Trump: The Populist Joke that Became a Reality

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 14 March 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Trevor Cook. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
United States Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s original plan to hold a campaign rally in Chicago on the evening of March 11 set off a confrontation between thousands of his supporters and protesters. Rally activities had to be cancelled, and the situation only calmed down after police intervention and multiple arrests. Physical altercations among supporters of different candidates and the complete inability to tolerate competition are typically manifestations of elections in the societies of developing countries; however, lately, an intense "struggle of the masses against the masses" has appeared within the context of the United States election and is having a major impact.

Trump is a bit like the young “Monkey King" of American politics, showing up and turning everything upside down. He repeatedly makes remarks with strong racist overtones, castigates ethnic Mexicans as "rapists," and promotes the building of a "Great Wall" on the U.S.-Mexico border. He also opposes the entry of Muslims into the United States, publicly refuses to condemn the Ku Klux Klan, and disrespects famous female television hosts. He seems to be deliberately challenging the "political correctness" of United States political circles.

Some analysts believe that Trump is an “accidental” hero of the Republican election. In the beginning, nobody took any notice of this narcissistic old man with a bit of money and a penchant for saying irritating things — he was just a "clown" who helped draw some attention to the Republican primary election. However, nobody imagined that this "buffoon" would actually become a big deal, knocking out the Republican Party's favored candidates one by one.

The entire mainstream of the Republican Party dislikes Trump. If Trump should win the primary, then the Republican Party will face an excruciating decision: whether or not to actually nominate him as the Republican candidate for president. Nominating him would not agree with the Republican Party's conventional values, and it would increase the likelihood of losing to the Democrats. Not nominating him leaves open the possibility that Trump will run as an independent candidate, splitting the Republican vote and handing the Republicans an even more dramatic loss.

Some say that Trump is "eating the Republican Party's food and breaking its cooking pot” — quite the vivid image.

The phenomenon of Trump can be said to have revealed the upheaval of thought within American society. According to analyses, his main supporters are lower-class whites who feel they have had enough of post-financial crisis America. The United States has always had the largest and most stable middle class in the West, but in the last few years, the middle class has been diverging, with a minority of them rising upward and the majority sliding downward, pressed to the point of appearing less and less a part of the middle class.

Through quantitative easing and other tricks, the United States has restored some surface prosperity to its economy, but the benefits of these changes have not reached down to the middle class. Much anger at globalization and domestic problems has built up in the depths of American society, which needs someone to help them vent.

Trump came at just the right time. He has a big mouth. He defies convention. He is foul-mouthed, often speaking emptily about "beating” or “roughing up” some such person or other; populism must make its supporters feel like they are getting satisfaction. Most general elections are incapable of improving the fate of the people, something Americans know through experience. So why not take the opportunity to vent a little? Thus, the number of Trump supporters continues to increase, creating the "accidental hero” of the above-mentioned scholars.

The rise of a nationalist in American politics has also caused unease around the world. American politics are usually predictable, but Trump represents an unpredictable reality where "anything is possible." Trump's willingness to castigate anybody internationally seems to be genuine; he even dares to challenge possessors of nuclear weapons. In the international realm, there are always people comparing him to Mussolini or Hitler, voices that come from both the West and developing countries.

The Western history of elections has already taught us difficult lessons about what happens when a great dictator is elected, but currently, the majority of analysts still believe that the United States electoral system will ultimately prevent Trump from becoming president. He likely will turn out to be a "false alarm" in American democracy.

Still, the rise of Trump, even as a “false alarm,” is too much. The strength of the influence he has exerted up to this point has already clearly given the message that the United States is "sick." This sickness is both a result of accumulated stress from present conflicts and also the realization of latent systemic problems.

With internal populism at such a fever pitch, one can infer how much potential energy American society’s outward-facing nationalism must have accumulated. Perhaps, the United States needs to rigorously guard against unleashing its power to destroy world peace; that would be much more meaningful in reality than its criticism of any "nationalism" or "tyranny" in other countries.


社评:特朗普,弄假成真的民粹主义偶像

美国大选共和党参选人特朗普原定11日晚在芝加哥举行竞选造势大会,引发数千名支持者和抗议者的对峙,后造势活动被迫取消,经警方介入才平息事态,有多人被捕。支持不同竞选者的选民发生肢体冲突,完全容不下对方,这通常是发展中社会大选时的表现,如今美国的选举也出现火药味十足的“群众斗群众”,非常有冲击力。

  特朗普有点像美国政治中的“孙猴子”,把一切都掀翻了。他不断说出种族主义色彩强烈的言论,骂墨西哥裔是“强奸犯”,主张在墨美边境“修长城”。还反对穆斯林进入美国,公开展示对谴责三K党的拒绝,羞辱著名电视女主持人等等。他像是在成心挑战美国政坛的“政治正确性”。

  一些分析人士认为,特朗普是一个被“弄假成真”的共和党选举偶像。一开始没人把这个有点钱、自恋、专挑刺激话说的老头子当回事,他只是帮共和党初选吸引眼球的一个“小丑”。然而谁也没有想到,这个“丑角”竟然做大了,把共和党原本被看好的参选人纷纷打翻在地。

  共和党内的主流派都不喜欢特朗普,一旦后者赢得初选,共和党将面临艰难抉择:到底推不推他作为共和党总统候选人。推他,不符合共和党的传统价值观,而且输给民主党的可能性太大了。不推他,特朗普就可能以独立候选人身份参选,分掉共和党的选票,共和党将输得更无悬念。

  有人说,特朗普“吃共和党的饭,砸共和党的锅”,蛮形象的。

  特朗普现象可谓揭开了美国社会思想动荡的盖子。据分析,他的主要支持者是美国下层白人群体,他们对金融危机以来的美国感觉“受够了”。美国一直有着西方最庞大,也最稳固的中产阶级,但这些年美国的中产阶级在分化,少部分人向上运动,更多的人向下出溜,生活窘迫得越来越不像中产阶级。

  美国通过量化宽松等手腕恢复了经济的一些表面繁荣,然而这些变化的好处没有落到中产阶级头上,美国社会深处集聚了对全球化以及对国内问题的诸多愤怒情绪,需要有人帮他们发泄。

  特朗普来得正是时候。他嘴大,反传统,说话骂骂咧咧,经常把要“揍谁”“抽谁”挂在嘴上,民粹主义得让支持人们感觉很过瘾。大选多数时候改善不了人们的命运,这已是美国人的经验,那还不如借这个机会出口气,于是支持特朗普的人越来越多,形成了上文学者们所指的“弄假成真”。

  一名种族主义者在美国政坛的崛起也给世界上带来不安。美国政治通常是可预测的,但特朗普代表了“各种可能性”和“不可预测性”。特朗普在国际上“谁都骂”,好像是敢动真格,甚至“敢动核武器的主”,国际上现在不断有人把他类比成“墨索里尼”或者“希特勒”。这些声音既来自西方,也来自发展中国家。

  西方选举史上的确有过选出大独裁者的深刻教训,但是目前多数分析人士依然相信,美国选举机制将最终阻止特朗普成为总统,他很可能是美国民主的“一场虚惊”。

  然而即使特朗普只是“虚惊”,也已经很过分了。他迄今营造出的影响力已经清晰告诉人们美国“生病了”,这场病既是大量现实矛盾的“积劳成疾”,也是体制性基因隐患被激活所致。

  内部的民粹主义已有如此活跃度,可以想见美国社会的对外民族主义已经积攒了多大能量。美或许需要严防自己对世界和平的破坏性力量输出,这比它对别国的“民族主义”及“暴政”指摘、抨击更具有现实意义。
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