“Asia’s Little NATO” Threat to Peace in Northeast Asia

According to official statements made by the Japanese navy, starting on the 21st, the United States and South Korean naval forces plan to have two days of joint training exercises in the waters south of the Korean peninsula. The U.S., Japan and South Korea's joint military activities have reportedly been held each year beginning in 2008. In March of 2010, after the "Cheonan" incident, the location for military maneuvers was relocated to Cheju's southern waters. For these joint maneuvers, Japanese Aegis destroyer Kirishima and large-scale warship Kurama grade three naval vessels will be sent to participate. The U.S. will send the USS George Washington and nuclear powered submarines, while South Korea will send destroyers, submarines, patrol ships, etc. Allegedly, the United States, Japan and South Korea's trilateral military cooperation points to a strengthening in the three nations’ ability to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction to ensure maritime safety and increase disaster relief cooperation. This type of training reflects an increased combat capability as well as strengthened relations among the three countries; however, the U.S.-South Korean annual naval exercises are mainly for anti-submarine warfare, launching warships that are free to attack and defend, and submarine detection.

Although the aforementioned U.S.-Japanese-South Korean joint military training already began four years ago, this statement is a bit one-sided. It wasn't that the U.S., Japan and South Korea held joint military maneuvers, but rather that Korean officers were invited to watch U.S. and Japanese military exercises; or, that Japanese military officers were invited to watch and learn from U.S.-Korean military exercises. Therefore, strictly speaking, Japan and South Korea splitting their military involvement with America is very common, while each of the three countries providing warships to conduct joint military exercises has never occurred before. This is the first time.

In the past, U.S.-Japanese military exercises and U.S.-Korean exercises were clearly divided; U.S.-Japanese-South Korean military relations have been compared to an obtuse triangle. U.S.-Japanese relations and U.S.-Korean relations are divided by a "waist" and this "waist" is not very long but seems equal, but the most critical is Japanese-South Korean relations. This "side" of the triangle is very long, and also very difficult to shorten.

However, the "Cheonan" and "Yin Ping Island" incidents caused some changes. These two occurrences reveal North Korea's unpredictability, and led the U.S., Japan and South Korea to believe that North Korea's critical "ally" China is not critical of North Korea. Therefore, South Korea felt extremely threatened. At the same time, the accelerated pace of China's peaceful rise and the Chinese navy quickly taking to the sea has influenced Northeast Asia's regional relations. At this moment, also coinciding with America's strategic decision to return to the Asia Pacific, the previously weakening relations between the U.S. and South Korea have become stronger. Originally seen as the main axis of Northeast Asian security, U.S.-Japanese relations have therefore become America's goal for re-focusing their organizational strategy.

By some indications, America's key Asian military centers in Japan and South Korea are currently being adjusted to the second and third island chains, to escape a Chinese missile strike. After reduction and redeployment of American and Japanese forces, a portion of these soldiers will be mobilized to Australia and Guam. One exception, however, is the position of and increasing role played by American troops stationed in South Korea. Currently being promoted, the right to hand over wartime combat command (in short, the right to fight), would continue to preserve the U.S.-South Korean joint command center. The originally withdrawn "Apache" attack helicopter troop returned to their station in South Korea; U.S. aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines have more opportunity to stop at Korean ports, and there is the additional deployment of the "patriot" anti-missile system, etc. Clearly, the withdrawal of American troops is at the same time being accompanied by the strengthening of forces stationed in South Korea, which is seen as a response to crisis situations on the Korean peninsula. The South Korean government made a statement regarding the people: "The United States government believes that after the sudden death of Kim Jong Il, North Korea is in an unstable condition. If there is another occurrence like the ‘Cheonan’ and ‘Yin Ping Island’ incidents, the situation on the Korean peninsula will become unmanageable."

At the same time, America's strategy also saw some changes. From the original strategic retreat in response to China and dividing cooperation with Japan or South Korea, they are now working to create military cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and are actively creating what is commonly called "Asia's little NATO." In the current stage, most important is forming the four countries (the U.S., Japan, Australia and South Korea) into the core of a quasi-military alliance. However, so far "Asia's little NATO" is still in a hazy state of affairs, and is still in the testing and integrating stage. Even though they all have, for the most part, mutual intentions, perhaps their actualization is still some time away.

However, America wants to create and is also meant to lead "Asia's little NATO." From 2010 until now, the three countries have held various military exercises almost every month in the Asia-Pacific region. Each military maneuver agenda is full until the year’s end. These military exercises have two characteristics: the first, a strong purpose, not only in concealing counterterrorism, but also in search and rescue and other subjects, especially anti-submarine and island combat, which are the main focus of the exercises. The second characteristic is a continually expanding scale. For example, even though routine exercises are held in the Pacific Rim only once every two years, this year's exercises were extended by one month and the number of participating countries reached 22, even including former targets — Russia was also invited to participate!

At the same time, America is actively developing their military arrangements in the Asia Pacific region by more quickly optimizing their Asia Pacific military bases, strengthening the base in Guam's core role, stationing soldiers in Australia and Singapore and pushing for cooperation with Philippine soldiers to find new opportunities to station troops there. Military cooperation among the United States, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia and many other Southeast Asian countries has evolved into a long-term, institutionalized state, in many cases including an unprecedented amount of joint military exercises.

But the most important aspect China needs to keep in mind is that this time there is unprecedented military cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea. The joint military exercises demonstrate America's mediation; Japan and South Korea have moved beyond past grievances (Japan's colonization of South Korea created distrust of Japan as well as strong resentment towards the Japanese), are shaking hands and are moving towards military cooperation. U.S. forces stationed in Northeast Asia weren't very strong before, and although U.S.-Japanese and U.S.-South Korean relations have respectively developed, there is no combat cooperation between them. Some cooperation is merely Japan functioning as logistical support between America and South Korea, and is mainly for assisting U.S. troops. One month ago, in coordinating U.S. forces, Japan and South Korea mutually came to the "Korean and Japanese General Security of Military Information Agreement” (GSOMIA) and the "Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement” (ACSA), but South Korea afterwards delayed signing the agreements, having misgivings about China. Now, development of U.S.-Japanese-South Korean military exercises has actually paved the way for South Korea's ultimately signing the agreements; the remaining issue was only a question of time. This also signifies that South Korea officially joined the American-led Northeast Asia safety network for the sake of their own safety, or to clear away an obstacle to the ultimate creation of "Asia's little NATO."

U.S., Japanese and South Korean joint military exercises display the three nations’ solidarity to "contain North Korea and China.” Japan Economic News comments that U.S.-Japanese-South Korean joint military exercises are taking into account North Korea's satellite launch in April as well as China's ensuring maritime rights and actions. The three countries believe there is a need to strengthen cooperation among their countries and increase their collective deterrent abilities. If the U.S., Japan and South Korea are honestly coming together through these military exercises, it may be the beginning of a new Cold War in Northeast Asia!