The US Twilight?… and Colorful Questions

The U.S. uproar at Russia’s position and the misleading leaks raise big questions about the U.S. administration's activity beyond the calculations of the recently-formed equation. In the meantime, the other — opposite — side is being saturated with political entitlements that the U.S. administration’s diplomatic capability cannot quite manage to keep under control.

And as the balance wobbles in a direction that is making President Obama's administration anxious, any U.S. approach seems risky — especially after the administration was forced to taste the bitterness of doubt and after signs of failure and faltering became apparent in both its information and the very course of its program. The U.S.’ diplomatic program has taken a shocking turn in the view of most American analysts and strategists now that the Syrian factor is coming into play. Indeed, all that has been produced by American diplomatic efforts and everything that has been sacrificed in the way of the traditional players have done nothing to prolong the American era.

At this crossroads, the U.S. is clearly experiencing a fading, although the U.S. has postponed any acknowledgement, due to the inherent difficulty of such a move. The American twilight dictates the terms of their policy. The fundamental conclusions have become apparent and are closely related to this trend, even though they have not yet been announced.

And despite the fact that the U.S. mainly fears that the knot that holds its fibers together might come undone and that it has been put in the position of trying to hold onto a live coal, America is not hiding its anxiety about the jarring consequences that will take shape in either case. The U.S. has already realized that these consequences cannot be satisfied simply by giving up all that it has accomplished up to now — nor will they be satisfied with the recent setbacks that have the potential to reshape the regional equation in a completely contrary fashion.

And if the United States has conceded that it is witnessing the initial waning of the era of its absolute influence, replacing that equation shall, indeed, herald the coming of another era — an era that will not be content to draw lots with the Americans in order to split up revenues. In fact, the new era will be one of conflicts beyond those regions that comprise the United States’ traditional spheres of influence.

This is, at least, what can be initially concluded for the recent U.S. judicial proceeding that intend to push international initiatives out of their context while, at the same time, the U.S. has seemed to be in such a rush to end Kofi Annan’s mission, giving early warning that it would not carry on with the observers’ work!

But the most dangerous aspect of this situation is that the U.S. has not dissociated itself from the active arming of the opposition and — up to now — it has not issued orders to prevent its agents from further involvement. This is because the Americans have realized that the opportunity to continue fanning the flames of the crisis just might be the only umbrella under which they can seek refuge in hopes of postponing the announcement of their country’s bankruptcy… despite the fact that wagering on this combustible situation has become more dangerous than bankruptcy itself.

Therefore, American complaints about diplomatic initiatives are no longer merely a means to continue supporting militant organization and to prolong the crisis but, rather, a shift to a new policy that will rely on evading any political entitlements that may be imposed by the ongoing developments of the situation. Indeed, all the political solutions that are on the table would, ultimately, constitute a regression for the U.S. project as a whole.

This inevitable regression is compounded by the opposing scene in which Russian diplomatic attacks continue without cease. Russia has rallied forces and parties that were — until recently — in the gray zone. At least some of these groups were on the U.S. payroll before joining Russia’s side. This development has been an indicator for the Obama administration of a coming political confrontation that is much larger than it had been expecting.

It is clear that Russia is no longer concerned with U.S. calculations and time frames. Russia has no intention of scheduling its action in accordance with the calendar of U.S. elections, even as Russia has many political entitlements to achieve before it can fully devote itself to re-ordering the scene of the coming conflict. Although Russia has deferred such issues for years, putting an end to the Syrian crisis will greatly strengthen Russia’s position and allow its stature to grow in the international arena.

Between U.S. evasion and Russian hastiness, new equations are taking shape and are being drawn on the ground by the objective Syrian element. In the end, it is this Syrian element that will be the point on which the direction of the new equation hinges. The Syrian element will also be the reference for drawing a deferred scene and closing off the discrepancies that have overcome and oppressed that scene in past months. These discrepancies include the obtrusive examination of many of the region’s developments, as well as the accumulation of political debts in more than one spot. The barrel has overflowed with these debts, its bottom has filled up with their impudence, and they have been vilified by the colorful tongues of the Gulf and some of the regional and European capitals!