China-U.S. Negotiations on Asia-Pacific Affairs Clearly Show China's Weakness

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 14 May 2011
by Wang Chong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lisa Ferguson. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue held in Washington on May 10 — which has received a lot of attention — has an all-new agenda, holding a China-U.S. Strategic Security Dialogue for the first time. The two countries agreed to start Asia-Pacific affairs negotiations.

The assistant minister for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhang Zhijun, revealed that relevant officials from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. Department of State, respectively, would lead the talks. As for details such as the frequency of the negotiations, the decision will wait until after the first round of negotiations begins. It is predicted that the first round of negotiations will take place very soon.

China’s established mechanism for Asia-Pacific negotiations can be viewed from different angles. It can be considered positive or negative; it can be looked upon as a reflection of China’s rising power or as proof of the gap that still exists between China and the United States. It can be viewed as a sign that China has already become an influential power, or it can still be viewed as a sign that China is a regional power, but not a world power. It can be seen as a mechanism for deepening China-U.S. cooperation, or it can be seen as the United States surrounding and containing China just as before.

China-U.S. Negotiations Still Lacking Equilibrium

From a positive point of view, China-U.S. negotiations on Asia-Pacific affairs explain that the United States is conscious of Asia-Pacific affairs, especially security affairs. Without Chinese cooperation and coordination, there is no way for it to smoothly put things into effect. From a historical perspective, there is no doubt that this is the rise of China’s status. Temporarily ignoring the events before 1949, looking at post-1949 during the Korean War, the United States began to surround China. At that time, its approach toward socialist China was to swiftly eradicate it. Then China and the United States established diplomatic relations and China was merely America’s chess piece in its strategy against the Soviet Union. The crisis in the Taiwan Strait, the Yinhe Incident and the bombing of China’s embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the 1990s showed that the gap in power between China and the United States was large; the United States did not value China. Whereas today, there is no denying that the China-U.S. Asia-Pacific negotiations are a sign that China’s status has risen.

However, China cannot just be complacent in this; negotiations on Asia-Pacific affairs are inseparable from the issues of North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Island issue between China and Japan, issues in the South China Sea and other topics which could trigger war in China’s surroundings. All of these issues show that the United States is still in attack mode and that China is on the defensive; the United States. can calmly cause trouble for China, while China is just arguing strongly in order to safeguard its basic interests. Even if negotiations appear to be equal on the surface, in reality, negotiations between the two parties are uneven.

Judging from the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Strategic Security Dialogue, Asia-Pacific affairs negotiations and the “G2” of which Americans speak, China is a major power and has been treated as such by the United States. However, one important point reflected in the Asia-Pacific affairs negotiations is that China is still a genuine regional power, but it is not a global power; the gap in status between it and the global power of the United States is large, especially in the area of military security. Even though it is a regional power, it also faces pressure from the neighboring allies of the United States and China. Imagine if China really were a power on par with the might of global powers; then, at the same time China and the United States start negotiations on Asia-Pacific affairs, China-U.S. and North American affairs would also have to be discussed.

China’s Strategic Status is Not as Good as it Was Last Century

From the Strategic and Economic Dialogue to the Strategic Security Dialogue, there is no doubt that the mechanism for China-U.S. cooperation has made progress, and it will have an important effect on mutual China-U.S. cooperation in the Asia-Pacific and on reducing misunderstandings in the region. The assistant minister of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhang Zhijun, said, “If China and the United States cannot cooperate on Asia-Pacific regional affairs, then cooperation at the global level is out of the question. We believe that the establishment of this mechanism will aid in pushing both parties forward towards forming a pattern of positive interaction in the Asia-Pacific region, so as to be better about making an active effort for peace, stability and development of the Asia-Pacific region.”

However, looking at the subjects for the China-U.S. negotiations, one will realize that, from land to sea, and from various Central Asian countries to Japan and South Korea, in reality the United States has a military presence and has quietly succeeded in surrounding China; China’s strategic status is not even as good as it was in the previous century.

On May 6, in an article on America’s Foreign Policy magazine website, John Lee, a visiting scholar at America’s Hudson Institute, claimed that, “China remains a strategic loner in Asia, with Myanmar and North Korea as its only true friends.” Right now China understands its weak points very clearly. The United States does not need to lament that the good old days are irretrievably gone, but instead it ought to master how to take advantage of its own strengths. In other words, with its military force as a deterrent and the coordination of its allies, the United States occupies a superior status in Asia-Pacific affairs negotiations.

In brief, the establishment of a mechanism for China-U.S. Asia-Pacific affairs negotiations is not something that merits joy, nor is it a bad thing. The wise man said, “Why climb the mountain? Because the mountain is there.” Applying this saying, one could say, “Why negotiate? Because the problems are there.”

The author is a commentator on Chinese current events and is a special columnist.


王冲:中美磋商亚太事务凸显中国弱势

(2011-05-14)
王冲

  作为中美战略与经济对话的一项全新议程,备受关注的中美首次战略安全对话10日在华盛顿举行,两国同意启动亚太事务磋商。

  中国外交部副部长张志军透露,双方将分别由中国外交部和美国国务院的相关官员来牵头。至于磋商的频率等细节还需要等到首轮磋商开始以后来决定,预计首轮磋商很快就将举行。

  中国亚太事务磋商机制设立,可以从不同角度解读。可以是积极的看,也可以消极的看;可以看作中国实力上升的体现,也可以看作中国和美国尚有差距的明证;可以看作中国已然成为具有影响力的大国的标志,也可以看作是中国依旧是地区大国、而非世界大国的标志;可以看作是中美深入合作的机制,也可以看作美国依旧包围并遏制中国。

中美之间仍是不平衡的磋商

  积极地看,中美磋商亚太事务说明美国意识到亚太事务,尤其是安全事务,没有中国的合作与配合无法顺利推行。从历史的角度看,这毫无疑问是中国地位的上升。1949年前的事暂且不提,单是1949年以后,朝鲜战争美国开始对中国的围堵,那时对社会主义中国的态度是灭之而后快,此后中美建交,中国只不过是美国抗衡苏联大战略的一枚棋子,而20世纪90年代末的台海危机、银河号事件和轰炸中国驻南联盟使馆等事,说明中国实力与美国差距大,美国并不把中国放在眼里。而今,中美就亚太事务磋商,不能不说是中国地位提升的表现。

  但是,中国切不可就此沾沾自喜,亚太事务磋商,肯定离不开朝鲜问题、台海问题、中日钓鱼岛问题、南海问题等中国周边有可能引发战争的话题,这些都说明美国还处于攻势,中国处于守势,美国可以轻松地给中国制造麻烦,而中国只是为了维护基本的利益而据理力争。尽管表面看来是平等协商,但实际上双方是不平衡的磋商。

  从战略与经济对话、战略安全对话、亚太事务磋商以及美国人提出的G2这些情形看,中国是大国,也被美国当作大国对待。不过,亚太事务磋商机制所折射出的最重要一点是,中国还是一个地地道道的地区大国,而不是世界大国,和美国的世界大国地位差距很大,尤其是在军事安全领域。即便是地区大国的地位,也面临着美国和中国周边国家盟友的压力。试想,如果真的是和美国力量差不多的世界大国,在中美启动亚太事务磋商的同时,也一定会同时启动中美北美事务磋商。 

中国战略地位不比上世纪好

  从战略经济对话到战略安全对话,无疑是中美合作机制的进展,对中美在亚太地区互相合作、减少误判会起到重要作用。中国外交部的张志军副部长说:“中美如果不能在亚太地区进行合作,就谈不上在全球层面合作,相信该机制的建立有助于推动双方在亚太地区形成良性互动格局,以便更好地为亚太地区的和平稳定和发展做出积极努力。”
然而,看一眼中美磋商的话题,就会发现,从陆地到海洋,从中亚各国到日本、韩国,美国的军事存在实际上悄然完成了对中国的包围,中国的战略地位甚至不比上个世纪好。

  5月6日,美国赫德森研究所访问学者约翰·李在美国《外交政策》杂志网站撰文称,中国仍然是亚洲的一个战略上的孤独者,只有缅甸和朝鲜是它真正的朋友。中国现在很清楚自己的弱点。美国不要哀叹好日子已无可挽回地逝去,而应学会更好地利用自己的强项。也就是说,亚太事务磋商美国携军事威慑力和盟友的配合,占据优势地位。

  总而言之,中美亚太事务磋商机制的确立,不是值得欣喜之事,但也不是坏事。哲人说,为什么要爬山,因为山在那里;套用此语,可以说,为什么要磋商,因为问题就在那里。
  

  作者为中国时事评论员、专栏作者
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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