Two Obamas

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 28 October 2013
by Wu Zurong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Renee Loeffler. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Since January 2009 when Obama entered his second term, the U.S. military has pulled out of Iraq, ending the Iraq War; according to U.S. plans, the current war in Afghanistan is also coming to an end. The U.N. Security Council voted on Sept. 27 with regard to the use of chemical weapons in Syria, passing Resolution 2118. Since the sudden start of the conflict in Syria in March 2011, this resolution also recalls three past resolutions concerning Syria. This means that in spite of the U.S. already having stationed military in the area, it has temporarily cast aside notions of using military force on its own, agreeing to use foreign relations in the U.N. and work with the international community to resolve the problem in Syria. In the five years overall of Obama being in office, it's obvious he avoids using large-scale military force to invade other countries when attacking, getting help from allies to display superiority in military preparation and technological advancement, this being a convenient strategy to use against enemies. A case in point is when the U.S. assaulted Libya, it used military drones to invade and attack. Obama is altering military strategy to gain control in war; this has profound implications both internationally and domestically.

First of all, this era of peace and development is a crucial factor restricting the U.S. from using all-out military attacks. After World War II, U.S.-Soviet mutual hostility from the Cold War has been apparent from time to time, but a large-scale war between the two has not occurred. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. is the main Western power promoting new methods of attack, continuing to lead regional wars, no matter if it is the Iraq War, war in Afghanistan or attacks against Libya. Not only does the U.S. pay a price by receiving heavy losses, but ultimately fails in conquering other countries and does not bring peace and stability to the world or the region in question. Sudden interest by the U.S. in Syria as a threat is due to the use of chemical weapons in Damascus on Aug. 21. Russia and the U.S. have both gathered military force in the area and waters around Syria, creating the possibility of escalating into an even larger-scale regional war at any moment. However, the international community continuously tries to use peace efforts to control the U.S. and other Western countries from using military force against Syria. The U.S., United Kingdom and other countries' citizens are not in favor of using strong military force that may escalate into war. Although the U.S. will not abandon using the threat of war and the option of war with new methods of attack, in a world where international finance has recovered after the economic crisis, its strong hope is to advance economic growth and improve life for all the world’s people. Meddling in other countries' politics and causing wars is not looked on favorably, nor is trying to use military force to change other countries' governments. This all will meet with strong opposition from citizens.

Secondly, the U.N. does not just sit by and do nothing. In fact, it has great hope for the future, promoting cooperation to protect peace and development with the use of civilized foreign relations. In order to make an excuse for developing new methods of attack to trigger warfare as the main Western power, in addition to exaggerating conflicts and demonizing other countries, the U.S. manufactures an image of a U.N. that “doesn't take action.” With U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118 having been passed, its implementation is a show of progress which has already incurred a general feeling of satisfaction. The U.N. faces investigations for chemical weapon attacks in Syria, along with the weapons’ disposal being a serious challenge; the U.N. is the most qualified international organization to take on these challenges, with great possibilities for action. Although faced with a situation of war, there are many serious difficulties, including funding and time urgency. It just needs the members of the Security Council, especially the “Big Five,” to make efforts to cooperate, to continue to agree to disagree in order to find a common solution. Through the U.N., it can be possible to complete this goal by the middle of next year, creating progress. U.N. action can be a huge driving force to prevent U.S. military action against other countries.

Thirdly, the U.N. Security Council “Big Five” continually strategize for their own interests, their response to regional conflicts hindering progress, which expands the gap between them and the rest of the world in cooperation for world peace. In the more than two years of conflict in Syria, when responding to various questions that have arisen, it seems the U.S. and Russia are always at odds and not giving any leeway for compromise. This [division] has developed to the point that when U.S. warships moved to waters close to Syria in preparation for attack, it prompted Russia to also send “routine” military to the same area. Actually, it is apparent to both the U.S. and Russia that if the U.S. takes military action against Syria, conflict in the Middle East would increase. It would bring with it not only disaster for the people of the Middle East, but would also do serious damage to both countries' strategic interests, leaving a situation where no one wins. With globalization and information technology, the “Big Five's” regional benefits are in the areas of economics, finance, global security, etc. No matter what the war or military conflict, all other parties involved are affected and harmed to different degrees by the “Big Five's” strategic interests. On the other hand, if the “Big Five” work together to coordinate with other countries to respond to conflicts around the world, the “Big Five” would all also benefit.

Fourth, in the eight years Obama has been in office, the U.S. will have gone through the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as well as suffered international financial crisis; they need time to recover and are hard-pressed for finances to support any large-scale military action. The U.S. federal government’s budget includes military spending, which contributes to the issue of rising debt. Requests for reduction in military spending are growing in the U.S. In discussing and developing the 2014 fiscal year financial plan and the next 10-year spending plan, there are proposed plans where by 2023, the overall value of military spending would gradually decrease from the current 4 percent to 2.4 percent, which would be the lowest average since World War II. Whether this plan will be passed by Congress, get approval from the president and be carried out is still unknown, but an actual reduction in military spending is a real possibility. Besides, next year the spending plan is set to automatically reduce; there has already been a reduction of several hundred million [dollars] in the military budget.

In view of the aforementioned reasons, including the fact that talks have resumed between the U.S. and Iran along with North Korea, the rate of new military conflicts is on the decline. In the eight years he has held office, Obama could become the first president since World War II to not lead an invasion using large-scale military force; on the other hand, he uses global monitoring to control the world with intelligence gathering and developing alternative options for military attacks. He is a president that frequently infringes on other countries' sovereignty.


吴祖荣:两个奥巴马2013-10-28   

奥巴马2009年1月入主白宫以来,美军已从伊拉克全部撤走,伊拉克战争结束;目前阿富汗战争也按美国计划正接近尾声。2013年9月27日联合国安理会经过投票表决,全票通过了关于叙利亚化学武器问题的2118号决议。这是叙利亚2011年3月发生冲突以来安理会在西方国家提出的3项涉叙决议草案流产后通过的第一个涉叙决议,其特别意义在于,美国在已经基本完成在叙利亚周边军事集结的情况下,暂时放弃单方面使用武力,同意在联合国框架内,与国际社会一起努力,通过政治、外交手段解决叙利亚问题。纵观奥巴马执政近5年来用兵经历,避免使用大规模军事力量单方面入侵他国的特点比较明显;借助盟国力量,发挥其军备先进的优势,重灵巧战术打击敌人是其优先考虑方向。利比亚模式和美国无人机入侵他国,打击恐怖分子的行动便是例证。奥巴马调整用兵策略,对发动局部战争加以克制,有其深刻的国际国内原因。

  首先,和平、发展的时代特征是约束美国军事霸权横行的主要原因。二战结束以来,即使在美苏争霸的冷战时期,美苏剑拔弩张的时刻不时出现,但美苏之间、美苏同其他大国之间的大规模战争没有发生。冷战结束以来,以美国为首的西方列强推行新干涉主义路线,导致局部战争连绵不断,无论伊拉克战争、阿富汗战争还是利比亚模式,美国虽然付出了沉重代价,国力受到重创,但终究没有成功征服他国,也没有给世界或地区带来和平与稳定。因大马士革发生8-21致命毒气袭击事件,美国对叙利亚动武威胁骤增。美国和俄罗斯均有向叙利亚周边海域军事集结动作,一场规模更大的新的局部战争大有一触即发之势。然而,国际上不断上升的和平力量制止了美国等西方对叙利亚动武的企图。美国、英国和世界各国人民反对战争的强大力量主导了事态的发展。尽管美国领头的西方新干涉主义者不会放弃战争和战争威胁,但在国际金融危机打击下世界经济复苏乏力的今天,促进经济增长,改善民生是世界各国人民的强力愿望;发动战争去干涉他国内政、用武力改变他国政府的图谋不得人心,遭到各国人民强力反对。

  其次, 联合国不是不作为,而是大有可为,将为维护世界和平,推动共同发展,促进人类文明发挥更大作用。以美国为首的西方新干涉主义者为发动战争干涉他国内政制造借口,除了进行战争欺骗宣传,把攻击目标国妖魔化外,制造所谓“联合国不作为”假象,也是他们惯用的手法。联合国安理会2118号决议的通过,以及执行初期已经取得的各方均感到基本满意的进展表明,面对像叙利亚发生的化武袭击事件及其化武核查、销毁的严重挑战,联合国是应对这些挑战的最合适国际机构,可以大有作为。虽然面临战争环境、资金不足和时间紧迫等严重困难,只要安理会成员国,特别是“五常”,加强沟通协调,不断求同存异找准共同目标,联合国是可以在明年年中之前完成这一重要使命、创造新的成就的。联合国的作为对阻止美国军事入侵他国发挥了巨大作用。

-  第三,联合国安理会“五常”共同利益不断扩大,共同应对地区冲突,维护世界和平的合作空间扩大。在如何应对叙利亚战乱的问题上,2年多来,美国和俄罗斯好像立场一直相左,没有妥协的余地,一直发展到美国军舰向叙利亚周边海域集结准备动武,而俄罗斯也“例行”增兵同一区域的地步。其实,美俄都看到,美国军事打击叙利亚,导致中东战事扩大,不仅会给中东地区人民带来深重灾难,而且会对美俄两国战略利益造成重创,对谁都没有好处。在全球化和信息技术革命的推动下,联合国“五常”在经济、金融、国际安全等广泛领域利益融合度上升。无论那个地区战事或军事冲突扩大,都会对“五常”的战略利益造成不同程度的伤害,相反,如果“五常”以合作协调姿态应对地区安全挑战,“五常”都将受益。

  第四,奥巴马8年任期处在美国因经受伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争以及国际金融危机重创需要休养生息的关键时期,财政拮据难以支撑美军发动大规模局部战争。军费开支在美国联邦政府预算中占据相当份额,也是造成债务不断攀升的一个重要推手。在美国国内,要求削减军费开支的呼声不断高涨。在讨论2014财年预算和未来10年预算规划的过程中,就有方案建议,到2023年,军费开支占国内生产总值的比例应从目前的4%左右逐渐调降至2。4%,二战后的最低水平。虽然这一方案是否能获国会通过、总统同意后实施,尚不得而知,但削减军费开支的现实可能是确实存在的,况且在自动减支计划实施的近一年中,对军费数百亿美元的削减已经发生。

  鉴于上述种种原因,加上近期出现的美国同伊朗、朝鲜进行外交接触、军事冲突几率降低的新动向,奥巴马有望成为二战结束以来在8年任期中对他国发动大规模军事入侵局部战争较少的美国总统;同时也是对全球监听监控、情报收集强度极高、实施选择性空中军事打击、侵犯他国主权较频繁的美国总统。
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