The US Primaries after New Hampshire

Published in Analítica
(Venezuela) on 13 February 2016
by Emilio Figueredo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Natalie Harrison. Edited by Bora Mici.
The results of the primaries in New Hampshire show a dangerous trend in the American electorate toward distinct facets of populism.

On one side, in the Republican Party, Donald Trump continues to advance toward a possible nomination for the presidency in the November election. Until now, it has been a grind for the candidates to the point that of the more than 17 people who postured in this big race, only six survive in addition to Trump: Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Carson and Gilmore, and the last two will probably disappear from the scene after the South Carolina primaries.

The questions everyone is asking in the U.S. are: Can Marco Rubio stop Trump’s triumphant march, and can Bush regain ground in the Southern states? Kasich is too moderate for the Republicans, and Cruz generates many significant rebukes within the party.

What’s crucial is that it would appear that in both parties, the establishment cannot contain the desire for change expressed by the anti-establishment populism that drives both Trump and Sanders.

There’s still a lot that remains to be seen, and depending on the results in South Carolina, it would be best to know if the conditions are right for Hillary Clinton to break down the wave of youth that pushes Sanders forward, and whether she can capture the female vote and retain the Latino and African-American vote.

On the Republican side, a win for Trump in South Carolina appears more probable, but if neither Rubio nor Bush comes in strongly at second place, Trump’s triumphal march will become an election phenomenon similar to that of Ronald Reagan in his time.

If the populism of the right or left wins in the United States, the consequences there may be catastrophic. We hope that American voters have the sense to elect a more rational man or woman, politically speaking.


Los resultados de las primarias en New Hampshire parecen mostrar una tendencia peligrosa en el electorado norteamericano hacia distintas facetas del populismo.

Por un lado, en el partido republicano, Donald Trump sigue avanzando sin contendores hacia una posible nominación a la candidatura presidencial en la convención de noviembre. Hasta ahora ha ido moliendo candidatos hasta el punto que de los más de los 17 que se postularon en esta larga carrera, solo quedan con algo de vida seis: Cruz, Roble, Kasich, Bush, Carson y Gilmore, y estos dos últimos probablemente desaparecerán del escenario luego de las primarias de Carolina del Sur.

¿Las preguntas que todos se hacen en EEUU podrá Marco Rubio detener esa marcha triunfante de Trump? ¿ Podrá Bush recobrar espacio en los estados sureños? Kasich es demasiado moderado para los republicanos y Cruz genera muchos rechazos importantes en el partido.

El tema crucial  es que pareciera que ,en ambos partidos, la maquinaria no puede contener el deseo de cambio expresado por el populismo de signos contrarios que empuja tanto a Trump como a Sanders.

Falta todavía mucha tela  por cortar y dependiendo de los resultados en Carolina del Sur se podrá saber mejor si Hillary está en condiciones de desmontar la ola de jóvenes que impulsan a Sanders y si puede capturar el voto femenino y conservar el de los latinos y de los negros.

En el lado de los republicanos un triunfo de Trump en Carolina del Sur que parece más que probable, si no ubica en un buen segundo lugar a Rubio o Bush, hará que su marcha triunfal lo convierta en un fenómeno electoral parecido al que en su tiempo género Reagan.

Si triunfa el populismo de derecha o de izquierda en EEUU las consecuencias para ese país pueden ser catastróficas esperemos que los electores norteamericanos tengan la sensatez suficiente para elegir a un hombre o una mujer más sensatos políticamente hablando.
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