Donald Trump’s Defeat in the Iran War
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 26 March 2026
by Andreas Schwarzkopf (link to
original)
The U.S. president is trapped. An offensive in the Iran war would cost him the midterm elections, but Israel will not allow a withdrawal. All he can do now is wait it out.
U.S. President Donald Trump has already lost his war against the mullah regime. He is still fighting back with the well-known combo of threats and alleged talks that make him unpredictable. But the hoopla cannot hide the fact that he has no longer has any viable options. The ayatollahs are still too strong for a face-saving outcome at the negotiating table.
He cannot go on the offensive because, to achieve a decisive breakthrough, securing the Strait of Hormuz, and especially a ground offensive to topple the Islamist regime, would not only kill many American soldiers, but also further increase oil prices. Both scenarios would deliver Trump and his Republicans a defeat in the November midterms and turn Trump into a lame duck for the rest of his term in office.
He cannot end the armed conflict because his Israeli ally wants to continue attacking the theocracy. And so, for Trump, the only option is to wait until Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government has weakened Iran militarily enough and decimated its leadership so much that the country will no longer pose a significant threat to Israel for the time being.
Until then, Trump will continue giving ultimatums and letting them lapse or try to polish his record with limited military strikes. Afterward, Trump will once again claim how successful he has been. His fans and devoted Republicans will agree with him and turn their attention to other problems.
Donald Trump and the Iran War: The Narcissist in the White House Will Not Like It
The verbal sparring will likely cost Trump further support. There are already some people in the MAGA camp complaining that the war against Iran is not only expensive, but also breaks Trump's election campaign promise to keep the U.S. out of wars. The narcissist in the White House will not like this, but he won’t care anyway, and will simply create a new controversy and continue his second term strategy.
The rest of the world will try its best to get through this period. The Gulf states will continue to keep their heads down and hope for a quick end to the Iran war. Netanyahu will weaken Israel's opponents for as long as he can. Hezbollah in Lebanon is to be pushed back behind the Litani River. Hamas in the Gaza Strip will then continue to be prevented from getting stronger. Calls from European countries, for example, for a lasting peace linked to a two-state solution will continue to go unheard. It is enough for Netanyahu and his allies if their opponents can no longer attack them.
Germany and the other EU countries will continue to debate whether the attack on Iran violated international law until the end of the war, but because of their dependence on the U.S. and because of Trump's moodiness, they prefer to not say it out loud, to avoid any harm.
When the gunfire ceases, the Europeans will participate, where possible, in securing the Strait of Hormuz for free navigation and their own trade routes. Unless, of course, they find a way to leave this task to the U.S. and the Gulf states. After all, it is well-known that this was not the European's war.
U.S. President Donald Trump has already lost his war against the mullah regime. He is still fighting back with the well-known combo of threats and alleged talks that make him unpredictable. But the hoopla cannot hide the fact that he has no longer has any viable options. The ayatollahs are still too strong for a face-saving outcome at the negotiating table.
He cannot go on the offensive because, to achieve a decisive breakthrough, securing the Strait of Hormuz, and especially a ground offensive to topple the Islamist regime, would not only kill many American soldiers, but also further increase oil prices. Both scenarios would deliver Trump and his Republicans a defeat in the November midterms and turn Trump into a lame duck for the rest of his term in office.
He cannot end the armed conflict because his Israeli ally wants to continue attacking the theocracy. And so, for Trump, the only option is to wait until Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government has weakened Iran militarily enough and decimated its leadership so much that the country will no longer pose a significant threat to Israel for the time being.
Until then, Trump will continue giving ultimatums and letting them lapse or try to polish his record with limited military strikes. Afterward, Trump will once again claim how successful he has been. His fans and devoted Republicans will agree with him and turn their attention to other problems.
Donald Trump and the Iran War: The Narcissist in the White House Will Not Like It
The verbal sparring will likely cost Trump further support. There are already some people in the MAGA camp complaining that the war against Iran is not only expensive, but also breaks Trump's election campaign promise to keep the U.S. out of wars. The narcissist in the White House will not like this, but he won’t care anyway, and will simply create a new controversy and continue his second term strategy.
The rest of the world will try its best to get through this period. The Gulf states will continue to keep their heads down and hope for a quick end to the Iran war. Netanyahu will weaken Israel's opponents for as long as he can. Hezbollah in Lebanon is to be pushed back behind the Litani River. Hamas in the Gaza Strip will then continue to be prevented from getting stronger. Calls from European countries, for example, for a lasting peace linked to a two-state solution will continue to go unheard. It is enough for Netanyahu and his allies if their opponents can no longer attack them.
Germany and the other EU countries will continue to debate whether the attack on Iran violated international law until the end of the war, but because of their dependence on the U.S. and because of Trump's moodiness, they prefer to not say it out loud, to avoid any harm.
When the gunfire ceases, the Europeans will participate, where possible, in securing the Strait of Hormuz for free navigation and their own trade routes. Unless, of course, they find a way to leave this task to the U.S. and the Gulf states. After all, it is well-known that this was not the European's war.
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