US at a Crossroads
Trump’s greatest triumph may mark the beginning of the end of his power.
On July 4, Americans let it rip, traditionally with pyrotechnics and fireworks, because it is their national holiday, commemorating their independence as a democratic state.
This year, though, President Donald Trump also set off political fireworks. He managed to get both houses of Congress to pass his One Big Beautiful Bill just in time for the holiday. Trump’s megalomania and childishness come together in its title, just as everything that he has ever promised his loyal followers comes together in what it contains: tax reductions, border closings, military spending.
But his bombshell threatens to backfire because it contains a triple risk: for the world, for allies like Germany, but also for Trump himself. Thus, his greatest triumph may mark the beginning of the end of his power. In addition to core MAGA promises, the legislation creates huge financial gaps — which is why there was resistance even in Trump’s own party until the very end. The federal deficit is expected to increase by about $3.3 trillion by 2035.
Moreover, benefits for billionaires will be paid for by cutting the social safety net and state subsidies that have always bothered Trump, especially for environmental protection. That poses the risk to the world: climate policy is being sabotaged, and a Trump, intoxicated by triumph,m is likely to be unyielding in peace and trade policy as well. In addition, the mega-debt will weaken the dollar and the U.S. economy; threatening inflation, rising interest rates, and a global financial crisis.
Europe will also be affected by the tariffs with which Trump intends to offset his spending, as well as by new spending for Ukraine, if Trump turns away from it in another effort to save money.
Trump may not care about any of that, but he cannot be indifferent to the most drastic consequences. They affect those who helped him come to power twice: workers, low-income earners, the lower-middle class, the poor, and the elderly. While the top income brackets will gain more than $12,000 per year, low-income brackets will lose $1,600 annually. The cuts to subsidies for social welfare, soup kitchens, and school meals hurt the poor, but even the middle class will suffer from price increases due to tariffs and inflation and cuts to health care.
If his voters have less money in their pockets, Trump will frustrate their most important hopes. Still, though, the Democrats may be celebrating too soon if they think they will win back those voters with a social platform. Trump’s fireworks also show how well he can assert himself in his party and across the entire country — even in the face of criticism from media, science, and politics.
So, the big question for this year’s Independence Day is, can Trump count on his network of super-rich buddies and right-wing media to channel the frustration of his base? Does the reference to stricter immigration policy and no taxes on tips already provide enough stability in a divided country?
If nothing else, the extent to which Trump has already corrupted the U.S. will manifest itself in whether the frustration that now turns on Trump will lead to a democratic correction in future elections. It is still possible that the poison of populism has already caused too much damage — or that Trump will use dishonest means to prevent his party from being punished. The U.S. thus stands at a crossroads on this July 4. It’s still unclear which path it will take.
On July 4, Americans let it rip, traditionally with pyrotechnics and fireworks, because it is their national holiday, commemorating their independence as a democratic state.
This year, though, President Donald Trump also set off political fireworks. He managed to get both houses of Congress to pass his One Big Beautiful Bill just in time for the holiday. Trump’s megalomania and childishness come together in its title, just as everything that he has ever promised his loyal followers comes together in what it contains: tax reductions, border closings, military spending.
But his bombshell threatens to backfire because it contains a triple risk: for the world, for allies like Germany, but also for Trump himself. Thus, his greatest triumph may mark the beginning of the end of his power. In addition to core MAGA promises, the legislation creates huge financial gaps — which is why there was resistance even in Trump’s own party until the very end. The federal deficit is expected to increase by about $3.3 trillion by 2035.
Moreover, benefits for billionaires will be paid for by cutting the social safety net and state subsidies that have always bothered Trump, especially for environmental protection. That poses the risk to the world: climate policy is being sabotaged, and a Trump, intoxicated by triumph,m is likely to be unyielding in peace and trade policy as well. In addition, the mega-debt will weaken the dollar and the U.S. economy; threatening inflation, rising interest rates, and a global financial crisis.
Europe will also be affected by the tariffs with which Trump intends to offset his spending, as well as by new spending for Ukraine, if Trump turns away from it in another effort to save money.
Trump may not care about any of that, but he cannot be indifferent to the most drastic consequences. They affect those who helped him come to power twice: workers, low-income earners, the lower-middle class, the poor, and the elderly. While the top income brackets will gain more than $12,000 per year, low-income brackets will lose $1,600 annually. The cuts to subsidies for social welfare, soup kitchens, and school meals hurt the poor, but even the middle class will suffer from price increases due to tariffs and inflation and cuts to health care.
If his voters have less money in their pockets, Trump will frustrate their most important hopes. Still, though, the Democrats may be celebrating too soon if they think they will win back those voters with a social platform. Trump’s fireworks also show how well he can assert himself in his party and across the entire country — even in the face of criticism from media, science, and politics.
So, the big question for this year’s Independence Day is, can Trump count on his network of super-rich buddies and right-wing media to channel the frustration of his base? Does the reference to stricter immigration policy and no taxes on tips already provide enough stability in a divided country?
If nothing else, the extent to which Trump has already corrupted the U.S. will manifest itself in whether the frustration that now turns on Trump will lead to a democratic correction in future elections. It is still possible that the poison of populism has already caused too much damage — or that Trump will use dishonest means to prevent his party from being punished. The U.S. thus stands at a crossroads on this July 4. It’s still unclear which path it will take.
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