Why Do So Many People Support Trump? Will Trump Be Able To Govern America?

Published in Sina Blog
(China) on 9 March 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Winnie Xiao. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
This article will not introduce basic information about Donald Trump because many readers are already familiar with him, but instead I will emphasize the following topics:

- The current reaction of American society toward Trump;
- Is Trump really a suitable presidential candidate for the Republican Party? Is there any way for the Republican Party to attack Trump?
- If the majority of the mainstream media and public dislike Trump, how has he gained so many votes? What kind of American supports Trump?
- If Trump is elected president, what will America be like?

Current Reaction of American Society Toward Trump

During last week’s Super Tuesday, Trump won in seven states, which was a watershed moment in the election. Before this, not many people had taken Trump seriously even though he repeatedly led in opinion polls. Many media outlets even provided analysis that completely differentiated between opinion polls and actual elections, and reported that the people who support Trump generally have a low voter turnout, noting that during the actual election, they will not vote for Trump.

But what is the actual situation? During Super Tuesday, there were 8 million Republicans who voted in contrast to 5.5 million Democrats. Looking at Super Tuesday in 2008, there were 5 million Republicans and 8 million Democrats; the numbers have reversed. Trump has a powerful ability to mobilize the voters, bringing those who don’t usually vote onto the political scene.

As of Super Tuesday, people realize that they can no longer take Trump as a mere joke; his chance of getting elected is growing larger and larger.

After Super Tuesday, according to Google’s data editor, the searches for “how can I move to Canada” on Google spiked by 350 percent in four hours. This event was immediately reported by many popular media outlets, and that search multiplied 10 times during the remainder of the week.

A Toronto City Council member even tweeted that he welcomes all Americans, and included a link to the official Canadian immigration site. This tweet was re-tweeted nearly 50,000 times.

But this event should only be viewed only as humorous commentary. First, during every election in the past, the search for “how can I move to Canada” on Google has increased as a demonstration of disappointment. Second, many people conduct such a search simply out of curiosity.

The “big guys” of the Republican Party are all agitated as well. Presidential candidates from previous elections, Mitt Romney and John McCain, both publicly criticized Trump, warning the public not to vote for him. On March 2, more than 70 Republicans with prominent positions signed a petition saying that if Trump really does become the Republican presidential candidate, they will instead vote for Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders).

And with respect to Trump’s vow of using severe punishment on terrorists and their family members (which is illegal and violates international human rights), retired statesmen of the U.S. Army said that if Trump is elected, the Army could possibly refuse to carry out his orders.

Former New York mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg said recently that he will not run for president as an independent. Bloomberg has an excellent reputation, having showed his abilities during his tenure as mayor of New York. During every recent presidential election, many people encouraged Bloomberg to participate, but he never joined the race.

Initially, Bloomberg did want to join this time, and he even created a campaign slogan. But now he has indicated he was deciding against running because the numerical model predicts that if Trump really did become the Republican candidate, Bloomberg’s participation would definitely take votes away from the Democratic candidate (whether it is Clinton or Sanders), that objectively it would in fact provide an advantage for Trump in winning the election, and that in good conscience, he could not accept such a result.

Is Trump Really a Suitable Presidential Candidate for the Republican Party? Is There Any Way for the Republican Party to Attack Trump?

There are two key numbers: 1237 and eight. We will discuss each one in turn.

The American presidential election is the most complicated and time-consuming election in the world. Even many Americans are confused about the long list of rules. It is also different for different parties and states. I will only talk about the basic rules of the election in this section.

Currently, the primary elections are taking place in individual states to select the presidential candidate for each party. This process is more interesting to examine because everyone can vote, and the votes are counted state by state. After the primaries, the party candidate that wins goes on to a general election for the presidency on Nov. 8.

Take the Republican Party as an example. The party’s presidential candidate will be selected July 18 at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. A total of 2,472 people will be participating in this convention, and each state is assigned a certain number of delegates whose vote is weighted as one. To win the party’s nomination, the Republican presidential candidate must secure more than half the votes, or 1,237.

Yet, generally speaking, this process is merely “show” because the voters can only distribute their votes based on the result of their states’ primary election (the ones that are happening now). How do they distribute the votes? Some states distribute votes proportionately. For example, the state of Virginia has 49 seats, and these 49 seats will be distributed based on the ratio of the primary election results. Because Trump won more than 34.7 percent of the vote, he gained 49 times 34.7 percent, or 17 votes. The four other candidates won 16, 8, 5, and 3 votes respectively. Some states apply the “winner takes all” rule, meaning that the candidate with the most votes wins all the votes at the convention. For example, South Carolina has 50 seats, and because Trump received the most votes during the state’s primary election, he gets all 50 votes at the convention, and the other candidates do not gain anything.

[Ed.: Please go to the original article to view the graphic in question.] The states in dark green are those states that operate as “winner take all” states. There are other complications that I will not explain in this article.

Therefore, if you add all the votes that each candidate gained in the primary elections, that adds up to the candidate’s final vote at the convention. This means that before the convention even begins, the party’s presidential candidate has in fact been decided.

Now, the first thing that the Republicans have to do is to prevent Trump from gaining power in individual states and stop him from gaining more than 1,237 votes.

In the primaries that have taken place to date, Trump has gained 384 votes, Ted Cruz (who is in second place) has 300 votes, and the other two candidates have 151 votes and 37 votes.

If any of the other candidates eventually wins more than 1,237 votes, that candidate will become the Republican candidate, and Trump with be eliminated from the race, which is the most ideal situation for the party.

But if no one wins more than 1,237 votes, then there will be a second round of voting. This time, the delegates at the convention will be able to vote at their own discretion, rather than on behalf of the states. Therefore, what the Republicans need to do now is to let people who are against Trump attend the convention and eliminate Trump in the second round.

The worst scenario is that Trump gets 1,237 votes; however, the Republicans can still find a way out. Such a situation exists because in the Republican Party’s rules provide that the candidate must win more than a majority in at least eight states. In addition, the rule can be amended at any time. For example, if Trump does win the majority in eight states, the Republicans can change the minimum state rule to nine.

Another bit of good news is the fact that some states use open elections, meaning that voters who are not Republicans can also participate in a Republican election. A large proportion of Trump’s votes have come from independent voters. Many states that have not yet held a primary use a closed election, which means only members of the Republican Party can vote. Undoubtedly, Trump’s support will diminish.

As we analyze it, it will still be rather difficult for Trump to become the Republican presidential candidate. Nevertheless, the Republicans cannot be ruthless. If it comes to the point where Republicans have to alter the rules to regulate Trump, it could backfire with citizens, and the situation could become difficult. Apparently, the Republicans are already preparing a police force to deal with convention day, fearing riots. Even if there are no riots, the morale of Republican members may be shattered as well.

If the Majority of the Mainstream Media and Public Dislike Trump, How Has He Gained So Many Votes? What Kind of American Supports Trump?

This is a question that many foreigners have, and Americans themselves do not have an answer. What is Donald Trump? Who exactly are his supporters?

In the past few days, the large American media companies have conducted many interviews with Trump supporters and have drawn many analyses. That Trump has a personality which provokes anger is merely one aspect. The most important reason for Trump gaining votes is that many Americans are extremely disappointed with the situation today: the increase in the income gap, lagging salaries, the lack of jobs, the decrease in the quality of life, the frightening debts to other countries, health insurance policies, and the surge of immigrants that directly lowers the quality of life of Americans (at least that is what they think …).

The disappointment felt by today’s society has led to its disappointment in politics. In the elections of past decades, every politician claimed that he or she would rebuild the American dream and make America a greater country. Nevertheless, after they are elected, again and again, they disappoint Americans more than ever. Many people have begun to realize that regardless of whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat, this country relies on, respects, and serves those who are in society’s top 1 percent.

They feel that Washington, the White House, and elitist politicians have tricked them.

What makes the matter worse is that they feel the current insistence on political correctness in U.S. society has reached a point of being abnormal. It is everywhere, and many people are already overwhelmed. They no longer want to be endlessly “generous,” “multicultural” or “caring.”

You have complaints as a society, and you cannot complain. You cannot complain about the immigrants stealing your opportunities, you cannot complain about Asian kids taking away a seat in an Ivy League university, you cannot complain about the high crime rates among African-Americans … Regardless of what you say, even if you are just simply telling the truth, you are chastised for being “politically incorrect.”

And now, there is a careless “big mouth” that says we have to build high walls on the border of Mexico, we have to exile all the illegal immigrants, we have to be tougher on China. “Being politically correct is this country’s big problem, I don't have to be politically correct,” he says.

And this person does not have any political background, unlike other candidates who are either senators or congressmen. Those Republican candidates, “we like none of them, and we do not want to choose any, they are the same.”

And this person is a successful businessman, so he will be able to revive the economy.

It is possible to imagine that many people have found an outlet for their suppressed anger, seeing Trump as their voice. Trump talks ruthlessly and makes stupid mistakes that we consider to be ignorant, but for his supporters, he expresses integrity that sharply contrasts with the deceitfulness of politicians. Trump appears to be one with those who come from a grassroots background. He is the careless Don Quixote.

What his supporters do not realize is that Trump’s “talk” is full of holes and cannot actually be effective.

Other than the large percentage of supporters who have “low-income” and a “low education,” there are also supporters who are not oblivious to Trump’s stupidity. Nevertheless, they still want to use Trump to fight against the depressing political correctness in today’s American society. This is Trump’s supporter at a rally hosted in a college. [Ed.: Please go to the original article to view the photograph.]

“The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive.”* Recently, there are many personal statements made by Trump supporters on the media, many of whom are from an upper-middle class background. What they have in common is that they are afraid of letting people around them know that they support Trump, and during interviews they request anonymity.

A young woman of Cuban background stated, “Political correctness is the birthplace of disastrous, un-American policies that will destroy the country in a death by a thousand cuts. But here comes Trump, the first person who didn’t even blink when the machine turns its sights on him. He didn’t just fight back. He chewed it up and spit it out.”

A 50-year-old college professor said, “I’m a liberal left college professor in the social sciences. I’m going to vote for Trump but I won’t tell hardly anybody. My main reason is anger at the two-party system and the horrible presidencies of Obama and Bush. But I’m also furious at political correctness on campus and in the media. I’m angry at forced diversity and constant, frequently unjustified complaints about racism/sexism/homophobia/lack of trans rights. I’m particularly angry at social justice warriors and my main reason to vote Trump is to see the looks on your faces when he wins. It’s not that I like Trump. It’s that I hate those who can’t stand him.”

A 48-year-old California scientist moved to San Francisco from the United Kingdom in 2000. He is a citizen now, and he voted for Obama. He is a closet Trump supporter, and he hasn’t told any of his friends or co-workers. “They would think of me as a meat-head if they knew.”

A 56-year-old casino supervisor commented that “in the Nevada election Trump won 46 percent of the Hispanic vote and the reason is because the legal Hispanic voters also have to compete with the illegal immigrants for jobs.”

A 29-year-old yoga instructor said that “it isn’t a vote for Trump, but rather a vote against the political establishment (which must be removed from office at any cost — even if it means electing a reality TV star for president). The stakes are too high. Hillary cannot win or the oligarchy will continue unabated. And please don’t publish my name, it would ruin the whole ‘progressive’ image and my girlfriend might kill me.”

A retired biomedical engineer commented that he believes that Clinton will continue the Wall Street-style march to oligarchy. “With her, the eventual demise of democracy will lead to a fascist plutocracy. It is going on right now, and it will continue to be slow, painful and inevitable. I believe that it is too late for a conventional cure. So, there is Trump. He is indeed a buffoon and a recipe for disaster. If he were to do half of the horrific things he says he would, he would be a catastrophe. He could be a blend of Hitler and Hirohito. That’s why I would vote for him. The last time we crossed paths with a Hitler and/or Hirohito, the country woke up and fought. And won! He might supply us with the shock we need in order to wake up and fight,” he said.

The 20-year-old Arab Muslim student said that “as a gay Muslim, the Republican Party has not been kind to me, to say the least. However, the Democrats almost arrogantly expect me to hand my vote to them because of who I am, which insults me. My parents are horrified at the thought of a Trump presidency. They say things like ‘Trump is going to round up all the Muslims and put them in camps.’ For all his bombastic remarks, Trump will not attack innocent Muslim countries. Ironically enough, he may be the best thing for moderate average Muslims.”

This handsome 18-year-old boy is in favor of Trump. [Ed.: Please go to the original article to view this photograph.]

A 52-year-old manager, who is “fairly well educated — master’s degrees from Harvard and the University of South Carolina, with an income in the upper 10 percent — says that not even his wife knows he supports Trump. “If elected, Trump would accomplish very little to none of his vacuous agenda … So what good could result? Perhaps more people would begin to realize that members of Congress, governors, mayors, and members of the state houses have the real power. That the framers of the Constitution created this wonderfully balanced system in which no one person holds the kind of power that Trump claims he could wield. That democracy is messy and frustrating. That change involves more hard work than just voting for somebody who says the right things.”

If Trump Is Selected, Will He Be Able to Defeat Clinton? If He Does, What Will America Be Like?

Because this article is already so long, I will just summarize this section.

The honest answer is that I do not know if he can defeat Hillary; no one knows the result. In crazy times like today, the traditional wisdom may no longer be useful. Especially after reading the interviews with Trump’s supporters, I began to realize that the possibility is very great. Clinton herself has critical flaws, such as acting logically without any emotion, and she does not have much affinity with voters, which is Trump’s greatest advantage.

Nevertheless, even if Trump is elected, America will not disintegrate because it is controlled by the tripartite system. The American president does not have enough power to be a ruthless tyrant. Considering that both Democrats and Republicans dislike him, regardless of which party ends up taking over Congress, in the future, Trump will experience resistance from various directions.

The most ideal situation is that after Trump gets nominated, he will correct his nonsense during the general election. In the past, during every presidential election, candidates have used harsh words to attract attention; but after he is elected, those words are typically left behind and the president becomes much more responsible.

In fact, Trump’s stance in many political issues is undefined, and he has frequently changed his position the next day; such a situation has occurred frequently during recent months.

Kevin Spacey, who starred as the presidential character Frank Underwood in the political drama “House of Cards,” even made fun of Trump in a talk show for being completely ignorant of politics because Trump claimed that he learned about politics through TV shows.

In the worst case scenario, Trump will arouse the animosity of many people after he gets elected because he is so ruthless and pompous with respect to diplomatic relationships, and he will exacerbate the conflicts between the United States and China or other countries.

In the world today, extreme right-wing parties are rising in power by appealing to populism and nationalism. China’s nationalistic spirit right now is also at its height. Trump’s appearance on the scene can be viewed as a way that America is supporting this common global trend. Ideologies that are open, forgiving and multicultural are increasingly the subject of controversy and derision, and are losing support. Populism, xenophobia, hard-willed nationalism, tyranny are taking over.

Perhaps, the good days will soon be over.

*Editor's note: Although correctly translated, this quote could not be independently verified.


为什么这么多人支持特朗普?他真的能统治美国吗? (2016-03-09 10:50:22)
标签: 杂谈

对于特朗普大家都已经非常熟悉,所以今天就不介绍他了,着重讲这几个方面:
1、目前美国社会对特朗普的反应。
2、特朗普是不是真的能当选共和党的总统候选人?共和党有没有什么办法狙击他?
3、既然主流媒体和公众都讨厌特朗普,为什么他能够拿到这么多的选票?支持特朗普的都是什么样的人?
4、如果特朗普真的当选,美国会变成什么样子?
四个部分都有小标题,大家可以挑自己感兴趣的部分跳着看。

1、目前美国社会对特朗普的反应
上周的超级星期二,特朗普拿下7个州,这是一个分水岭的时间点。在那之前,很多人并没有太把特朗普当回事,即使是他一再在民调中领先,媒体都还分析说,民调和实际的选举是两码事,支持特朗普的人对投票的积极性很低,不会出来给他投票。
然而实际情况呢?超级星期二共和党这边一共有800万人参加投票,而民主党只有550万人投票。反观2008年的超级星期二,共和党只有500万,民主党是800万,正好倒过来。特朗普炸出了一大波本来不爱投票的支持者,动员能力惊人。
从那天之后,所有人都意识到不能再把特朗普当成一个笑话了,他获胜的可能性正在变得越来越大。
超级星期二后,Google 的数据编辑发推特说,Google 上“怎么移民到加拿大” (How can I move to Canada) 的搜索次数在四个小时内猛增3.5倍。这件事迅速被各大媒体报道,此后整个星期的搜索量更是增长了10倍。

调皮的多伦多市议会议长发了一条推特,对想移民的美国人民表示欢迎,同时附上了加拿大政府网站上关于移民内容的网页,这条推特被转发了近5万次。

不过这件事当成段子看看就好,第一,历届美国总统选举时“怎么移民到加拿大”的搜索都会出现增长,这更多的只是一种失望情绪的表达;第二,媒体大量报道后很多人可能只是出于好奇去搜索。
共和党的大佬们都急了,上届候选人罗姆尼和上上届候选人马侃都发表公开讲话痛批特朗普,呼吁民众不要给他投票;上周三,70多位位居高职的共和党官员联名签署公开信,表示如果特朗普真的成为共和党候选人,宁可投票给希拉里(或山德斯)。
针对特朗普宣称要用酷刑折磨乃至处死恐怖分子以及他们的家人(违法且违背国际公约),美国军方已经退休的元老也都出来说,如果特朗普当选,军队可能会违抗他的指令。
曾经当过几任纽约市长的亿万富翁布隆伯格今天发表声明说他不会以独立候选人身份参加总统竞选。布隆伯格声望很高,在纽约掌权时政绩闪亮,每一届总统选举都有很多人猜测和鼓励布隆伯格参选,但他从来没有参选过。

今年他本来非常想参选,连竞选广告都已经拍好了。但今天他表示,自己还是决定放弃,因为经过数据模型推演,假如特朗普真的成为共和党候选人,他自己参选势必分流民主党候选人(不管是希拉里还是山德斯)的选票,客观上可能反而给特朗普助攻,帮助后者当选。他说这是自己的良心无法接受的结果。

下一阶段对选情至关重要的是3月15日投票的佛罗里达州,目前共和党各派政治势力已经投下1000多万美元,在佛罗里达预定了大量的电视时段播放攻击他的电视广告。
然而,这一切能不能起效还很难说,甚至还可能激发特朗普的死忠支持者们同仇敌忾的决心,最后适得其反……
2、特朗普是不是真的能当选共和党的总统候选人?共和党有没有什么办法狙击他?

这里有两个关键的数字:1237和8。我们一个一个说。
美国的总统选举是世界上最复杂、耗时最长的选举,很多规则连普通美国人都搞不清楚。两个党的规则不一样,各州的规则又不一样。例外的情况我就不说了,这里只说最基本的规则。
现在进行的是各州的初选,目的是为了选出两党各自的候选人,这个过程因为人人可以投票,而且一个州一个州投过去,所以比较好看。然后这两个人再在11月8日最后对决,获胜者成为总统。
以共和党为例,最后的总统候选人将会在今年7月18日在克利夫兰举行的共和党全国代表大会上选出。参加这个大会的一共有2472人,每人一票,来自全国各州,每个州都分配一定名额。要成为共和党的候选人,必须拿下半数以上,也就是1237票。
这是2012年共和党全国代表大会的现场。

但是呢,一般来说,这个选举只是走走过场,因为参加投票的人是没有办法按照自己的喜好来投票的,只能按照自己所在州的初选结果(也就是现在正在进行的部分)来分配。
怎么分配呢?有些州实行按比例分配。比如说弗吉尼亚州,一共有49个名额,这49票就按照初选的得票数按比例进行分配,特朗普因为拿下了34.7%选票,所以得到了49x34.7%=17票,其他四个候选人按比例分别得到16、8、5和3票。
还有一些州实行的则是“赢家通吃”规则(winner takes all),在这个州的初选中得到选票最多的候选人,就独占这个州所有的票数。比如说南卡罗来纳州有50张票,因为特朗普得票率最高,所以50票全部归他一个人,别人一张票都没有。

下图深绿色的州实行赢家通吃。这里还有很多复杂的情况,有些州只是部分实行赢家通吃,我不展开了。

把每个候选人在各个州得到的票加在一起,就是他们在全国代表大会上最后的得票数。也就是说其实在全国代表大会召开之前,谁是候选人就已经定了下来。
现在共和党要做的第一件事,就是尽可能地阻止特朗普在各个州的势头,争取让他最后拿到的票不超过1237张。
在目前已经结束的各州初选中,特朗普一共拿到了384张票,第二名克鲁兹是300票,其他两人分别是151票和37票。
如果其他候选人最后拿到过半数的1237票,那么他成为共和党候选人,特朗普出局,这是共和党建制派最理想的结局。
如果没有人拿到1237票,那么就进行第二轮投票。这个时候参加全国代表大会的人就可以按照自己的意愿投票了,不必再受初选结果的约束。所以现在共和党内部要做的,就是让尽可能多的反对特朗普的人去参加这个大会,这样他们在第二轮就可以把特朗普选下去。
最糟糕的情况,特朗普拿到了1237票,共和党仍然有办法。因为他们的党章里,鸡贼地增加了这样一条规则:那就是候选人必须至少在8个州拿到绝对多数的票(基本上等同于必须要拿下8个赢家通吃州)。而且,这个规则是允许随时修改的……假设特朗普拿下8个赢家通吃州,共和党完全可以把门槛提高到9个州……
还有一个好消息是,有些州实行开放式选举,即使不是共和党员也能参加共和党的投票,特朗普很大一部分选票都是来自共和党外的独立选民。而在还没有举行投票的州里,许多都实行闭门式选举,只有共和党员才能投票,估计特朗普的势头会受到影响。

这样分析下来,特朗普要成为共和党的候选人,还是比较困难的。但是,共和党也不敢轻易乱来,如果真的走到要修改规则限制特朗普那一步,引起群众强烈反弹,局面很难收拾。据说现在共和党已经开始部署在全国代表大会的防暴力量,怕万一出现暴动。就算不出现暴动,民心也必将四分五裂,共和党以后也难以为继了。
接下来最重要的日子是3月15日,这一天有4个实行赢家通吃的人口大州举行初选,其中光是佛罗里达就有99张票,在各州中仅次于加州,相当于三四个其他的小州。这一天之后,局势基本就能明朗了。
3、既然主流媒体和公众都非常讨厌特朗普,那为什么他能够拿到这么多的选票?支持特朗普的都是什么样的人?

这个问题不光其他国家的人关心,很多美国人自己也看不懂,特朗普凭什么啊?到底都是谁在支持他啊?
过去几天,全美各大媒体都在连篇累牍地作分析,以及采访特朗普的支持者。
特朗普本人极富煽动性的人格魅力只是一个方面,最重要的原因,是很多美国人对现状非常失望:收入差距拉大,薪水增长停滞,好工作难找,生活指数下降,对中国和其他国家的高额贸易赤字,医保方案烂成一团糟,移民大量涌入降低了生活质量(至少他们认为如此)……
对现状的失望,带来了对政治的失望。在过去几十年,每一次选举政客们都许诺要重振美国梦,塑造一个更伟大的国家,然而他们上台之后无一例外地让人民更加失望。很多人突然开始意识到,原来不管是民主党还是共和党上台,这个国家所依赖所仰仗所服务的,都是那些占据社会阶层最顶端的1%。
他们感觉到自己被华盛顿和白宫,被这个国家的政治精英们骗了。
让情况雪上加霜的是,这些年美国社会苛求政治正确的压力风气已经到了变态的极端,无处不在,很多人其实都已经不堪重负了。他们不再愿意去无休止地“宽容”、“多元”和“爱”。
你对社会不满吧,可是你还不能抱怨,不能抱怨移民抢了你的饭碗,不能抱怨亚裔小孩抢走了名校的名额,不能抱怨黑人引起的高犯罪率……不管说什么,哪怕只是在陈述事实,都会被扣上政治不正确的大帽子来批斗。
这个时候,突然有个无所顾忌的大嘴巴跳出来放炮,说,我们要在墨西哥边境建高墙不让他们进来,我们要把非法移民都驱逐出去,我们要对中国态度强硬一点……
“政治正确是这个国家的大问题,我没有时间去政治正确。”
而且这个人还没有什么政治背景,不像别的候选人,不是州长就是参议员——共和党的那些候选人,“我们一个也不喜欢,一个也不想选,他们都是一伙的”。
而且这个人还是成功的商人,他一定有办法重振经济……
可想而知,很多人郁积的不满情绪突然找到了一个喷发口,他们把特朗普当成了自己的代言人。他口无遮拦大放嘴炮,他所犯的低级错误,在我们看来是愚蠢至极,但在他的支持者看来,恰恰说明他的真诚、说明他没有心机,和那些油滑的政客形成了鲜明的对比,说明他是和底层人民站在一起的的草根。他就是那个冲撞风车的圣堂吉诃德。
他们没有意识到的是,特朗普那些嘴炮政策,通常都是逞一时之快,充满漏洞,基本上没有实际操作的可能性。
除了很大一部分“收入低”和“受教育程度低”的人之外,还有很多投票选他的人,其实并不是不知道他的愚蠢。但他们仍然希望能够借助特朗普打破美国社会现在压抑的政治正确氛围。
这是特朗普支持者在大学里的集会现场。
“全球变暖这个概念是中国人编出来的骗局,为了让美国的制造业失去竞争力。”
这几天媒体上有很多特朗普支持者的自述,很多都是中上阶层,他们的共同特点是都不敢告诉身边的人自己支持特朗普,接受采访时都要求匿名。
一个年轻的古巴裔女性说,“现在美国的情况是,左派已经把持了整个社会,只要稍微说点政治不正确的话,就会被无情地碾压。政治正确是一切灾难政策的起源,最后会让美国碎尸万片。而特朗普不仅仅是回击,他把这一切都生吞活剥了。”
一个50岁的大学教授说,“我是一个自由左派,但我还是会选特朗普,虽然我不会告诉任何人。主要的原因是我对现有两党体制的愤怒,以及奥巴马和布什糟糕的执政。我也对现在学校里和媒体上的政治正确非常愤怒。我愤怒,因为那些强迫的多元文化,那些无处不在又师出无名的对种族主义、性别歧视、恐同等等的抱怨。我尤其对那些社会正义感爆棚的骑士们感到愤怒。我投票给特朗普的主要原因是,想看看特朗普赢的时候他们脸上的表情。并不是说我喜欢特朗普,我只是讨厌那些无法忍受他的人。”
加州一个48岁的科学家说,自己在2000年从英国移民而来,上次选举投了奥巴马的票,但是因为反感激进的伊斯兰分子,所以现在变成了一个藏在柜子里的特朗普支持者,“我还没有告诉我的任何朋友和同事,如果他们知道的话会认为我是个白痴。”
一个56岁的赌场工作人员说,在内华达特朗普在拉美裔中拿下了46%的选票,因为这些合法的拉美移民同样害怕非法移民来抢工作。
这个18岁的小帅哥支持特朗普。
一个29岁的瑜伽教练说,“我不是在给特朗普投票,我只是在对现有的政治体系投反对票,我们必须把他们清除出去,即使代价是选一个真人秀电视明星当总统。绝对不能让希拉里赢。不要登我的名字,这会影响我的形象,我的女朋友会杀了我。”
一个退休的生物工程师说,“绝对不能让希拉里赢,她会继续以华尔街的风格向寡头政治迈进,最后摧毁民主体制,把美国变成一个法西斯的柏拉图理想国,这一切已经在发生了。特朗普就是解药,我知道他是个小丑,他说过的话只要做到一半就会变成灾难,他就是希特勒和裕仁天皇的合体。但这正是我会选他的原因,这个国家会因为他而受到刺激,最终苏醒过来。”
一个20岁的阿拉伯穆斯林同性恋学生说,“共和党对我这样的人并不好(移民、穆斯林、同性恋),可是民主党呢?他们仅仅因为我的身份,就傲慢地想当然地觉得我会把票投给他们,这是对我的侮辱。我的父母都被特朗普对穆斯林的态度吓坏了,但其实他不会攻击我们这样的温和派穆斯林,他对我们来说其实是最好的选择。”
这个18岁的小帅哥同样支持特朗普。这个18岁的小帅哥同样支持特朗普。
一个52岁的经理说,自己的学历很高,哈佛和南卡罗来纳大学的硕士,收入排全社会的前10%。连他妻子都不知道他支持特朗普。他说自己相信特朗普会一事无成,但还是会选他,因为这样一来美国人民就会意识到美国体制的美妙,会看到议员们对总统的制约作用,就会意识到改变世界不仅仅只是选某个言辞动听的候选人,而是需要更努力的工作……(匪夷所思)。
4、如果特朗普真的成为共和党的候选人,他能打败希拉里吗?如果他真的当选总统,美国会变成什么样子?

鉴于这篇文章已经非常长,我长话短说,简单说几句。
诚实的答案是,我不知道他是不是能打败希拉里,没有人知道。在这样一个疯狂的时代,传统的智慧已然不管用了。尤其是在看了那些特朗普支持者们的话后,我开始觉得,可能性非常之大。希拉里本身有致命的弱点,比如只走脑不走心,没有太多的亲和力,而这恰恰是特朗普最大的优势。
不过,即使他当选,美国也不会乱成一团,因为有三权分立体制的制约,美国总统的权力其实并没有那么大,不可能肆意胡来。考虑到共和党和民主党一致反对他,不管哪个党掌控国会,未来他应该在很多方面都备受掣肘。
最理想的情况是,特朗普上台后会修正自己竞选时的胡言乱语。以前历次总统竞选都是如此,候选人在选举的时候为了博眼球通常会放狠话,但当选后那些狠话就都抛在脑后了,会变得务实很多。
而且其实特朗普在很多政见上都是摇摆的,往往第二天就改了立场,在过去几个月这种情况出现过很多次。
之前在《纸牌屋》里演下木总统的凯文·斯佩西上脱口秀时,也嘲笑过特朗普对政策一无所知,因为特朗普曾经声称自己通过看电视来了解外交政策。


糟糕的情况是,特朗普上台后四处树敌,因为他在外交上非常极端和嚣张,势必会加剧美国和包括中国在内的其他国家之间的对抗。
现在世界很多国家极端右翼势力都在迅速崛起,有些甚至通过迎合民粹和民族主义上了台,包括现在中国的民族主义情绪也是高涨。而特朗普的出现,可以看成是美国对这样的世界潮流的一个呼应。开放、包容、多元的理念会更多地遭受质疑和嘲笑甚至被抛弃,民粹、仇外、铁血民族主义和强人政治将会横行。
也许,好日子快结束了。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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