Jordan in Trump’s Calculus

Reading about former U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory prompts concern in terms of its impact on Jordan and the fear that he will impose a political solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict on Jordan; a modified version of the “Deal of the Century,” one based on the current military situation.

This concern is natural if you look at Trump’s previous presidency. However, precise political analysis must also focus on new factors, not just old ones. The newly elected president today comes into a more dangerous situation than in his previous presidency: bloody wars in Palestine and Lebanon; the matters of Iran, Iraq, and Syria; the Russia-Ukraine War; the challenges with China; and economic problems and internal division within the U.S. There is also the fact that Europe is leaning right and regressing economically, from Germany to the U.K. among others and amid other threats.

To gain insight into Trump’s policies in the coming period, we cannot only look to his former administration, which occurred under different circumstances. He arrives today under more difficult and dangerous conditions, and thus we can expect his policies toward Jordan to be limited in a regional and international context and expect that they will not entirely conform with his previous presidency, especially given the realization that the president-elect today is seeking vindication for his position and in view of the upheavals regional and international relations. Furthermore, he believes he is above the law and feels a need to prove that he can resolve conflicts, such as when he talks about ending war. This is an expression that may actually mean he is seeking to resolve battles through military confrontation and not pursuing peaceful resolution through diplomatic means, as some may think.

We must identify a new political plan in this analysis, specifically for the region, as we are today facing a joint American-Israeli project to shape the region and cleanse it of rogue states and opposition groups, as the U.S. sees fit. It is not true that we are facing Israel’s project supported militarily and financially by Washington. There is a big difference between these two statements. This project is ongoing and will be passed from administration to administration, and the intensity may increase. Now that the Democrats have drunk the blood of the region during Joe Biden’s administration, Trump will lean into more cruel solutions and more quickly.

This is a plan, that is, a shared American-Israeli project. Biden’s administration implemented it in Gaza through a “military deal of the century” that prepared the region for a “political deal of the century.” The Republican administration will implement this, now that it controls the Senate and the House of Representatives. So, given this, every narrative of the previous deal of the century will be subject to changes according to new geopolitical realities. This means that Trump — the one who previously stopped cut off funding for UNRWA, moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and stated throughout his campaign that Israel needed to expand — will create a new deal of the century, which would lead to a complete settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict. This deal would have major repercussions for Jordan and Egypt, as much as it will affect Palestine, without any regard for the cost these Palestinian border states will pay. These are costs that Jordan and Egypt could have dealt with previously; however, the current timing is entirely different. New circumstances could prompt a new policy from Washington toward the region at the expense of its states, a new deal of the century modified to account for the current war and the states targeted by the outcome.

The president-elect, who withdrew the United States from the Iran Nuclear Deal and demanded the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, will enter office under the pretense of ending the war. But this ending, as I pointed out, does not mean peace, but rather quick military action to eliminate threats. This means that, this time, the whole region is vulnerable to either complete submission to Washington’s pressure and its strategy, or refusal, which will lead to disruption and restructuring.

It's impossible to underestimate the effect of Trump’s victory on Jordan. Jordan has grown weaker on an international and regional scale in light of the fact that Israel today sees additional support coming its way and in light of Trump’s desire to prove that the previous administration wasted time in the long war contemplating plans and crises.

In Jordan, we need to understand our domestic situation differently, enhance cohesion and consensus, deal with dangerous challenges as much as possible, and prepare for all voluntary or forced scenarios.