The Republican Dispute in the US

Published in La Tercera
(Chile) on 8 March 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Marie Winnick. Edited by Laurie Henneman.
After “Super Tuesday,” in which Republican primaries were held in 10 states, the outlook remains uncertain as to who will run against Barack Obama. Even though Mitt Romney was victorious in six states, the ex-governor of Massachusetts is still far from securing the 1,144 delegates needed to be nominated at the Republican National Convention.

The increasing numbers in economic growth and job creation seen by the United States in the last few months have strengthened Obama’s position. The likelihood of a president in office being defeated during an economic recovery is low. Without having to dole out resources or suffer attrition as have the Republican candidates, who are in the thick of their party’s most bitter primaries since 1976, it also counts in his favor to be the guaranteed Democratic nominee.

Though Obama is gaining momentum, the Republicans need to address some key issues before facing him in November. What seems to be at stake is not just the candidate, but also the balance of power within a group in which numerous interests coexist in an inharmonious way. In the last few years, after the disastrous end of George W. Bush’s term, traditional sectors have dominated the party. However, the Republican rebirth that swept the congressional elections of 2010 came at the hands of the tea party. With its mix of conservative values and fierce defense of the free market, it has a proven ability to organize its supporters. This dispute could end up being even more critical for North America’s political future than could the verdict on Obama’s opponent.


TRAS LA CELEBRACION de las primarias republicanas en 10 estados en el tradicional "Súper Martes", el panorama continúa siendo incierto para determinar quién enfrentará al Presidente Barack Obama. Si bien Mitt Romney, el ex gobernador de Massachusetts, consiguió el triunfo en seis estados, todavía se encuentra lejos de asegurar los 1.144 delegados que necesita para ser nominado en la convención republicana.

La mejoría en las cifras de crecimiento económico y de generación de empleos que ha venido experimentando Estados Unidos en los últimos meses ha robustecido la posición de Obama. Este también cuenta a su favor tener garantizada la nominación del Partido Demócrata, sin necesidad de desembolsar recursos ni de sufrir el desgaste que están experimentando los precandidatos republicanos, quienes se encuentran enfrascados en las primarias más reñidas desde 1976 en su partido. Las posibilidades de que un Mandatario en ejercicio sea derrotado cuando la economía se encuentra en recuperación son bajas.

Sin embargo, antes de enfrentarse en noviembre a un Obama que cobra ímpetu, los republicanos deben definir cuestiones cruciales. Lo que parece estar en juego no es sólo quién será el candidato, sino asimismo la correlación de fuerzas de una colectividad en la cual conviven numerosas corrientes de manera no siempre armónica. En los últimos años, luego del descalabro en que terminó el gobierno de George W. Bush, los sectores tradicionales han dominado al partido; sin embargo, el renacimiento republicano que llevó al triunfo en las elecciones parlamentarias de 2010 vino de la mano del Tea Party, que mezcla valores conservadores con una férrea defensa del libre mercado y una gran capacidad de movilización. Esta disputa puede resultar incluso más determinante para el futuro político norteamericano que la definición puntual del candidato que compita con Obama.
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