Bin Laden Is Dead But Counterterrorism Persists

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 3 May 2011
by Chen Yixin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Cheechen Chan. Edited by Gheanna Emelia.
U.S. President Barack Obama confirmed that bin Laden, the founder of the al-Qaida terrorist organization, has been executed in a raid by the CIA and remarked that that this is a righteous sanction for the victims of the 9/11 attacks. Americans might feel that they are at long last avenged, but the very source of terrorism has yet to be eliminated despite the death of the top terrorist leader. This belated yet righteous sanction, however, would very likely have a great impact on America’s global strategy layout.

The death of bin Laden “marks the most significant achievement to date” in America’s effort to defeat the al-Qaida organization, remarked Obama. In terms of terrorism, however, its cause varies in the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Despite the fact that bin Laden has vanished from the surface of the earth, as long as such factors as religion, race, disparity between the rich and the poor and various social injustices continue to exist, successors of terrorists will inevitably continue to spring up, let alone the already existing extremists of anti-socialism and anti-statism in the European, American, Latin American and African societies. Since a complete elimination of the origin of terrorism is rather impossible, mankind thus must be prepared not only to expect but also to fight terrorism to the end.

What is more horrifying, however, compared to terrorism and terrorist attacks, is the rise of state terrorism. As of today, America is unable to put a halt to Iran and North Korea; this has propelled them even more greatly in the direction of state terrorism as wielders of power with massive destructive weapons. Toward the end of the Clinton administration, toleration of development of nuclear weapons in Pakistan greatly encouraged North Korea and Iran to actively pursue the goal of becoming possessors of nuclear weapons. On the other hand, the nuclear treaty that the Bush administration sought to sign with India is no different from giving tacit recognition to India’s status as a nuclear empire alongside the nuclear club that consists of China, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Russia.

Possession of nuclear weapons will no doubt add impetus to terrorism. Moreover, under the circumstances whereby a nuclear vehicle is lacking precision, mankind globally will not only have to deal with the threat of the mushroom cloud but will also be more unable to attain the goal of escaping the nuclear winter. While North Korea and Iran are working toward becoming wielders of powers by possessing nuclear weapons, nations that are incapable of developing such weapons might be compelled to seek to develop biological weapons with the hope of — by means of these massive destructive weapons — resisting nuclear extorts from other nations or to threaten others.

The death of bin Laden has at least demonstrated that Bush’s counterterrorism battle is not entirely ridiculous. Toward the end of his term, when he fervently held up the banner of counterterrorism, he had at least accomplished the following: he garrisoned troops in the vicinities of Pakistan and Afghanistan to round up the leader of al-Qaida — and as a result, they became too caught up in and were exhausted by their bombings to launch another grand-scale terrorist attack; until the last day of his term, there was not another great terrorist attack in the vicinity of the U.S.; finally, on the surface, to say the very least, he successfully cut off any grand collusion among the terrorist syndicates in Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia and prevented the nightmare of what the late Professor Huntington described as the clash of civilizations from becoming a reality. Although the forgery of intelligence in the Iraq War was severely criticized both internationally and domestically, the accomplishment achieved in terms of the global counterterrorism cannot be disregarded.

Although benefiting from his predecessor, Obama, while enjoying the fruits of victory in this global counterterrorism struggle, has to shoulder the more and more difficult undertaking of counterterrorism with great caution and trepidation. We can get an idea of how he understands his new duty from the commands that he issued to the legations and consulates throughout the U.S., not to mention airports, ports and the U.S. military bases worldwide to heighten their alert in order to avert attacks from al-Qaida. In terms of the global strategy layout of the U.S., bin Laden’s death gives Obama an excuse to evacuate troops from Afghanistan and Iraq and thus allows America to enjoy more freedom and flexibility in its military deployment.

The authorities in Beijing have, since the beginning of the global counterterrorism battle, observed and speculated that American troops might get entangled in the mire of Afghanistan and Pakistan and that it would be extremely hard for them to extricate themselves from that prolonged situation — this would mean a great advantage for the global strategy layout of China. As an important ally of mainland China, Pakistan has actively cooperated with the Beijing strategy. Fearing that the U.S. might no longer value Pakistan should they have to execute bin Laden, Islamabad decided to only turn in to specialized squads of the U.S. fragments of information of the whereabouts of al-Qaida’s secondary leaders instead of bin Laden’s whereabouts that they had long ago had identified. This time, America has executed bin Laden once and for all and avenged the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This demonstrates the great revenge of Washington, which shows that any attackers of the U.S. would have to suffer; this is just like how America avenged Japan’s surprise attacks on Pearl Harbor by dropping two atomic bombs in Japan.

Although al-Qaida or terrorism of various forms will continue to pose a threat to the U.S. and other countries worldwide, the execution of the prime culprit will no doubt add a great boost to U.S. policy and its strategy of returning to Asia; the first one to be affected by this should be mainland China in emergence. Beijing has to make a decision between remaining at peace with Washington and challenging the economic gains of the U.S. and its allies in East Asia.

(The author is a professor of the Americas Research Center of Danjiang University.)


賓拉登已死 反恐戰未了
2011-05-03 中國時報 【陳一新】

 美國總統歐巴馬證實,蓋達恐怖組織領導人賓拉登已於日前遭中情局團隊格斃,並認為此舉是替九一一恐怖攻擊受害者所做的一項正義的制裁。雖然恐怖魔頭的死亡,或可稍解美國全國上下的復仇之心,但卻無助於消弭恐怖主義的根源。不過,此一遲來的正義卻極可能影響到美國的全球戰略布局。

 如歐巴馬所言,賓拉登的死亡是美國與蓋達組織之戰「迄今最有意義的成就」;但就恐怖主義而言,其在中東、南亞與東南亞各有不同成因。儘管賓拉登從地球消失,但只要這些宗教、種族、貧富差距,以及種種社會不正義繼續存在,就會湧現無數的後繼者,更不用說原先既存在於歐美拉非社會中的各種反社會主義與反國家主義的極端分子。既然恐怖主義的根源不太可能根除,則人類就要有與恐怖主義長相左右並與之周旋到底的心理準備。

 比恐怖主義與恐怖攻擊事件更恐怖的,則是國家恐怖主義的興起。迄今為止,美國對伊朗及北韓的束手無策,已將這兩個國家一步步推向挾大規模毀滅性武器自重的國家恐怖主義方向邁進。柯林頓政府後期,對巴基斯坦發展核武的縱容,更使北韓及伊朗更加積極追求成為擁核國家。而小布希政府尋求與印度簽署核子條約,不啻默認印度在中美英法俄所組成的核武俱樂部以外的核武大國地位。

 當國家恐怖主義擁有核武之後,將如虎添翼,特別是在核武載具精確性不夠的情況下,將使全球壟罩在蕈狀雲的威脅陰影之下,並讓人類距離擺脫核子冬天的目標更為遙遠。在北韓及伊朗一步步擁核自重之際,那些無力發展核武的國家,可能也將被迫尋求發展生化武器,以期藉著這些大規模毀滅性武器,抗拒來自其他國家的核子勒索,或威脅其他國家。

 賓拉登之死,至少證明小布希的全球反恐戰爭並非完全荒謬。終其任內,他在高舉反恐大纛時,至少做到下列幾點:第一,他派軍在巴基斯坦及阿富汗境內圍剿蓋達組織領袖,讓他們因成天遭受美軍的轟炸而疲於奔命,無暇發動大規模恐怖攻擊事件。第二,直到其任內最後一天,他未讓大規模恐怖攻擊在美國境內再度發生。第三,至少就表面而言,他成功地阻絕了中東、南亞及東南亞各地之間的恐怖主義集團進行大規模的串聯,而未讓已故哈佛大學教授杭亭頓所說的「文明的衝突」夢魘成真。儘管伊拉克戰爭因偽造情報而遭受到國內外的嚴重非議,但其在全球反恐戰爭中的建樹,倒也很難一筆抹殺。

 雖說「前人種樹,後人乘涼」,但是歐巴馬承接此一全球反恐戰爭的果實之際,卻也必須戒慎恐懼地扛起未來日益艱難的反恐大業。他對新任務的理解,可以從他下令美國各地使領館、機場、港口及全球美軍基地昇高警戒狀態,以防止遭遇蓋達組織的恐怖攻擊略窺梗概。從美國的全球戰略布局來看,賓拉登之死將使歐巴馬政府更有理由堂而皇之地從阿富汗與伊拉克境內逐步撤出,而使美國在全球軍事部署上有更大的自由度與彈性。

 在全球反恐戰爭之初,北京當局曾研判美軍可能長期陷入阿富汗及伊拉克的泥淖之中並難以抽身而出,這對中國大陸全球戰略布局當然是一大利多。作為中國大陸的重要盟國,巴基斯坦也積極配合北京戰略。儘管伊斯蘭馬巴德早就研判出賓拉登行蹤,但唯恐美國格斃賓拉登之後便不再重視巴基斯坦;因此,巴國僅將蓋達組織次級領袖的行蹤分批提供給美國的特種部隊。這次美國一舉格斃賓拉登,為九一一恐怖攻擊事件報了一箭之仇,充分顯示任何對美國的攻擊都將遭到華府的強大報復,一如美國當年為了報復日本奇襲珍珠港之仇,而在日本投下兩顆原子彈一樣。

 儘管蓋達組織或各式各樣的恐怖主義仍將威脅美國與世界其他各國,但元凶遭到格斃將有助於「美國重返亞洲」戰略的進一步推行,而首當其衝的,應該就是崛起中的中國大陸:北京當局必須在與華府和平相處或繼續挑戰美國及其盟國在東亞地區的利益之間做出選擇。

 (作者為淡江大學美洲研究所教授)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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