Once again things backfired. Many analysts issued warnings, but sometimes I ask myself how it is possible that with the United States having so many think tanks dedicated to the study of the Middle East, the White House still makes mistakes in that region. It was to be expected that terrorist groups, after receiving financing from Washington and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf to overthrow the Syrian government by force, would be out of control and ignoring their sponsors.
Therefore, Washington and London decided to suspend their aid to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), but only in the country in conflict’s north after a radical group, the Islamic Front, attacked FSA arsenals on the border with Turkey and seized anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons.
The attitude of the foreign powers, fundamentally the U.S., is due to the fear that the war material may fall into the hands of jihadi groups, something they say they have tried to avoid since the start of the conflict, identifying moderate elements to whom they could offer their assistance.
Everybody knew that those groups were there, that they arrived from Iraq, Libya, Turkey, the Persian Gulf and other parts of the world, Western countries included, but they did not care because they served their interests and their goal of regime change.
They gave them weapons, money, political and diplomatic support, but now some of the financial backers seem to have become convinced that if they keep betting on the war, the situation could get out of hand. Many even consider that it would be preferable to have a transition led by the current government if a trustworthy ally cannot be found rather than allowing it to succumb to Islamic extremism, which could be counterproductive for Western interests.
Nevertheless, Washington and London have not abandoned their objective to overthrow Bashar Assad’s government. And if they now say they are counting on a political solution to the conflict through the Geneva II negotiations, as the international peace conference promoted by Russia and the U.S. is called, it is only because the Obama administration wants to negotiate an agreement that will lead to Assad’s exit.
Furthermore, the announced halt in military aid is only temporary. The FSA will continue to receive assistance in other parts of Syria, and for now it is trying to convince Washington and London that the weekend’s events were a “misunderstanding” and that the decision to leave them without supplies is hasty and mistaken, and therefore, they ask for more time until “things [are] clearer.”
That way the FSA plays down its disputes with the Islamic Front and alleges that there was no attack on its part over the weekend, but a “support” action that it had requested to defend its bases against the group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which together with the al-Nusra Front is linked to al-Qaida.
However, what is clear is that this past Dec. 3 the Islamic Front announced it was quitting the FSA Supreme Military Command, arguing it no longer represented them.
The FSA does not want to lose Western support, but they also know that when they have made progress in the war against Damascus it has been thanks to the influx of terrorist groups.
Washington is worried mainly by the loss of strength in what it calls the moderate opposition — also armed — against the push by jihadis and the rumors about the flight out of the country of the head of the FSA Supreme Military Command, General Salim Idris, also put it on alert because if it is true, it means it is slowly running out of chips to present and legitimize as counterparts to Assad.
And thus Geveva II is approaching, but its obstacles have yet to be cleared.
Una vez más el tiro les salió por la culata. Muchos analistas lo advirtieron, pero a veces me pregunto cómo es posible que teniendo Estados Unidos tantos tanques pensantes dedicados al estudio del Oriente Medio, la Casa Blanca comete errores en esa región. Era de esperarse que las bandas terroristas, después que recibieron financiamiento de Washington y países árabes del Golfo Pérsico para derrocar por la fuerza al Gobierno sirio, estén descontroladas, y no hagan caso a sus sponsors.
Por eso, Washington y Londres decidieron suspender su asistencia militar al denominado Ejército Libre Sirio (ELS), pero solo en el norte del país en conflicto, después que una agrupación radical, Combatientes del Frente Islámico, asaltara el fin de semana unos arsenales del ELS en la frontera con Turquía y se apropiaran de armas antiaéreas y antitanques.
La actitud de estas potencias, fundamentalmente de EE.UU., responde a los temores de que el material de guerra caiga en manos de grupos yihadistas, algo que dicen han tratado de evitar desde el principio del conflicto, identificando a elementos moderados a los que ofrecerles su asistencia.
Todos sabían que esos grupos estaban allí, que llegaban desde Iraq, Libia, Turquía, el Golfo Pérsico y desde otros lugares del mundo, incluidos países occidentales, pero no les importaba porque servían a sus intereses y al objetivo de cambio de régimen.
Les dieron armas, dinero, apoyo político y diplomático…, pero ahora, algunos financiadores parecen haberse convencido de que si siguen apostando a la guerra, la situación se les puede salir de las manos. Incluso muchos consideran preferible una transición timoneada por el actual Gobierno si no se encuentra un socio fiable, antes que dejarla que sucumba en el extremismo islámico, que puede ser contraproducente a los intereses occidentales.
No obstante, la actitud de Washington y Londres no han abandonado su objetivo de derrocar al Gobierno de Bashar al-Assad. Y si ahora dicen apostar a la solución política del conflicto a través de las negociaciones de Ginebra II, como se denomina la conferencia internacional de paz que impulsan Rusia y EE.UU., es solo porque la administración Obama quiere pujar un pacto que derive en la salida de Al-Assad.
Además, el anunciado cese de la ayuda militar es solo temporal. El ELS seguirá recibiendo asistencia en otras localidades sirias, y por el momento se encarga de convencer a Washington y a Londres de que los sucesos del fin de semana fueron un «malentendido» y de que la decisión de dejarlos sin suministros es apresurada y equivocada, y por tanto, le piden tiempo hasta que «los acontecimientos se aclaren».
Así el ELS minimiza sus disputas con los Combatientes del Frente Islámico, y alega que el fin de semana no hubo ataque por parte de ese grupo, sino una acción de «apoyo» que le pidió para defender sus bases de la banda Estado Islámico de Iraq y del Levante, que junto al Frente Al-Nusra está vinculado a Al-Qaeda.
Sin embargo, lo que sí está claro es que el pasado día 3 de diciembre, el Frente islámico anunció su salida del estado mayor del ELS, arguyendo que este ya no les representaba.
El ELS no quiere quedarse sin el respaldo de Occidente, pero también saben que cuando han avanzado en la guerra contra el Gobierno de Damasco ha sido gracias a la inyección de grupos terroristas.
Washington, principalmente, está preocupado por la pérdida de fuerza de lo que denomina oposición moderada, armada también, frente al empuje de los yihadistas, y los rumores sobre la huída al exterior del jefe del Estado Mayor del ELS, el general Salim Idriss, les pone otra nota de alerta, porque si fuera verdad, poco a poco se van quedando sin fichas que presentar y legitimar como contraparte a Al-Assad.
Así se va acercando Ginebra II, sin que se despejen sus obstáculos.
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The madness lies in asserting something ... contrary to all evidence and intelligence. The method is doing it again and again, relentlessly, at full volume ... This is how Trump became president twice.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.