Greenland, Venezuela: Donald Trump Caught at a Crossroad*
The world has not yet recovered from the American intervention in Venezuela, and tensions are already rising over Greenland. This is not a new issue, but U.S. threats of a forceful occupation of the island after the incident in Caracas should be taken seriously. This is proof that the world has completely changed in the span of just 12 months.
On the one hand, the U.S. president declares that he wants world peace. On the other hand, he threatens to occupy Greenland and once again conducts an armed intervention on the territory of a sovereign country — after Iran and Nigeria, now it’s Venezuela. The latter is geographically at least within the scope of the Monroe Doctrine. But Iran? Nigeria? Israel? Or Indochina, where an armed conflict has allegedly ended? This is the Monroe Doctrine in an expanded, one could say, global version.
Where is the consistency? Well, it's there, but a little bit deeper. The answer can be found in the U.S. National Security Strategy, the pillar of which is not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0 but something completely different: the declaration of the role of power politics, which has become the basis of American politics. It's the principle of the right to use force wherever the interests of the U.S. require it. The notorious “spheres of influence,” about which oceans of ink have been spilled, are nothing more than the political result of power politics. And most importantly, they have very fluid boundaries. It's a bit like Donald Trump announcing to the world: You will have as many of your spheres of influence as you can win, as much as you grab. The rest belongs to us. This is especially important for relations between the warring Russia and Ukraine.
Did Trump Realize That Vladimir Putin Is an Illusory Giant? The Abduction of Nicolas Maduro Was a Test
In the Trump cabinet, there was a belief that Putin could easily expand his zone of influence to include Kyiv, and there was general agreement with this; hence the U.S. president's ambiguous attitude toward Putin. It's possible that this is the narrative that Trump heard directly from the Kremlin’s resident and therefore, almost as directly, demanded concessions from Kyiv. But months have gone by and little changes at the front. Putin's army is not moving forward, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is proving to Trump and the world that Russia cannot win this war. This is an important message for the White House's resident. Above all, it is proof of Russia’s weakness. From the U.S. perspective, this means a smaller sphere of Moscow’s influence — and, at the same time, a larger one for the U.S.
Has Trump realized yet that Putin is an illusory giant, and Russia a colossus with feet of clay? The change in attitude toward Russia and Ukraine in recent days seems to be the best proof of this. A kind of test for the reach of “spheres of influence” was the latest attack on Venezuela and the abduction of President Maduro from his private bedroom. An operation straight out of films such as “Mission Impossible” or "James Bond" proved what a perfect instrument of military intervention Washington has at its disposal.
Of course, the Maduro case was not about drugs. The goals were, in my opinion, three. First, a brutal affirmation of the Monroe Doctrine: The two Americas are our sphere of influence, and we're keeping everyone out of it — especially China and Russia. Second, it aimed to test the reactions of political rivals. What will Maduro's political allies do? Will they do anything at all, and if they do, what will it be, and when? Third, Trump is after oil. Venezuela holds one-fifth of the world's oil resources. At the same time, oil production in Venezuela has declined as a result of the wear and tear of mining installations. And most important, 80% of Venezuelan oil has gone to China. The U.S. seizure of these resources will be a blow to China's economy. It also means that China will have to buy oil elsewhere. Where? From Russia, of course. This will bring the two countries closer but at the same time strengthen Putin's client-state relationship with Xi Jinping. It will be easier for Beijing to force better prices from Moscow and a kind of natural barter economy, where China will pay for oil, not with cash, but with its commercial production, technology, and so on. Which means we will be dealing with a gradual Sinicization of Russia.
Which Countries Is Trump Threatening To Attack? Risky Game of Playing the World's Policeman
And the last, perhaps most important point. In practice, Trump's actions prove that not only does he not distance himself from American foreign interventions, which he has criticized, but goes even further. Does he understand that the problem with involvement in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq was not the interventions themselves, but the final success? That is, in other words, it is not difficult to strike, but it's hard to achieve the intended strategic goals. That goal was not achieved in Vietnam, nor in Afghanistan, nor in Iraq. Will it be achieved in Syria? We don't know yet.
Trump, contrary to his earlier declarations, increasingly wants to play the role of the world's policeman (this, incidentally, is the purpose of the announced construction of a 25-battleship fleet). He took responsibility for the Middle East (Israel, Palestine and Syria); now for Venezuela; he threatens to take responsibility for Iran and demolish the map of the Americas (Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Colombia). That's more than Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Is this not too much? Especially since it is not the interventions that are difficult, but the achievement of strategic goals?
Trump is playing a very risky game. And he is walking on the edge of a cliff. One false step and he will fall into the abyss, leaving his country in an even worse situation than it is in today.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
On the one hand, the U.S. president declares that he wants world peace. On the other hand, he threatens to occupy Greenland and once again conducts an armed intervention on the territory of a sovereign country — after Iran and Nigeria, now it’s Venezuela. The latter is geographically at least within the scope of the Monroe Doctrine. But Iran? Nigeria? Israel? Or Indochina, where an armed conflict has allegedly ended? This is the Monroe Doctrine in an expanded, one could say, global version.
Where is the consistency? Well, it's there, but a little bit deeper. The answer can be found in the U.S. National Security Strategy, the pillar of which is not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0 but something completely different: the declaration of the role of power politics, which has become the basis of American politics. It's the principle of the right to use force wherever the interests of the U.S. require it. The notorious “spheres of influence,” about which oceans of ink have been spilled, are nothing more than the political result of power politics. And most importantly, they have very fluid boundaries. It's a bit like Donald Trump announcing to the world: You will have as many of your spheres of influence as you can win, as much as you grab. The rest belongs to us. This is especially important for relations between the warring Russia and Ukraine.
Did Trump Realize That Vladimir Putin Is an Illusory Giant? The Abduction of Nicolas Maduro Was a Test
In the Trump cabinet, there was a belief that Putin could easily expand his zone of influence to include Kyiv, and there was general agreement with this; hence the U.S. president's ambiguous attitude toward Putin. It's possible that this is the narrative that Trump heard directly from the Kremlin’s resident and therefore, almost as directly, demanded concessions from Kyiv. But months have gone by and little changes at the front. Putin's army is not moving forward, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is proving to Trump and the world that Russia cannot win this war. This is an important message for the White House's resident. Above all, it is proof of Russia’s weakness. From the U.S. perspective, this means a smaller sphere of Moscow’s influence — and, at the same time, a larger one for the U.S.
Has Trump realized yet that Putin is an illusory giant, and Russia a colossus with feet of clay? The change in attitude toward Russia and Ukraine in recent days seems to be the best proof of this. A kind of test for the reach of “spheres of influence” was the latest attack on Venezuela and the abduction of President Maduro from his private bedroom. An operation straight out of films such as “Mission Impossible” or "James Bond" proved what a perfect instrument of military intervention Washington has at its disposal.
Of course, the Maduro case was not about drugs. The goals were, in my opinion, three. First, a brutal affirmation of the Monroe Doctrine: The two Americas are our sphere of influence, and we're keeping everyone out of it — especially China and Russia. Second, it aimed to test the reactions of political rivals. What will Maduro's political allies do? Will they do anything at all, and if they do, what will it be, and when? Third, Trump is after oil. Venezuela holds one-fifth of the world's oil resources. At the same time, oil production in Venezuela has declined as a result of the wear and tear of mining installations. And most important, 80% of Venezuelan oil has gone to China. The U.S. seizure of these resources will be a blow to China's economy. It also means that China will have to buy oil elsewhere. Where? From Russia, of course. This will bring the two countries closer but at the same time strengthen Putin's client-state relationship with Xi Jinping. It will be easier for Beijing to force better prices from Moscow and a kind of natural barter economy, where China will pay for oil, not with cash, but with its commercial production, technology, and so on. Which means we will be dealing with a gradual Sinicization of Russia.
Which Countries Is Trump Threatening To Attack? Risky Game of Playing the World's Policeman
And the last, perhaps most important point. In practice, Trump's actions prove that not only does he not distance himself from American foreign interventions, which he has criticized, but goes even further. Does he understand that the problem with involvement in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq was not the interventions themselves, but the final success? That is, in other words, it is not difficult to strike, but it's hard to achieve the intended strategic goals. That goal was not achieved in Vietnam, nor in Afghanistan, nor in Iraq. Will it be achieved in Syria? We don't know yet.
Trump, contrary to his earlier declarations, increasingly wants to play the role of the world's policeman (this, incidentally, is the purpose of the announced construction of a 25-battleship fleet). He took responsibility for the Middle East (Israel, Palestine and Syria); now for Venezuela; he threatens to take responsibility for Iran and demolish the map of the Americas (Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Colombia). That's more than Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Is this not too much? Especially since it is not the interventions that are difficult, but the achievement of strategic goals?
Trump is playing a very risky game. And he is walking on the edge of a cliff. One false step and he will fall into the abyss, leaving his country in an even worse situation than it is in today.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
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