After two important victories in Alabama and Mississippi, the rhetoric of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has changed in two important ways (apart from the habitual bevy of arguments against Barack Obama). One has to do with the inevitability of the nomination of Mitt Romney, and the other is about money, and Santorum links the two topics in the same sentence: "Well, for someone who thinks this race is inevitable, (Romney) has spent a whole lot of money against me for being inevitable." And even so, he ended up getting beaten.
Santorum was smart about how he approached this delicate question. The candidate noted that he had been able to win the two primaries despite the enormous disparity in their campaign backing and the fact that his rival Mitt Romney, either through his own means or through the Super-PAC which supports his candidacy, has spent five times more money in negative ads against the Santorum campaign.
Apart from it being mathematically impossible to win the 1,144 delegates needed to seal the nomination, with yesterday's result Santorum proved that his candidacy could still be competitive. His strategy is to continue to battle for delegates, so that no candidate arrives at the National Convention in Tampa with the nomination sealed. It will then truly be a fight between the heart and the mind of the Republican Party. The ultra-conservative is betting that, if he hangs in the fight until the end, he will be able to prevail.
Last night was terrible for Romney, who did not bother to make a statement after the announcement of the results. In the aftermath the next day, however, one had to say that, despite everything, the dynamic of the race had not changed. The defeat of Romney in the South was more than was expected, his difficulty in convincing the evangelical bloc recognized. Yet the ex-governor of Massachusetts is still the one in the running with the most delegates and he has not stopped being the favorite, but the possibility that everything will be decided at the Convention increased slightly.
To prolong his campaign, Santorum needs money, and the bad news for him is the stubbornness of Newt Gingrich, who refuses to leave the way open for the conservative factions — electors and financiers — to rally around Santorum’s candidacy. Sheldon Adelson, the millionaire who bankrolls Gingrich's campaign, still has not turned off the tap, but the pressure on the former speaker of the house to finally stop is only going to intensify in the coming days. Even the establishment on Romney's side concedes that at the polls Santorum won the right to fight for the nomination in a duel with Romney.
Depois das duas importantes vitórias no Alabama e Mississippi, o discurso do antigo senador da Pensilvânia Rick Santorum teve duas novidades importantes (além da habitual colecção de argumentos contra Barack Obama). Uma tem a ver com a inevitabilidade da nomeação de Mitt Romney, a outra tem a ver com dinheiro — e Santorum juntou as duas referências na mesma frase. “Para quem era inevitável, Romney precisou de gastar muito dinheiro”. E mesmo assim acabou derrotado.
Santorum foi inteligente na forma como abordou essa questão delicada. O candidato notou que tinha conseguido vencer as duas primárias apesar da enorme desproporção da sua campanha em termos financeiros e do facto do seu rival Mitt Romney, por intermédio próprio ou do Super PAC que apoia a sua candidatura, ter gasto cinco vezes mais dinheiro em anúncios negativos contra si.
Apesar de não ter matematicamente nenhuma hipótese de conquistar os 1144 delegados indispensáveis para selar a nomeação, com o resultado de ontem Santorum provou que a sua candidatura ainda pode ser competitiva: a sua estratégia é continuar a batalha pelos delegados, de forma a que nenhum dos candidatos chegue à Convenção Nacional de Tampa com a nomeação fechada — será então verdadeiramente uma luta entre a razão e o coração do Partido Republicano. O ultra-conservador aposta que, se arrastar o duelo até ao final, poderá prevalecer.
A noite de ontem foi péssima para Romney (que nem se deu ao trabalho de fazer uma declaração após o anúncio dos resultados), mas em jeito de rescaldo do dia seguinte é preciso dizer que, apesar de tudo, a dinâmica da corrida não se alterou: a derrota de Romney no Sul era mais do que esperada, a sua dificuldade em convencer o bloco evangélico mais do que conhecida. O ex-governador do Massachusetts ainda é o concorrente com mais delegados e não deixou de ser o favorito — mas a possibilidade de que tudo venha a ser decidido na Convenção aumentou ligeiramente.
Para prolongar a campanha Santorum precisa de dinheiro, e uma das más notícias (para ele) é a teimosia de Newt Gingrich, que recusa deixar o caminho livre para que as facções conservadoras — os eleitores e os financiadores — venham congregar-se na sua candidatura. Sheldon Adelson, o milionário que banca a campanha de Gingrich, ainda não fechou a torneira, mas a pressão para que o ex-Speaker do Congresso desista finalmente só vai intensificar-se nos próximos dias: mesmo o establishment que está ao lado de Romney concede que Santorum conquistou nas urnas o direito a disputar a nomeação num duelo contra Romney.
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