The Situation in the Middle East Is a Disaster of America's Own Making

Published in The People's Daily
(China) on 7 November 2013
by Tian Wen Lin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chase Coulson. Edited by Brent Landon.
Egypt’s new “Trial of the Century” has been delayed, which is something of a microcosm of the instability in the Middle East. A frequent hot topic in the region is who the mastermind behind it actually is.

Without a doubt, the Middle East has become increasingly chaotic as of late. For the past 60 years the focal point has been the Afghanistan-Israel situation — later downgraded to the Palestine-Israel issue. Ten years ago the Iraq and Iran nuclear issue reared its ugly head; just in the past two years Libya and Syria’s crises have been added into the mix. All in all, we can look to hegemony as the cause of the calamity in region and the prime reason why “troubles” have been piling up with no end in sight to all the unrest.

In 2003, America began a baseless war with Iraq that changed the country from an old-world civilization to a cesspool of crime. Even now there is no end to all the terror, violence and adversity. Currently, the external powers funding and providing guns to rebels inside Syria and looking to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime have caused a once stable oasis to degenerate into a terror zone, a shadow of its former self, a place where refugees have fled the country and the economy is on the verge of collapse. A military offensive led by NATO has led “post-Gadhafi era” Libya — Africa’s richest country — to degenerate into a state of anarchy, a condition of basic material shortages where even essentials like food and clothing are in short supply, not to mention the successive kidnappings of its prime ministers. This chaotic state is precisely due to America’s silence with regards to its ally Israel’s possession of nuclear arms, while carrying out large-scale military suppression in Iran as a result of its peaceful nuclear energy program. These conditions make “Middle East denuclearization” difficult to move forward with.

So, if the Arab world wishes to realize a national and ethnic revival, then who should it “rely on,” who should it “unite with” and who should it “oppose”? Both theory and history have shown that regional alliances are the road to the realization of prosperity and national strength, while division and internal strife are the road to civil unrest and slavery. If the Arab nations wish to reach their goals of anti-hegemony and self-strengthening, then they need to bring local unity to the greatest possible extent and not ignore, and even foster, infighting. During the ‘50s and ‘60s, Arabic nationalist fervor swept through the Arab world; each Arab country transcended its particular political and ideological differences and found strength and solidarity in unity. Ultimately, in major historical incidents like the Suez crisis of 1956, the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the “oil embargoes,” victory was attained and it guaranteed to the greatest possible extent the Arab nations’ territorial security, economic prosperity and international prestige.

In the ‘60s and ‘70s, Arabic nationalism began to wane; after each respective Arab nation began “minding their own affairs,” the Arab world entered into a period of unrest, internal strife and decline: The first was Egypt and Israel’s independent peace treaty, which led to the first schism in the Arab world. Later, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait led to the second. The “feuds between neighbors” have led directly to the “foreign despot conquering all for his own benefit.” After the ending of the Cold War, the Western powers launched five regional wars — the Persian Gulf War, the Kosovo war, the Afghan war, the Iraq War and the war in Libya. Four of them have taken place in the greater Middle East region and three were directed at the Arab world. In August 2013, on the basis of a chemical weapons incident, America nearly launched the “Syrian war.” Even more frightening is this: No one can predict whose head hegemony’s “Sword of Damocles” will strike next.

If the Arab nations want to break out of this vicious cycle, the only way is to once again go the way of Arabic unity: a single language and a single faith for all the Arabic nations. These conditions will be far more advantageous than even those in the European Union. Only in this manner can the Arab world become “the Arab world for the Arab people” with affairs “for the Arab people to decide for themselves.” You are whom you associate with; “studying the West to refute the West” will never solve the Arab World’s disputes. On the contrary, it will only serve to exacerbate an already precarious situation.

The author is a deputy researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.


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埃及新的“世纪审判”推迟,这是中东难题一个缩影。中东热点频发,其罪魁祸首到底是谁?
毋庸置疑,当前中东正变得越来越乱:过去60年主要是阿以问题(后缩小为巴以问题),10年前增添了伊拉克问题和伊朗核问题,近两年又新添了利比亚和叙利亚问题。综合来看,中东之所以“问题”成堆,动荡不止,最大祸根是霸权主义扩张——
正是2003年美国无端发动伊拉克战争,才使伊拉克由昔日文明古国变成动荡渊薮,至今没有结束恐怖暴力厄运;正是外部势力不断为叙利亚反对派出钱出 枪,谋求推翻巴沙尔政权,才使稳定的绿洲沦为恐怖盛行、难民外逃、经济濒临崩溃的半失败国家;正是北约主导军事打击,才使“后卡扎菲时代”的利比亚变成连总理都会被绑架的无政府状态,非洲第一富国坠入缺衣少吃的物资匮乏状态;正是由于美国对铁杆盟友以色列拥有核武器缄默不语,却对伊朗和平利用核能计划大举讨伐,才使“中东无核化”难以推进。因此,毫不夸张地说,霸权主义才是中东稳定与发展的最大威胁。
那么,阿拉伯世界要想实现民族复兴,到底该“依靠谁,团结谁,反对谁”?理论和历史表明,地区国家团结联合是共同实现繁荣富强之路,而分裂与内讧则是通往动荡和奴役之路。阿拉伯国家要想实现反霸自强目标,最该做的就是最大限度地实现地区国家联合,而不是放任甚至助长内讧不断的趋势。上世纪五六十年代, 阿拉伯民族主义风起云涌,阿拉伯各国超越政治制度、意识形态等差异,众志成城,最终在1956年苏伊士运河战争、1973年赎罪日战争以及“石油禁运”等重大历史事件中取得胜利,最大限度保障了阿拉伯国家的领土安全、经济权益及国际声望。
而当上世纪六七十年代阿拉伯民族主义衰落、阿拉伯国家开始“各家自扫门前雪”之后,阿拉伯世界便进入动荡和内讧交替的衰落周期:先是埃及单独与以色列媾和导致了阿拉伯世界首次公开分裂,后是伊拉克入侵科威特导致阿拉伯世界再次分裂。正是由于阿拉伯各国“鹬蚌相争”,才使外部霸权国“渔翁得利”。冷战结束后,西方大国共发动了5场地区战争(海湾战争、科索沃战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争、利比亚战争),其中4场发生在大中东地区,3场直接针对阿拉伯世界。2013年8月以来,美国又差点借化武事件发动“叙利亚战争”……更可怕的是,没人能预料霸权主义的“达摩克利斯之剑”,下次会落到谁的头上。
阿拉伯国家要想走出恶性循环的怪圈,唯一办法就是重新走阿拉伯团结联合之路。阿拉伯国家共用一种语言,信奉同一种宗教,实现团结联合,条件远比欧洲优越。唯有如此,才可能使“阿拉伯世界成为阿拉伯人的世界,阿拉伯事务由阿拉伯人自己解决”。开门揖盗和“以夷制夷”,不可能解决阿拉伯世界的矛盾和纠纷, 反而会使问题变得更加复杂。
(作者为中国现代国际关系研究院副研究员)
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