although the wealthy were not specifically targeted by these policies, they and corporations benefited the most. Therefore, some people called Reaganomics trickle-down economics.

Since Trump is a disciple of Reagan, he also cut taxes significantly after he took office. Thus, trickle-down economics naturally came to be associated with him, something neither he nor his aides objected to. President Joe Biden has made this a policy target, and many economists have joined in the attack because they believe that favoring the wealthy will not benefit the poor but rather increase the government deficit, which is unacceptable.

Because trickle-down economics has become a focal point of debate between both parties, the election results will determine the direction of America’s economic policy. But which side is right? Looking at Reagan’s achievements, complying with supply-side economics certainly brought an economy on the verge of a depression into a long period of prosperity. Its great contributions should prove its effectiveness. When Trump used supply-side economics, however, the contributions were not nearly as great, which may be a sign of how ineffective this approach can be.

The difference between Reagan and Trump is that when Reagan took office, income tax was too burdensome and really had a negative impact. Many complicated restrictions also hindered investment and production. Therefore, Reagan took sweeping action to correct bad practices and achieved great results. When Trump took office, however, the tax rate was already low, and a reduction from 39.6% to 37% was insignificant. Furthermore, many of the restrictions had long been relaxed, and the degree of economic freedom was completely different, so results were not obvious. Still, fundamentally, minimizing interference in and exploitation of investment and production as much as possible enables the entire economy to proceed energetically and smoothly. This is an unassailable maxim.

The author is an economic reviewer.


馬凱/涓滴經濟學 有功?有過?

近在眼前的美國總統大選,競爭愈趨激烈。川普與賀錦麗各攬勝場,民調不相上下,不到投票結果揭曉,無人敢斷言美國前途將由誰主。事實上由於國際政治經濟情勢目前紛雜混亂,不止美國,全球命運都與之密切相關。

到此刻為止,根據兩黨候選人明確提出的政見,在強硬反中、壯大美國經濟方面幾乎大同小異,唯獨一事,雙方立場截然相反,毫不退讓,而這又直接左右美國經濟政策的走向,那就是愈來愈受關注的所謂「涓滴經濟學」。

涓滴經濟學這一奇特的名詞,其實是在一九二九至三三年間美國經濟大蕭條時,一位幽默作家所杜撰;意指若對富人及企業大幅減稅,他們所獲得的利益,將會向一般窮苦大眾涓滴下滲,雨露均霑。半世紀後卻被用來指涉雷根總統的經濟政策。由於雷根被認為近代最成功的總統,其後共和黨即紛紛效法;一意效法雷根的川普不僅完全認同,而且在其總統首任即亦步亦趨地施行。

雷根總統除了在國際間一力扳倒蘇聯與日本兩大威脅美國獨霸的強權,經濟上的表現也十分顯眼。他上任時美國經濟正走向衰退,到一九八二年幾可與大蕭條相比;但在數年之間即恢復繁榮,而且一直延續到九○年代,是美國史上最長的繁榮期。他的經濟政策做了一個十分激進的變革;一改之前廣受歡迎的凱因斯學派政策,大膽引進一個嶄新的經濟主張:「供給學派」。這一個新興的學派在經濟學界初露頭角,主張經濟的擴張不應倚重拉抬有效需求,而是要激發投資與生產動機,使生產力不斷提升。因此,一方面要對企業與個人減稅;另一方面則要去除綁手綁腳令生產與投資受到阻礙的管制。

任內他兩度減稅,將所得稅最高稅率自百分之七十降至百分之二十八,企業則透過加速折舊及研發優惠,也獲利甚大。雖然未特別針對富人,但富人與企業畢竟受惠最大;因而好事者即將雷根經濟學稱為涓滴經濟學。

川普既是雷根的信徒,上任之後也大減稅,故涓滴經濟學自然落在他的身上,他與幕僚也認同不諱。這就成了拜登總統政策的箭靶;眾多經濟學家也群起攻難,認為嘉惠富人,貧窮民眾並不會獲益,卻讓政府赤字大幅增加,期期以為不可。

由於「涓滴經濟學」已成為兩黨爭辯經濟政策的焦點;因此大選結果誰勝誰負也會決定未來美國經濟政策的走向。但到底孰是孰非?從雷根總統的政績觀之,遵循「供給學派」的確使經濟由接近蕭條走向長期繁榮,厥功甚偉,應可證明其有效,但川普延用,成就並不如是卓著,又成為一個負面的佐證。二者最大的差別在於,雷根上任時,所得稅過度繁重,的確造成負面效果;許多繁
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