Joe’s Decision

Published in Excélsior
(Mexico) on 6 October 2015
by Ana Paula Ordorica (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stuart Taylor. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
It seems that this weekend Joe Biden will make public his decision about whether or not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination. This is a battle that has so far been rather lively on the Republican side, but quite the opposite on the Democrat's side. It has been a boring battle.

Yes, there is Hillary Clinton’s email scandal, and polls show that the popularity of the independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has increased, but in the end, both phenomena merely reflect the fact that very little is occurring there.

That is why expectations are so high surrounding the decision of current Vice President Joe Biden, a man who managed to gain a significant degree of popularity throughout President Obama’s time in office and whose potential candidacy one in five Democrats nationwide see positively.

Will Biden Be Given a Third Chance?

He could do it, first and foremost because he has grown a lot, politically speaking, since those two fleeting attempts to achieve the nomination of his party in 1987 and 2008.

One of those two past attempts came to an end just three months after it began, in June of 1987, when he was accused of plagiarizing a speech by British politician Neil Kinnock.

His 2008 effort lasted a little longer. He campaigned for a year until he achieved less than 1 percent at the Iowa caucus in January of that year.

A few months later, given [Biden's] experience with foreign policy, Barack Obama invited him to be his running mate during such complicated times for the United States, which included dealing with two wars and a very poor image in the Arab world.

Another reason in favor of making a third attempt is that he would be fulfilling the final wish of his son Beau, who, before succumbing to cancer this past May, asked his father to run for president one more time.

Yet, I see two problems with the potential candidacy of Biden. The first is that, as he himself said, in order to achieve the presidency of the most powerful country in the world, you need to be 110 percent convinced.

A Biden who is weighing whether or not to run five months after Hillary Clinton, his strongest Democratic rival, began her campaign does not seem to be that committed.

The second problem is that the most recent polls show that if Biden enters the battle, he would manage to take several points away from Hillary Clinton — but this would only strengthen Sanders, not make [Biden] the favorite.

The question asked by The Washington Post, by many Americans and probably by Biden himself these days is whether the second most popular politician in the United States wants to play the role of robbing the lead from Clinton — and nothing else — in his third attempt to be nominated by his party.

It appears to be a rather mediocre role for Biden, who is expected to make his decision public before his party’s first debate, which will take place next Tuesday, Oct. 13.


La decisión de Joe
06 de Octubre de 2015
Todo apunta a que Joe Biden haga pública su decisión respecto de entrarle o no a la contienda por la nominación demócrata este fin de semana. Una contienda que mientras del lado republicano ha tenido mucho movimiento, en el lado demócrata se ha caracterizado por lo opuesto. Ha sido una contienda aburrida.

Sí, está el escándalo de los correos de Hillary Clinton y en las encuestas ha subido el senador independiente por Vermont, Bernie Sanders, pero al final ambos fenómenos son reflejo de que no hay mucho sucediendo ahí.

Por ello hay tanta expectativa respecto de la decisión del actual vicepresidente Joe Biden. Un hombre que ha llegado a ser bastante popular a lo largo del gobierno de Obama y cuya posible candidatura es vista con ojos positivos por uno de cada cinco demócratas a nivel nacional.

¿Se dará una tercera oportunidad Biden?

Podría hacerlo primero que nada porque ha crecido políticamente mucho desde aquellos dos fugaces intentos, el de 1987 y el de 2008, por alcanzar la nominación de su partido.
En esos dos intentos pasados, uno acabó apenas tres meses después de que se lanzara, en junio de 1987, cuando se le acusó de plagiar un discurso del político británico Neil Kinnock

El intento de 2008 duró un poco más. Fue un anuncio y campaña de un año que concluyó cuando obtuvo menos de 1% en el caucus de Iowa en enero de ese año.
Pocos meses después fue invitado por Barack Obama para ser su compañero de fórmula, dada su experiencia en política exterior en momentos complicados en ese rubro para Estados Unidos, que lidiaba con dos guerras y una muy mala imagen en el mundo árabe.

Otra razón para lanzarse una tercera vez es que estaría cumpliendo con la última voluntad de su hijo Beau, quien antes de fallecer víctima de cáncer en mayo pasado le pidió a su padre que se lanzara una vez más por la Presidencia.

No obstante, veo dos problemas en la posible candidatura de Biden. El primero es que, como él mismo ha dicho, para buscar la Presidencia del país más poderoso del mundo hay que estar 110% convencidos.

Un Biden que está valorando si entrarle o no cinco meses después de que se lanzara la más fuerte rival de los demócratas, Hillary Clinton, no parece estar así de comprometido.
El segundo problema es que los números de las más recientes encuestas muestran que si Biden le entra a la contienda lograría arrebatarle varios puntos a Hillary Clinton, pero esto sólo fortalecería a Sanders, no logra colocarse como favorito.

La pregunta que The Washington Post, muchos norteamericanos y, seguramente, el propio Biden se hacen estos días es si el segundo político más importante de Estados Unidos quiere jugar ese papel de arrebatarle liderazgo a Clinton y nada más, en su tercer intento por hacerse de la nominación de su partido.

Parece un papel bastante mediocre para Biden, quien se espera haga pública su decisión antes del primer debate de su partido, que será el próximo martes 13.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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