Who Is the Hegemon in North Africa, the U.S. or France?

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 27 May 2011
by Jun Xiliu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Derek Ha.
In the strategic game of silkworms swallowing the red bean cake of Libya, France, bombing Libya so energetically that it once ran out of bombs, is not necessarily the winner. It’s possible that the low-profile U.S. is the final winner in this military operation.

Gadhafi’s legal government didn’t fall and Gadhafi himself is not dead yet, but the U.S. and Libyan anti-government organizations seem to be discussing Gadhafi’s “funeral affairs.”

Two days ago, the Libyan anti-government organization “National Transitional Council” was invited to visit Washington and was received by Obama personally; it got $30 million in aid from the U.S. government. Although the discussion's content was not publicized, it definitely had something to do with the “reconstruction road map” after they seize power.

At the moment, France was leading NATO allies in launching another air raid in Tripoli. At the end of the war, if French pilots and army ground personnel look from the sky and see the bombed naval port, pier, oil field and towers filled with Americans who have nothing to do with Paris, what will they think?

If, in the war in Libya, there is no private deal amongst the brother countries of NATO, then the U.S. has unilaterally designed a beautiful trap from the very beginning, letting its British, French and other "brothers" jump into it.

In the beginning, it was a maze. The U.S. hypocritically let the French lead the war, making the international society and the pushy Sarkozy blindly happy for days. People thought that perhaps France was rising and the U.S. was losing its power and afraid of fighting. Such a situation fooled all the military researchers and army fans for days.

At the halfway point, it was proper business. When France fought to exhaustion, NATO took over the military command as per prior agreement. Even though there are more Europeans in NATO, the leading power is still the U.S. NATO, the so-called America’s Imperial Tool, equals America’s own army. The baton traveled in a circle, finally going back into the hand of the U.S.

Then, it was the target. After the U.S. grasped the actual commanding power, Libya was already in pieces, Gadhafi was dying, the anti-government organization was rising and the “National Transitional Council” was built; it was time for the U.S. to take its first real shot. The “National Transitional Council” would surely be controlled firmly by Americans; the council would do whatever Americans told them to. The estimated main steps are: The U.S. leads the reconstruction, letting the U.S. oil companies into Libya, building a bilateral (note that “bilateral” means the other side cannot intervene) friendship with the new government and building military bases in Libya (temporary or long-term, they will all hang in there forever anyway). After the situation matures, African military headquarters will be established, and so on.

If the NATO brother countries think about it, will the Libyan “National Transitional Council” open an office in Paris? And there is no need to even mention the UK. The council will always agree with the U.S. At most, the “National Transitional Council” may open a “transitional” office in Paris. The permanent office can only be opened in Washington, either in the White House or the Pentagon, you name it.

In Libya, a thousand things are waiting to be done. The “National Transitional Council” started from scratch. It has no extra money for some bottles of ink, and the staff is reluctant to buy a pizza; all expenses depend on the support from the U.S. The U.S. gave millions of dollars just for one time; France didn’t have a chance to even sponsor the council with money. The “National Transitional Council” started to work like this under the “cherishing,” “protection” and “care-taking” of the U.S.

The U.S., UK and France took advantage of the United Nations’ no-fly zone resolution. In the name of “stopping the humanitarian disaster” and at the expense of an even larger humanitarian disaster, they bombed Libyan territory terribly. In fact, this is a major game of strategic layout between the U.S. and France in North Africa.

France’s main oil source is North Africa, and it is traditionally more interested in that region than the Middle East since ancient times. France has been dreamed of building a Mediterranean sphere of influence and capturing Tripoli equals controlling part or a large part of North African and African affairs. Present Libyan political power is hard to conquer; Gadhafi is difficult to defeat, and with Gadhafi living, France’s dream cannot come true.

Although the present Libyan regime made peace with the U.S. and Gadhafi has long supported America’s anti-terrorism war, what the U.S. intends is to swallow all of Africa and establish an African military headquarters, including Tripoli and reaching out into the Mediterranean. However, Gadhafi is a hard hurdle to pass. Therefore, the United States wants to get rid of Gadhafi as soon as possible. On the surface, the U.S. and France fight together because of their hatred of Gadhafi, but in fact, they each have their own plans.

There can only be one alpha male, whether he’s from America or Europe. Once France pockets the Mediterranean and reaches Africa, touching the territory in which the U.S. believes there can be “no permanent allies, only permanent interests,” the U.S. will definitely turn against its so-called friend. One of the two will surely be hurt, and it will be very obvious which one that turns out to be.

If Sarkozy hasn’t won enough support from French citizens for the next presidential campaign during the bombing of Libya, it will surely be his fond dream to equal the U.S. in splitting forces in North Africa after killing Gadhafi.


军细柳:美国与法国北非布局,究竟谁是霸主?

2011-05-27 12:28 凤凰网

在蚕噬利比亚这块豆沙饼的战略博奕中,往往轰炸利比亚最起劲、直至炸弹一度告急的法国,不一定是胜利者。也许在这次军事行动显得低调的美国,最终却成了最大的赢家。

卡扎菲的合法政府还没倒台、卡扎菲本人也还没有死掉,美国和利比亚反政府组织,似乎在紧锣密鼓地商讨卡扎菲的“后事”。

两天前,利比亚反政府组织“全国过渡委员会”受邀访问华盛顿,被奥巴马亲自接见,并得到美国政府3000万美元的援助。商谈内容虽然没有公布,但肯定涉及反对派夺取政权后的“重建路线图”。

法国正领着北约兄弟,在的黎波里上空进行新一轮空袭的时候,当战斗结束后,法国的飞行员和军勤人员从空中望去,看到被炸得稀巴滥的军港、码头、油田及高楼恢复重建的身影,全是美国人,根本没有巴黎什么事儿,该作何感想?

轰炸利比亚的战斗中,如果北约兄弟们没有什么私下交易的话,那么,从一开始,美国单方面就精心设计好的一个美丽陷阱,算计着让法、英等小兄弟傻呵呵往里跳:

开始是迷魂阵。美国假惺惺地让法国人兴高采烈打头阵,让国际社会和爱出风头的萨科齐云里雾罩地高兴好几天,以为法国真的勃起来了、美国真的谦逊了、打仗打怕了,让军情研究人员、军迷们先喝了几天的糊涂酒。

中途才是正事。法国打得行将弹尽粮绝的紧要关头,按事先约定,北约接过了军事指挥权。虽然北约里头欧洲人多,其实一直都是美国在主导,有着美国利益的“护院师”之称的北约,等于是美国自己的军队一样。指挥棒划了一圈,又乖乖回到了美国的手里。

然后就是目的。美国实际指挥权掌握后,利比亚也被炸得稀巴滥了,卡扎菲也奄奄一息了,反政府组织也雄起来了,“全国过渡委员会”也成立了,美国也该真正出手了。“全国过渡委员会”必将被牢牢地攥在美国人手里,说啥就是啥,美国说啥他做啥,估计主要的几大步是:美国主导重建,美国石油企业进来,与新政府建立双边(注意:是别国不能插手的“双边”)友好关系,在利比亚建立军事基地(临时的、长期的,反正从此赖着不走的),条件一俟成熟,即刻建立非洲司令部等等。

北约兄弟们想一想,利比亚“全国过渡委员会”到巴黎去开个办公室办公行不行?英国没说的,什么事它都顺了美国的、随了美国的。“全国过渡委员会”最多去个人到巴黎“过过渡”,常驻办公室只能设在华盛顿,办公地点白宫、五角大楼随便挑。

利比亚面临的是百废待兴,“全国过渡委员会”白手起家,办公室连买瓶墨水的多余钱都没有,工作人员想吃个比萨饼都舍不得买,一切用度全靠美国支持,一掏就是几千万,法国想掏钱都递不上。“全国过渡委员会”就是在美国的“爱护”下、“保护”下、“包办”下,手把手地教导着开始工作了。

美英法等利用联合国设立禁飞区决议、打着“制止人道灾难”的幌子,不惜制造更大的人道灾难、对利比亚领土狂轰滥炸,其实,主要就是美国与法国的一场在北非战略布局的博奕。

法国的石油来源,抑或大部分传统利益自古来自非洲、少量中东。法国做梦都想建立环地中海势力范围,掌握了的黎波里就等于部分或大部分掌握了北非和非洲事务,利比亚现政权是个难迈的山头、卡扎菲是个难越的沟壑,卡扎菲不除,法国雄起的大国梦想不能成真。

利比亚现政权虽说主动与美国交好了,美国反恐,卡扎菲一直支持,但美国的意图要囊括整个非洲、并建立非洲司令部,包括的黎波里往地中海辐射,卡扎菲这一关,很难通过。所以,美国早想除掉卡扎菲而后快。表面上,美、法都因不喜欢卡扎菲而战斗在了一起,而实际上,他们各怀心腹事,各打小九九。

一山不容二虎,不管是美洲豹、还是乖乖虎,一旦法国想独吞地中海、或者纵深插足非洲,触及了历来信奉“没有永远的盟友、只有永远的利益”的美国势力范围,即使是盟友,美国也准能翻脸不认人。两虎必有一伤。伤者一方,不言而喻。

如果萨科齐在轰炸利比亚挑头的时间里,没有赚足下届总统竞选的民意基础或民意分数,回头想在卡扎菲后,在北非与美国平分秋色、分割势力范围,可以肯定地说,只能是南柯一梦。
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