Obama Outlines His Campaign Strategy
Barack Obama has just ended a tour in the Midwest which marked the beginning of his re-election campaign, targeting the Republicans and the tea party. For three days, the U.S. president met residents of Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois — three key states in the presidential election he won in 2008 — and laid the foundations of his strategy for 2012.
With a stagnant economy and an approval rating that has fallen to just 39 percent, according to a Gallup poll published Saturday, Aug. 13, Barack Obama knows that he has a big challenge, 15 months ahead of the presidential election. “I'm going to be accountable,” he acknowledged on CNN Tuesday, fearing that voters’ impatience may prevent him from being re-elected. Barack Obama wants to show that he is tackling Americans' problems, and he announced that in September he will propose an action plan to stimulate the U.S. economy and decrease unemployment.
“A president is primarily in campaign against himself,” explains Mark Penn, a leading Democratic strategist contacted by Le Monde.fr. "From now until next year, Obama must show that he is capable of directing Washington and increase his popularity rating to about 50 percent. And above all, he must not forget that the voters want him to act first and foremost as a president and only afterwards as a candidate."
For Mark Penn, who directed Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2008 and worked on Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996, it is indispensable for Barack Obama to succeed in his forthcoming negotiations with Congress, particularly the budget negotiations. “It would be a considerable setback if he were to fail in this matter,” he notes. “He did not succeed in getting what he wanted in July, but there will be a second round of negotiations with the bipartisan commission.”
Taking Advantage of the Tea Party's Intransigence
Barack Obama is well aware that the upcoming negotiations will be decisive and he is challenging the Republicans not to block the discussions by refusing any compromise, particularly on increasing taxes. "We're going to need a partner from Congress, and we're going to need folks to move off some of these rigid positions they have been taking," he warned during his interview on CNN, referring to the congressional representatives who are close to the tea party.
Indeed, Obama intends to take advantage of the intransigence that pushed the United States to the brink of default of payment. "Some folks in Congress […] would rather see their opponents lose than America win," he said Monday to the residents of Cannon Falls, Minnesota. Meanwhile, the whole Democratic machine is attempting to associate the Republican primary candidates with the tea party.
David Axelrod, one of Obama‘s principal strategists, accused the Republican candidates last week on CBS of "pledging allegiance to the tea party," highlighting the fact that they all raised their hand during a televised debate on Aug. 11 to say that they would never accept any increase in taxes. For its part, the Democratic Party posted a video on the Internet describing the Republican Party candidates as extremists who are dangerous to the elderly and the middle classes.
This strategy could well pay off. "The tea party benefits from the passionate support and real fervor of its members, but it does not have broad support among the population at large,"* specifies Allan Lichtman, a political analyst and professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C. Indeed, a recent poll for The New York Times and CBS shows that 40 percent of Americans have a negative opinion of this political movement, a figure that has sharply increased since April 2010 (18 percent at the time).
So it is in Barack Obama’s interests to continue to associate his potential opponents with the tea party, whose ideas are seen as extreme. "The Americans must see him as a president who will protect education and large programs like Medicare and Medicaid. And he must show that the Republicans, on the contrary, do not want to keep these social welfare programs," says Mark Penn. "It’s the strategy that Lyndon Johnson used in 1964, presenting Barry Goldwater not as a conservative, but as a dangerous extremist,"* Allan Lichtman reminds us, specifying that Johnson won by 20 points in the difference.
But before tackling his opponents, Barack Obama must first of all campaign on the results of his current term. "For this, Obama will need to show more leadership, inspire Americans and make them believe that his second term will be a success," says Mark Penn. So the U.S. president’s return after the summer recess will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized, with the announcement of his economic stimulus package and the budget negotiations.
*Translator's Note: Original quotation could not be verified.
With a stagnant economy and an approval rating that has fallen to just 39 percent, according to a Gallup poll published Saturday, Aug. 13, Barack Obama knows that he has a big challenge, 15 months ahead of the presidential election. “I'm going to be accountable,” he acknowledged on CNN Tuesday, fearing that voters’ impatience may prevent him from being re-elected. Barack Obama wants to show that he is tackling Americans' problems, and he announced that in September he will propose an action plan to stimulate the U.S. economy and decrease unemployment.
“A president is primarily in campaign against himself,” explains Mark Penn, a leading Democratic strategist contacted by Le Monde.fr. "From now until next year, Obama must show that he is capable of directing Washington and increase his popularity rating to about 50 percent. And above all, he must not forget that the voters want him to act first and foremost as a president and only afterwards as a candidate."
For Mark Penn, who directed Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2008 and worked on Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996, it is indispensable for Barack Obama to succeed in his forthcoming negotiations with Congress, particularly the budget negotiations. “It would be a considerable setback if he were to fail in this matter,” he notes. “He did not succeed in getting what he wanted in July, but there will be a second round of negotiations with the bipartisan commission.”
Taking Advantage of the Tea Party's Intransigence
Barack Obama is well aware that the upcoming negotiations will be decisive and he is challenging the Republicans not to block the discussions by refusing any compromise, particularly on increasing taxes. "We're going to need a partner from Congress, and we're going to need folks to move off some of these rigid positions they have been taking," he warned during his interview on CNN, referring to the congressional representatives who are close to the tea party.
Indeed, Obama intends to take advantage of the intransigence that pushed the United States to the brink of default of payment. "Some folks in Congress […] would rather see their opponents lose than America win," he said Monday to the residents of Cannon Falls, Minnesota. Meanwhile, the whole Democratic machine is attempting to associate the Republican primary candidates with the tea party.
David Axelrod, one of Obama‘s principal strategists, accused the Republican candidates last week on CBS of "pledging allegiance to the tea party," highlighting the fact that they all raised their hand during a televised debate on Aug. 11 to say that they would never accept any increase in taxes. For its part, the Democratic Party posted a video on the Internet describing the Republican Party candidates as extremists who are dangerous to the elderly and the middle classes.
This strategy could well pay off. "The tea party benefits from the passionate support and real fervor of its members, but it does not have broad support among the population at large,"* specifies Allan Lichtman, a political analyst and professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C. Indeed, a recent poll for The New York Times and CBS shows that 40 percent of Americans have a negative opinion of this political movement, a figure that has sharply increased since April 2010 (18 percent at the time).
So it is in Barack Obama’s interests to continue to associate his potential opponents with the tea party, whose ideas are seen as extreme. "The Americans must see him as a president who will protect education and large programs like Medicare and Medicaid. And he must show that the Republicans, on the contrary, do not want to keep these social welfare programs," says Mark Penn. "It’s the strategy that Lyndon Johnson used in 1964, presenting Barry Goldwater not as a conservative, but as a dangerous extremist,"* Allan Lichtman reminds us, specifying that Johnson won by 20 points in the difference.
But before tackling his opponents, Barack Obama must first of all campaign on the results of his current term. "For this, Obama will need to show more leadership, inspire Americans and make them believe that his second term will be a success," says Mark Penn. So the U.S. president’s return after the summer recess will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized, with the announcement of his economic stimulus package and the budget negotiations.
*Translator's Note: Original quotation could not be verified.