Trump’s Words and Putin’s Calculus
Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 25 June 2025
by Nikolas Busse (link to
original)
The fact that Trump is endorsing NATO, even equivocally, is a concession by his standards. But we should not be fooled: He has already sown the seeds of doubt about America’s willingness to stand with its allies.
One will not hear Donald Trump say that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is a holy oath, as Joe Biden did. The fact that the president made somewhat equivocal, but ultimately supportive, remarks about the mutual defense pact at the NATO summit in The Hague was, by his standards, a notable concession.
After all, it was not only Europe’s minimal defense spending that catalyzed Trump’s years-long criticism of NATO; it was also his basic reservations about alliances. As is always the case with Trump, the about-face probably came about because he can present it as a success: He got the Europeans to drastically increase their military spending. That will be well-received by his base and is supposed to give the U.S. room to maneuver elsewhere, especially in Asia.
Rapprochement with Russia
Still, one should not confuse contractual questions with strategic ones, as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President Kaja Kallas is doing. With Trump as commander-in-chief, Vladimir Putin can make other calculations. Trump is not only continuing to work toward a rapprochement with Russia. With his often isolationist statements, he has sown doubt about whether the U.S. would really fight against Russia in case of emergency.
Not even during the Cold War could this question be answered as clearly as many think, including in Germany. For that reason, the Europeans themselves now need to raise the threshold for Putin.
One will not hear Donald Trump say that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is a holy oath, as Joe Biden did. The fact that the president made somewhat equivocal, but ultimately supportive, remarks about the mutual defense pact at the NATO summit in The Hague was, by his standards, a notable concession.
After all, it was not only Europe’s minimal defense spending that catalyzed Trump’s years-long criticism of NATO; it was also his basic reservations about alliances. As is always the case with Trump, the about-face probably came about because he can present it as a success: He got the Europeans to drastically increase their military spending. That will be well-received by his base and is supposed to give the U.S. room to maneuver elsewhere, especially in Asia.
Rapprochement with Russia
Still, one should not confuse contractual questions with strategic ones, as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President Kaja Kallas is doing. With Trump as commander-in-chief, Vladimir Putin can make other calculations. Trump is not only continuing to work toward a rapprochement with Russia. With his often isolationist statements, he has sown doubt about whether the U.S. would really fight against Russia in case of emergency.
Not even during the Cold War could this question be answered as clearly as many think, including in Germany. For that reason, the Europeans themselves now need to raise the threshold for Putin.
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