When America’s Strength Goes Down, Israel Messes Up

One of the direct consequences of the American superpower’s loss of strength is the deterioration of relations between its closest ally, Israel, and the moderate Muslim powers — Turkey and Egypt.

The United States under President Barack Obama continues to lose its credibility and its weight in the Middle East. The degradation in Israel’s relations with the two moderate regional powers, Turkey and Egypt, is directly linked to the United States’ growing weaker as a superpower and a depletion of its influence in the region.

The conduct of the United States in our neighborhood over the past half year is characterized by hesitancy, confusion and an inability to call the shots or strike a balance between its interests and values Obama is aiming to or preaching.

The whole thing originates from the fact that the United States proceeds in the Middle East with its hands tied, that is, it cannot make a use of the main resource at a superpower’s disposal: the threat of employing military power. This means is virtually nonexistent for the United States. In the Libyan frame of reference, we see it in a minimal dosage. In Libya, American intervention is very low profile and under European command.

In the Egyptian revolution, we encountered the American policy of zigzag and its lack of ability to transmit a clear line and position. The United States played a double game with respect to Mubarak: at first, it claimed him to be a strategic asset, but later supported the course leading to his expulsion. This is even more evident in the Syrian context, where the United States, in practice, is reconciled to the massacre Assad has unleashed on his countrymen.

Washington Has Lost Its Ability to Deter Ankara

With regard to Turkey, the weakness of the Obama administration is reflected in its complete inability to exert influence on Erdogan; while in normal times, the administration managed to easily turn the hand of the Turkish regime around. A country like Turkey doesn’t have today the awe it used to have in the past for the United States. In the eyes of the Turks, Washington has practically lost the capacity to deter Ankara.

Today, the sphere of U.S. authority has actually shrunk for geostrategic reasons. The days when the United States protected Turkey from the Soviet Union have vanished. The formula of dependence between the two countries has changed completely.

Relations between Turkey and the United States have been infiltrated by the sediments of Turkish bitterness and anger toward the West, mostly due to Turkey’s non-admittance to the European Union. To a large extent, the United States is paying the price of the collective guilt of the entire West toward Turkey.

What’s common to America’s standing in Turkey, Syria, Libya and Egypt, is that the way the United States is behaving in the Muslim Middle East is like a poor person begging at the door. It’s absolutely obvious that this is an implication of the American entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States has exhausted its military, strategic and economic capability to enter once again into a large-scale army involvement; therefore under Obama, it depends on soft power.

The U.S. Operates in the Middle East as a Superpower under Difficulties

Obama’s philosophy, already from the very beginning of his term, has been to build a moderate Sunni coalition against Iran. It’s a diplomatic coalition — not a military one — that would fight the Iranians. The result is that ultimately, the United States does not have a military option in the Middle East region, and in reality, it operates as a neutered [super]power whose room for maneuvering is very limited.

It feels like the United States is acting in the Middle East not out of self-confidence, but rather as a [super]power under huge difficulties. The Middle East reacts to that correspondingly, responding defiantly to the United States.

For Obama’s first speech at the beginning of his term, he chose to give it in Turkey, even before Cairo. He went too far in order to try and isolate extremist Islam. The outcome was the opposite. Obama is perceived as ineffective. Both in Egypt and Turkey, they view the United States as weak. Obama’s United States apologized to Islam for her arrogance in the past, for the haughtiness of the West and for its exploitation. And the moment that you, as the president, launch a series of apologies and reach out to Iran as well, the ramification is that countries in the region look at you dismissively.

The American Policy Is Marked by Inconsistency

President Theodore Roosevelt observed in his time: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” The United States today does not carry one. What’s left is the gentle talk that has become little tougher vis-à-vis Iran, without military power in its pocket.

Overall, we can see that in regions such as the Middle East, functioning in accordance with the norms of belligerence and cool reason, American decline is reflected even more clearly than in other arenas. American policy is marked by the lack of a consistent and systematic approach.

In Egypt, the United States makes zigzags; in Bahrain, it demonstrates indifference; in Syria, it shows infirmity. In such a state of affairs, Turkey is looking for another anchor and axis for itself to hook up to and lean on. As a result of this, we’re witnessing a chain reaction. The United States has a hard time applying its influence in the Muslim Middle East, and Israel, who remains exposed in the turret, is among those who are paying the price.

Even if we end up under the umbrella of American protection in the U.N. in the battle for the recognition of the Palestinian state, the United States will do that reluctantly and perhaps out of no choice. In light of this, a hot winter could be expected in the Middle East, as the United States, sinking deeper and deeper into the upcoming presidential campaign, will find it even harder to activate any leverage on the Muslim space filled with tension and rivalries.

Professor Abraham Ben Zvi is a lecturer in the Department of International Relations at Haifa University, the author of the book “From Truman to Obama: The Rise and Early Decline of American - Israeli Relations.”