The Odds of a Wall Street Elitist Winning the Presidency

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 February 2012
by Zhu Weiyi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Brian Delsandro. Edited by Laurie Henneman.
The Occupy Wall Street mob has long since fled, leaving Wall Street even more united. In the 2012 presidential election, the leader of a private equity fund is personally suiting up for battle. Mitt Romney is ahead of the competition in the Republican Party and endeavors to obtain their nomination. He will meet head-on the self-proclaimed representative of the fundamental interests of the American people, President Obama.

Romney cannot be considered an old friend to the Chinese people, but it can be said that before seeing him, his voice can already be heard. The high-level power struggle at GOME* which caused such an uproar took shape under the shadow of Bain Capital, which Romney founded.

Romney is rich. In January 2012, he published his 2010 tax forms, which revealed his income of $21.7 million for that year. They also showed that he has assets in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, and a large amount of capital that is managed by Goldman Sachs on his behalf. Romney not only has money, but also a tax rate of 13.9 percent, which is equal to that of an American family with an annual household income of $80,000. The tax rate is so low that even Romney himself is a little embarrassed.

There are many children of the rich in America who have come out to run for president, but people who made their fortune themselves and then run for president are few, and almost none have been elected. There is no precedent in America for showing how someone who becomes rich before being president will perform.

Rich politicians are not likely to represent the interests of the poor, but if they are willing to betray their own class to some degree, perhaps they can help relieve some of America's societal conflicts. Polarization threatens social harmony in the United States, and in 2011 an opinion poll showed that support and opposition for the tax increase on the rich were 66 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

Whomever Romney chooses to represent will also depend on his own interests. Romney and Wall Street share a lot of the same interests. The head of Blackstone, Steven Schwarzman, backs him, and the majority of Goldman Sachs employees give Romney their wholehearted support in his run for the presidency. Although Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs are two different companies, they are still intimately friendly forces. Goldman Sachs made major contributions to Bain Capital at the time of their original listing on the stock market, and simultaneously, Bain Capital is a major customer of Goldman Sachs. Also, the Romneys' retirement fund is invested in dozens of Goldman Sachs investment vehicles. With such cooperation, there is no way that Romney doesn't have a personal attachment toward Goldman Sachs.

Romney is not only a successful businessman, but also a businessman with a background in legal studies. Capital markets have a lot of beach-goers with legal backgrounds who walk along the water without getting their shoes wet. People who study the law are not necessarily law-abiding. On the contrary, because they know and understand the law and its boundaries, they know how to violate it and receive little or no punishment, so brokers with a background in law are even bolder. Over the past decade, three of the top CEOs of Goldman Sachs have been law-school graduates, and the former CEO of Citigroup, Charles O. Prince III, also has a law background. Businessmen in politics are a new characteristic of American politics; Harvard Business School graduate George W. Bush entering the White House is one handy example. A lot of American presidents have a background in law, but there has never been a president who is both a businessman and a lawyer in American history.

In fact, Obama has made a lot of thunder and little rain towards Wall Street, but he doesn't have the heroic spirit necessary to fight Wall Street to the end. Obama is an agent of the rich, or has at least capitulated to them, and Romney is one of the rich himself. After the financial crisis, Wall Street is more powerful. Shaking a mountain would be easy, compared to shaking Wall Street.

The writer is a professor at China University of Political Science and Law

*Editor's note: GOME Electrical Appliances is a Chinese company.


占领华尔街的乌合之众早已作鸟兽散,而华尔街则更加众志成城。2012年总统大选,私募股权基金的一位领军人物亲自披挂上阵。罗姆尼正在共和党内力战群雄,努力争取获得共和党提名,迎战自封为代表广大美国人民根本利益的奥巴马总统。


  罗姆尼算不上是中国人民的老朋友,但可以说是未见其人,先闻其声。国美电器高层权力斗争曾轰动一时,这场斗争有美国贝恩资本的身影,罗姆尼正是贝恩资本的创始人。


  罗姆尼有钱。2012年1月,他公布的2010年纳税表显示,他那一年的收入2170万美元,而且在瑞士和开曼群岛都有财产,他的很多资产由高盛代为管理。罗姆尼不仅有钱,而且纳税的税率仅为13.9%,相当于年收入8万美元的美国家庭的税率。税率如此之低,罗姆尼自己也有点不好意思。


  美国富家子弟出来竞选总统的不少,但自己发了大财后再出来竞选总统的人很少;有过,但当选的几乎没有。先致富再当总统的人表现如何,美国尚无先例可循。


  富人从政不太可能代理穷人的利益,但如果富人政治家能够在某种程度上背叛自己的阶级,或许能够有助于缓解美国的社会矛盾。美国两极分化已经危及社会和谐,2011年一项民意调查表明,支持和反对向富人加税的美国人分别是66%和32%。


  罗姆尼代表谁的利益,也取决于他本人的利益。罗姆尼与华尔街是一个利益共同体。他背后有黑石基金大老板斯蒂芬•施瓦茨曼撑腰。对于罗姆尼竞选总统,高盛的广大员工是衷心拥护的。贝恩资本与高盛虽是两支队伍,却是亲密的友军。当初贝恩资本上市时,高盛立下汗马功劳。同时,贝恩资本是高盛的重要客户。罗姆尼夫妇的退休基金投了高盛的几十个投资工具。有这样的合作,罗姆尼与高盛不可能没有感情。


  罗姆尼不仅是一位成功的商人,而且是学法律出身的商人。资本市场有许多学法律出身的弄潮儿,常在河边走,就是不湿鞋。学法律的人不一定就遵纪守法。恰恰相反,因为知法、懂法,知道法律边线,学法律的人知道如何违反法律可以不受或少受惩罚,所以学法律出身的券商更加生猛。近十年来,高盛的一把手中有3人是法学院毕业的,花旗集团的前首席执行官普林斯也是学法律的。商人问政是美国政治的新气象,哈佛商学院的布什入主白宫便是一例,学法律出身的美国总统大有人在,但集商人、律师于一身的总统,在美国历史上还没有。


  其实,对华尔街,奥巴马是雷声大雨点小,并没有与华尔街血战到底的英雄气概。奥巴马是富人的代理人,至少是一个投降派。而罗姆尼自己就是富人。金融危机之后,华尔街更加强大,撼山易,撼华尔街难。▲(作者是中国政法大学教授)
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