Subtle Insights: Trump out of His Depth

Published in Takungpao
(Hong Kong) on 9 August 2025
by 周八骏 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Hannah La Porte. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
The Economist’s April 26, 2025 issue carried the cover headline, “Only 1,361 Days To Go.”* Inside and outside the United States, many people hope that once Donald Trump finishes his four-year presidential term, his successor will reverse course and change the direction of both the U.S. and the world.

Indeed, time is not on Trump’s side, because both domestic and international circumstances are working against him. At home, Trump faces challenges from Democrats as well as criticism from differing voices within his own Republican Party.

On July 30, 12 Democratic members of the House of Representatives filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing it of preventing lawmakers from inspecting detention facilities run by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, thereby obstructing congressional oversight.

That same day, senior Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, speaking at an event hosted by the McCain Institute think tank, said he hoped President Trump would “continue moving in the direction he has taken in recent weeks”* regarding the Russia–Ukraine conflict — meaning increasing pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. McConnell, age 83 and about to reach the end of more than four decades in Congress, also urged the U.S. to raise defense spending from its current 3.4% of gross domestic product to 5%, aligning with Trump’s demands on other NATO members.

For now, Republican dissent toward Trump remains mild. But as the midterm elections draw closer, differences and disputes among the party’s various factions are likely to turn into real pressure on him. Abroad, Trump’s challenges are greater. From July 28-30, the foreign ministers of France and Saudi Arabia jointly chaired the High-Level International Conference on Peaceful Resolution of the Palestinian Issue and Implementation of the Two-State Solution at the United Nations headquarters in New York. Over 120 countries attended, but the U.S. and Israel boycotted the meeting.

Since the outbreak of the latest round of armed conflict between Israel and Palestine on Oct. 7, 2023, the death toll in Gaza has exceeded 60,000. Israel’s actions against Palestinians amount to genocide, and Gaza is in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres urged the international community not to stop at “words of goodwill.”

While this conference, too, only expressed solidarity through statements and resolutions, it still carried political weight: before the meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would soon recognize the State of Palestine; during the meeting, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain would do so under certain conditions; and on the closing day, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made the same conditional pledge.

As of March 2025, 145 of the U.N.’s 193 member states had recognized Palestine. If France, the U.K. and Canada follow through, that number will rise to 148. Given their standing in the Western bloc, these recognitions would deal a serious blow to Trump’s Middle East strategy.

Trump has repeatedly postponed his promised mediation in the Russia–Ukraine war, but he has now had to admit it is a task neither he nor the U.S. can accomplish. He issued what he called a “final ultimatum” to Russia — a deadline to cease fire — and a separate “final ultimatum” to China, India and Brazil, demanding they stop importing Russian oil or face 100% secondary tariffs from the U.S.

But Putin refuses to yield from his established strategic plan. China, with its strategic autonomy, is not about to alter its Ukraine policy because of Trump’s threats. In short, Trump’s set approach to Ukraine has failed. Western media have even reported that he is conspiring — together with certain British contacts — to replace the Ukrainian president, lending credibility to McConnell’s remark that Trump has shifted his stance on the conflict.

In his first term as president, Trump announced a realignment of U.S. global strategy, naming China and Russia as America’s main adversaries. In the latter half of that term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared China the “primary” adversary. When Joe Biden took office, he said China was the only country with both the capability and intent to challenge the U.S., while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called China a “step-by-step challenge.”*

Back in the White House, Trump has clearly declared that confronting China is again the central focus of his global strategy. But facing China’s rapidly expanding strategic autonomy, he has let Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, designed to contain China, fall into neglect and has also weakened AUKUS, the U.S.–U.K.–Australia security partnership. In his bid to curb China, Trump appears increasingly powerless.

Trump knows that time is working against him. On July 29, during an appearance on the U.S. podcast First, he remarked that the White House lacked a proper-sized indoor ballroom and said he intended to fix that. On July 31, the White House press secretary announced that Trump had decided to build a 650-person indoor ballroom for the White House, intriguingly scheduled to be ready in early 2029. Some say this suggests Trump has not abandoned his ambition to seek reelection.

*Editor’s note: These quotes, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.


 2025年4月26日出版的《经济学人》周刊封面标题是《仅剩1361日》。美国内外,不少人期盼特朗普做完4年总统任期后下台,继任者改弦更张,改变美国和全球局面。

  的确,时间对特朗普不利。因为,美国内外局势不利于特朗普。在美国内部,特朗普面对民主党挑战,也面对共和党内部不同意见的质疑。

  7月30日,12名民主党众议员向法院提起对特朗普政府的诉讼,指控特朗普政府阻止国会议员进入美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)管理的拘留设施视察,妨碍国会对这些设施的监督。

  同日,共和党资深参议员米奇.麦康奈尔在智库麦凯恩研究所举办的活动上称,希望特朗普总统在对待俄乌冲突上“继续朝着他最近几周所走的方向前进”,即向俄罗斯总统普京施压。年届83岁、即将结束其逾40年国会议员生涯的麦康奈尔,呼吁美国将自己的国防支出占GDP的比例,从目前的3.4%提高至5%,同特朗普对北约其他成员国的要求一致。

  共和党内部至今对特朗普的不同意见是温和的。但距离明年中期选举越来越接近,党内不同利益派别的分歧甚至争拗,皆会转为对特朗普施压。

  特朗普的更大挑战来自国外。7月28日至30日,在纽约联合国总部,法国和沙特阿拉伯的外交部长共同主持“和平解决巴勒斯坦问题和实施‘两国方案’高级别国际会议”,会议有120多个国家出席,但美国和以色列却抵制会议。

  自2023年10月7日巴以爆发新一轮武装冲突以来,加沙的死亡人数已超过6万人。以色列对巴勒斯坦人实施种族灭绝,加沙陷入空前恶劣的人道绝境。联合国秘书长古特雷斯敦促国际社会不要继续停留于“善意的言辞”。

  尽管这次会议依然是以语言和文字声援巴勒斯坦人民。但是,法国总统马克龙在会前称法国即将承认巴勒斯坦国;英国首相斯塔默在会议期间称英国将在一定条件下承认巴勒斯坦国;加拿大总理卡尼在会议结束日称加拿大也将在一定条件下承认巴勒斯坦国。

  截至2025年3月,联合国193个成员国中,已有145个承认巴勒斯坦国,如果法英加履行承诺,则将增至148个。而且,以法英加在西方阵营的地位,三国承认巴勒斯坦国将对特朗普的中东战略造成沉重打击。

  特朗普把他承诺调停俄乌冲突的时间不断加长,但他终于不得不承认,这是一项他和美国无力完成的任务。他对俄罗斯下了所谓“最后通牒”,即限定时间要求俄停火。他也对购买俄罗斯石油的中国、印度和巴西下了所谓“最后通牒”,即要求三国停止从俄罗斯进口石油,否则,将被美国政府加征100%的次级关税。

  然而,普京坚持其既定战略部署,不可能屈服。中国拥有战略自主能力,不可能因特朗普威胁而改变自己对待乌克兰问题的方针。在乌克兰问题上,特朗普既定战略方针告失败。西方媒体流传他正密谋改换乌克兰总统,而且,是同英国有关方面一起商讨。佐证美国共和党资深参议员麦康奈尔关于特朗普改变了他处理俄乌冲突立场之言不虚。

  特朗普在其第一任美国总统时宣布调整美国全球战略,称中俄是美国主要对手。在特朗普第一任期后半段,其国务卿蓬佩奥明确宣布中国是美国最主要对手。拜登接任后称,中国是唯一既有实力也有意图挑战美国的国家,拜登政府的国防部长奥斯汀称中国对美国构成“步步进逼的挑战”。

  特朗普重主白宫后明确宣布其全球战略重心是对付中国。但他面对中国快速提升战略自主能力,把拜登打造的围堵中国的“印太经济框架”(IPEF)打入冷宫,并且削弱另一个拜登构筑的威慑中国的“美英澳三边安全伙伴关系”(AUKUS),特朗普试图遏制中国更显得力不从心。

  特朗普明白时间对其不利。7月29日,他在美国《第一播客》节目中,评论白宫缺乏具规模的室内宴会厅,声称他将弥补这一缺憾。7月31日,白宫发言人宣布,特朗普决定为白宫兴建一个能容纳650人的室内宴会厅,耐人寻味的是拟2029年初使用。有人声称,特朗普似乎仍未放弃争取连任的图谋。
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