U.S. May Create “Super Inflation” and Make the World Suffer

Published in People's Daily
(China) on April 10, 2009
by Fou Zhe and Ma Jianbo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eugene Tan. Edited by .
As the financial crisis continues to evolve, the U.S. government plans to adopt relaxed monetary policies to save the market. And for this, all parts of the world are staying on high alert. On April 10, Hong Kong’s Wen Wei Po published a signed article indicating that the U.S.’s power consciousness will not change and that we should all be vigilant of the U.S.'s exporting inflation. Extracts from the article are shown below:

The late great American economist Milton Friedman once said that as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve drops money from a helicopter, the problems of economic recession and inflation can be solved. This means that the market can be saved as long as quantitative easing monetary policies are implemented, meaning the printing of money in full force. In 2002, the academician and present Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke said the same thing, explaining his theory on monetary policy and practicing what he preaches. Either it is just a coincidence, or it may be an economic guru’s enlightening remarks and farsightedness that have enabled Bernanke to put this saying to use.

Inflation relieves deflation. Bubbles relieve bubbles.

The U.K. took the lead in announcing that it would initiate and implement “quantitative easing” monetary policies by having the Bank of England buy government bonds, lower long-term interest rates, and revive revolving credit. On March 18, the Federal Open Market Committee quickly followed along and announced that within the next six months, it would buy $300 billion of long-term government bonds in order to relieve pressure on private credit markets. It looks like the U.S. government has run out of tricks; the only option is to run the massive money printing presses in high gear and act out the myth of “inflation saving deflation and bubbles saving bubbles.” The only people who buy into this would still be those creditors who fear depreciation of foreign debt but have no other alternative.

Most markets expect that Europe, Japan, and other countries may follow the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve and successively adopt extreme monetary policies. The power of quantitative easing monetary policies cannot be underestimated. If each country considers import-export trade protectionism, currency safety, deflation remedies, etc., and all follow along, there may be short-term stimulation of the economy, but in the long term, it will certainly result in hyperinflation on a global scale. If things go on as Warren Buffett says – that a period of hyperinflation may exceed the global inflation crisis of 1973 – then what awaits the world is not just in a bitter economic chill but rather in an endless Ice Age of stagflation.

Quantitative easing is a double-edged sword

The continued, excessive issuance of the U.S. dollar is relieving the U.S. economic bubble and causing the unemployment rate to increase quickly. (It already exceeds 8.5%.) It has caused the economic recession to worsen and has also promoted the draining of floating capital out the U.S. and Europe, into Asia and emerging markets.

At the same time, with the U.S.’s and the U.K.’s complete implementation of quantitative easing monetary policies, the global base money supply will continue to increase. A new storm of hyperinflation has already begun to brew quietly. According to statistics, just in January of this year, the monetary base increase reached 107%, which is the first time since 1908 that a three-digit increase has been seen. Perhaps, this will enable us to predict with certainty that global hyperinflation will erupt.

Optimize the financial structure to address hyperinflation.

China is already the U.S.’s largest creditor nation, and in the future, China should be all the more careful to adjust the structure of its strategic foreign reserves; increase strategic energy sources, resources, and technological reserves; pay more attention to changes in its own economic development and adjustments to its industrial structure; and balance the structure of its production capacities. China should also further strengthen, perfect, secure and create new laws, systems and policy arrangements to ensure strong domestic demand. China must proactively address this potentially imminent crisis of hyperinflation. This goes back to the saying of not believing in “crocodile tears.” Although the U.S. has had many different presidents and political party changes, the U.S. deep down has a mentality of hegemony, a logic of power, and the natural instincts of a bully. This will not change.


美国可能制造"超级通胀"祸害世界

随着金融危机不断发展,美国政府为救市,打算采取宽松货币政策。对此,世界各地都保持高度警惕。香港《文汇报》10日发表署名文章指出,美国的强权意识不会改变,要警惕其输出通货膨胀。文章摘录如下:

  美国已故经济大师弗里德曼曾经说过:“只要美联储坐直升机撒钱,就可解决经济衰退和通缩的问题。”这就是说,只要实施量化宽松货币政策,即开足马力大印钞票就可以救市。2002年学院派出身的现任美联储主席伯南克亦引用此言,阐释其货币政策理论,并身体力行。不知是巧合、还是对美国的经济实证早有预见,大师的高论,竟成为伯南克运用的现实。

  通胀救通缩 泡沫救泡沫

  英国率先公布启动落实“量化宽松” 货币政策,透过英伦银行购入政府债券,以压低长期利率,恢复信贷循环。3月18日,美联储公开市场委员会,立马跟进,宣布将于未来6个月内,购入3000 亿美元的较长期国债,以缓解私人信贷市场的压力。看来美国政府到了黔驴技穷的地步,惟有将印钞机开足马力,大印特印,继续上演“以通胀救通缩,以泡沫救泡沫”的神话。最后的买单者,仍是那些恐惧外债资产大幅贬值缩水,却又无可奈何的债主们。

  市场普遍预期欧、日等国可能效法美联储,相继采取极端货币策略。量化宽松货币政策的威力不可小视。如果各国处于自身进出口贸易保护、货币安全和改善通缩等考虑,而纷纷效法,虽然短期内有刺激经济的作用,但中长期而言,势必激发全球更大规模的恶性通胀。若如巴菲特所言:此次恶性通胀“或将超过1973年”的全球通胀危机,那么,等待全球的不仅仅是严酷的经济寒冬,很可能是漫长的滞胀冰河岁月。

  量化宽松是一把双刃剑

  由于美元持续超发,已导致美式经济泡沫不断释出,失业率加速上升(现已突破8.5%)和经济加剧衰退,更加推动了美欧游资向亚洲区域等新兴市场外流。

  同时,随着美英量化宽松货币政策的全面实施,全球基础货币供应将持续上升,新一轮恶性通胀已在悄然酝酿之中。据统计:仅今年1月,MO(货币基础结余) 增长就高达107%,是1908年有纪录以来首次出现3位数增幅。这也许能为我们预测和把握全球恶性通胀爆发的时间,提供依据和启示。

  优化金融结构 应对恶性通胀

  中国已是美国最大的债权国,未来更应调整外汇储备结构的战略配置,增加战略能源、资源、技术储备,并多着眼于自身经济发展方式的转型,以及产业结构的调整和产能结构的平衡,进一步健全完善确保真正启动庞大内需市场的法律、制度和政策安排,以积极应对这场可能到来的恶性通胀危机。还是那句话,不要相信鳄鱼的眼泪。美国虽有历届政党轮替,总统更新,但骨子里的霸主意识、强权逻辑和恃强凌弱的本性是不会改变的。(剻辙 马建波)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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  1. “Although the U.S. has had many different presidents and political party changes, the U.S. deep down has a mentality of hegemony, a logic of power, and the natural instincts of a bully. This will not change.”

    as an american I can state you nailed it.

    do you have any idea how sad it is to be an american and watch you country that you love self destruct and cause suffering through out the world due to selfishness.

    the concept of hedgemony is spot on. I cannot improve on that as a reflection of my beloved country.

    we had such potential and we blew it but we will learn just as the japanese learned and the germans learned what not to do.

    we are like a selfish teen it is all about us and only us.

    few americans very few will understand your words. but keep loaning us money and we will continue being the bully in the world. takes two to tangle.