Facing China, What Does America Worry About?

Published in Zaobao
(China) on 29 August 2012
by 伟达 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Christine.Xiao. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
In recent times, as America’s "returning to the Asia-Pacific region” strategy is being further implemented, the "military dialogue" between China and the U.S. has been greatly enhanced, including both “hard power” and “soft power.”

By "hard power," we mean that the U.S. took Japan to its side and frequently dispatched military force in the Asia Pacific Ocean with the excuse of the Diaoyu Islands. They deployed new-style weapons, staged U.S.-Japan joint military exercises “capturing islands,” planned to set up an anti-missile and remote radar detection system, and so on. While China responded with a series of military exercises, it also fired the new-style long range multiple nuclear-warhead intercontinental missiles from land and sea in a high-profile launch.

“Soft power” included the Chinese senior military delegation visiting the U.S. Both sides strengthened strategic dialogue; the U.S expressed that they would not try to contain China. Meanwhile, the U.S. secretary of defense will visit China in September.

It seems that the Sino-U.S. "neither enemy nor friend" situation will continue. It is much like the relationships of opponents in sports championships. One party will not allow his opponent to smoothly attack and score; they will try all means to create certain barriers, organize effective defense and seize the opportunity to counterattack.

America's ultimate goal might not be to contain China, but to return to the Asia-Pacific religion from its military deployment to have the strategic initiative and resume its hegemony in this key region. Containing China is, perhaps, a small piece of its overall strategy. Other objectives that America needs to accomplish will include Russia, North Korea, Vietnam and even India.

In any case, America is still quite upset about China’s development. If we compare factual parameters, the overall advantage of America over China is still obvious in fields like politics, society, economy, military, culture, education and technology, to name just a few. Then what does upset America? I think America’s main concern is the momentum of China’s development, which makes America feel its leading position is threatened.

Judging from the rule of cultural development, if a culture is in a rising or rejuvenating stage, then it has great potential, determination and will to overcome all kinds of difficulties and challenges, and will try any means to push forward its development. In the past 150 years, China experienced huge struggles and failures; now it is starting on an uphill road.

Looking back at America, we shall not say that its culture has already entered into recession, but it is slowing substantially. The weakening outlook is really a hidden problem. A new generation of politicians, represented by President Obama, shows insufficient preparation when faced with a turning point in cultural development. Like opportunists, they try to resume and sustain the status quo, busy with mending or looking backward. It is difficult for them to make a wise and reasonable choice for America’s future in the face of the historical trend.

If Americans can follow the trend, a pattern where China and the U.S. join together to manage the Asia-Pacific area might appear. But many Americans are not content with that. They believe China is not qualified to do that and America is not yet in a position to make a concession.

It might take some time for China to be fully qualified. Many Chinese people understand that there are many internal problems waiting to be addressed. Although China has already transferred from the strategy of “managing the country by organizing movements or battles” to a strategy of “managing the country harmoniously by caring the livelihood of the people,” the specific measures that support the new management concepts are still backward and clumsy. Some pessimists even think there is no way out. But most Chinese are still optimistic and hopeful. Because objectives and the future are still clear and rosy, the key is to look for, explore and optimize the route to success.

Where there is a will, there is a way. That is the general disposition of cultural revival. Mr. Deng Xiaoping himself is an optimist. For example, in the dispute over Diaoyu Islands between Japan and China, he believed in the future there would emerge a more wise and peaceful solution.

In the critical moment of historic revolution, the concerned parties not only need to strengthen their competitiveness, but also need to pursue wisdom, so as to lead the forefront of the times.


伟达:面对中国,美国担忧什么?

(2012-08-29)

早报导读
[主编观察] 移民问题讨论下的另一个现实
[财经人物] 飞机狂人:毛一青
[美国总统大选] 三年卧薪尝胆 罗姆尼东山再起
[中国早点] 台湾“香港化”?



● 伟达
审时度势

  最近一个时期,随着美国“重返亚洲”战略的进一步实施,中美两国的“军事对话”强度大增,这其中包括了“硬对话”和“软对话”。

  “硬对话”是美国拉着日本,借钓鱼岛问题向西太平洋频繁调兵遣将,部署新式武器,举行美日联合“夺岛”军事演习,并准备布置反导弹与远程雷达侦测系统等等;中国方面在以一系列军事演习回应的同时,还高调从陆基和海基,试射了新款远程多核弹头洲际导弹。

  “软对话”则包括中国高级军事代表团刚刚访问美国,双方加强了战略对话,美国也表示不以遏制中国发展为目标,同时美国国防部长在9月份即将访华。

  看来中美两军“非敌非友”的情况还会持续下去。这很有些像体育锦标赛上的对手关系,不能让对方顺利进攻得分,总得制造些障碍,组织起有效的防守,并伺机反攻。

  美国的大目标,也许不是专门遏制中国,而是在军事布局上重返亚洲,以掌握在这一关键地区的战略主导和主动权。遏制中国可能只是这个大战略下的一个分目标,其它需要美国应对的目标,还会包括俄罗斯、朝鲜、越南,甚至印度。

  无论如何,美国还是对中国的发展忧心忡忡。如果从现实参数比较来看,美国对中国的全方位整体优势依旧明显,无论从政治、社会、经济、军事、文化、教育、科技等领域都是如此。那么美国还有什么放心不下的呢?笔者以为,主要是中国发展的势头,令美国感到世界老大的地位受到威胁。

  从文明盛衰之曲线消长的规律来看,如果一个文明处于上升或者复兴阶段,这个文明就具备充分的潜力、决心和信念去克服各种困难挑战,把发展大业想方设法地推向前进。在过去150多年里饱经衰败挣扎的中华民族,目前正处在奋发昂扬,整体向前看的上升曲线上。

  反观美国,虽然不敢说文明已经进入衰败,但发展放缓,后劲不足确实是巨大隐患。以奥巴马为代表的美国新生代政治家,在面对文明发展的拐点时,明显表现出准备不足,而更多地试图机会主义般的挽回与维持,忙于缝缝补补或向后看,难以在顺应历史大势的前提下,为美国未来发展作出更明智及合理的选择。

如果美国人能够顺应趋势,一种可能就是亚太格局出现所谓中美共管的态势。但美国还有许多人对此不心甘情愿,认为中国还不够资格,美国也还没有到如此迫不得已的地步。
  中国的资格可能是且待到位。许多中国人自己都明白,还有很多内部问题需要解决。尽管中国国内在指导思想上,已战略性地从原来的“运动治国”,“斗争治国”,转向了“和谐治国”,“民生治国”,但不少支撑实施新的治国理念的系列具体手段与方式,仍凸显滞后笨拙,也有悲观者甚至觉得无解。但大多数中国人似乎依然是乐观和怀有希望的,因为目标与前景清晰美好,关键在于寻找、探索和优化有效的抵达路径。

  有志者事竟成,这便是文明复兴和崛起时的宏观气质。邓小平本人就是个乐观主义者。譬如关于中日钓鱼岛争端,他认为未来会出现更聪明的和平解决办法。

  在历史变革的关键时刻,有关各方不但要有实力较量,更应追求智慧升华,才能真正走在时代发展的前沿。

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