United States: A Budget Stalemate with Greater Consequences This Time?
Suspense grips Washington periodically. Every few months, the country holds its breath in fear of a new government shutdown.
The crisis was unavoidable this time. Since midnight Wednesday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are unemployed,* with government departments and agencies forced to close their doors for lack of funding.
There is nothing exceptional about the event. Since the current budget process was adopted,in the mid-1970s, the federal government has found itself deadlocked 20 times. This marks the 21st episode.
Nevertheless, the new standoff between the Democrats and Republicans could have deeper ramifications this time around. Donald Trump makes no secret of his intention to take advantage of the impasse to impose deep cuts to the federal bureaucracy.
The president sees the current shutdown as an opportunity to make irreversible cuts in programs dear to Democrats. If the threat does not seem to have impressed his opponents, it should nevertheless not be taken lightly.
A Man in the Shadows
Away from the cameras, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, a Donald Trump appointee, has been preparing for years. Russell Vought lacks the flamboyance of Elon Musk, initially charged with cleaning house within the federal administration, but the man is studious and methodical, which could make him even more effective.
In a recent, lengthy profile of Vought, The New York Times revealed the strategy he has developed. First and foremost he wants to demonstrate that many to show that many civil servants do nothing essential. His ultimate goal is to dismantle — piece by piece — the Washington bureaucracy, which he compares to a “cartel.”
The Department of Education, which he reproaches for indoctrinating children, and the Internal Revenue Service that he contends hunts down the poor to feed the bureaucratic ogre are in Vought’s line of fire, among other agencies.
“Russ knows exactly how to dismantle the Deep State and end Weaponized Government,” Trump boasted when he nominated Vought.
One of the strategies Vought has deployed since taking office is precisely not spending all the money granted to programs deemed to be of lesser importance. Nearly $5 billion allocated to international aid has thus remained in the government’s coffers during the last fiscal year, which experts say is illegal.
Seeing Congress delay approval of new funding will not keep the OMB director up at night. It could even give him reasons to justify not meeting established targets should a judicial battle ensue.
Democrats Still Searching for Their Identity
If the Republican strategy is crystal clear, the Democrats’ strategy needs fine-tuning. In March, the party faced criticism from constituents on the far left after they allowed an initial series of budgetary measures to pass. Its leaders swore they would not be caught out again.
Democratic Party leaders believe they have sensed an opportunity by demanding the continuation of tax credits that allow lower-income Americans to pay their health insurance premiums, set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats believe that a concession by Republicans on this issue would boost their chances in next year’s midterm elections.
However, the party does not appear to be coordinated when it comes to the message, with prominent Democrats aiming much higher. “We’re not going to give a blank check to a lawless president. We’ve all talked about what he has done to date. … Trampling on the rights of Americans, undermining our democracy, undermining our Constitution. ... There’s a whole lot at stake here,” Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen declared yesterday.
In short, the Democratic camp appears to be asking itself again whether it is better to exercise a certain pragmatism toward Trump or to adopt a more systematic, obstructionist approach.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that the government shutdown is being acutely felt by social service agencies that do not offer services deemed essential. If just 5% of Department of Homeland Security employees are currently out of work, that percentage climbs to 89% among employees at the Environmental Protection Agency.
For How Long?
The two most recent government shutdowns took place during Trump’s first term — the 35-day outage Dec. 21, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019, was the longest in history.
However, it is far from certain that prolonging the impasse for that long would benefit one camp or the other this time. A prolonged stoppage could undermine Trump’s economic record by pushing unemployment upward, but Democrats risk prematurely wasting their preelection ammunition by dragging their feet too much.
Ultimately, everything will depend on who Americans blame for the deadlock. The Republicans only need to persuade five Democratic senators to vote with them to end the current impasse.
*Editor’s note: Federal employees are not unemployed, many are furloughed, and others are required to work without pay until the government reopens.
The crisis was unavoidable this time. Since midnight Wednesday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are unemployed,* with government departments and agencies forced to close their doors for lack of funding.
There is nothing exceptional about the event. Since the current budget process was adopted,in the mid-1970s, the federal government has found itself deadlocked 20 times. This marks the 21st episode.
Nevertheless, the new standoff between the Democrats and Republicans could have deeper ramifications this time around. Donald Trump makes no secret of his intention to take advantage of the impasse to impose deep cuts to the federal bureaucracy.
The president sees the current shutdown as an opportunity to make irreversible cuts in programs dear to Democrats. If the threat does not seem to have impressed his opponents, it should nevertheless not be taken lightly.
A Man in the Shadows
Away from the cameras, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, a Donald Trump appointee, has been preparing for years. Russell Vought lacks the flamboyance of Elon Musk, initially charged with cleaning house within the federal administration, but the man is studious and methodical, which could make him even more effective.
In a recent, lengthy profile of Vought, The New York Times revealed the strategy he has developed. First and foremost he wants to demonstrate that many to show that many civil servants do nothing essential. His ultimate goal is to dismantle — piece by piece — the Washington bureaucracy, which he compares to a “cartel.”
The Department of Education, which he reproaches for indoctrinating children, and the Internal Revenue Service that he contends hunts down the poor to feed the bureaucratic ogre are in Vought’s line of fire, among other agencies.
“Russ knows exactly how to dismantle the Deep State and end Weaponized Government,” Trump boasted when he nominated Vought.
One of the strategies Vought has deployed since taking office is precisely not spending all the money granted to programs deemed to be of lesser importance. Nearly $5 billion allocated to international aid has thus remained in the government’s coffers during the last fiscal year, which experts say is illegal.
Seeing Congress delay approval of new funding will not keep the OMB director up at night. It could even give him reasons to justify not meeting established targets should a judicial battle ensue.
Democrats Still Searching for Their Identity
If the Republican strategy is crystal clear, the Democrats’ strategy needs fine-tuning. In March, the party faced criticism from constituents on the far left after they allowed an initial series of budgetary measures to pass. Its leaders swore they would not be caught out again.
Democratic Party leaders believe they have sensed an opportunity by demanding the continuation of tax credits that allow lower-income Americans to pay their health insurance premiums, set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats believe that a concession by Republicans on this issue would boost their chances in next year’s midterm elections.
However, the party does not appear to be coordinated when it comes to the message, with prominent Democrats aiming much higher. “We’re not going to give a blank check to a lawless president. We’ve all talked about what he has done to date. … Trampling on the rights of Americans, undermining our democracy, undermining our Constitution. ... There’s a whole lot at stake here,” Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen declared yesterday.
In short, the Democratic camp appears to be asking itself again whether it is better to exercise a certain pragmatism toward Trump or to adopt a more systematic, obstructionist approach.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that the government shutdown is being acutely felt by social service agencies that do not offer services deemed essential. If just 5% of Department of Homeland Security employees are currently out of work, that percentage climbs to 89% among employees at the Environmental Protection Agency.
For How Long?
The two most recent government shutdowns took place during Trump’s first term — the 35-day outage Dec. 21, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019, was the longest in history.
However, it is far from certain that prolonging the impasse for that long would benefit one camp or the other this time. A prolonged stoppage could undermine Trump’s economic record by pushing unemployment upward, but Democrats risk prematurely wasting their preelection ammunition by dragging their feet too much.
Ultimately, everything will depend on who Americans blame for the deadlock. The Republicans only need to persuade five Democratic senators to vote with them to end the current impasse.
*Editor’s note: Federal employees are not unemployed, many are furloughed, and others are required to work without pay until the government reopens.
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