Trump Overtakes Clinton in Presidential Race. Will the Convention Help the Democratic Candidate?
Although the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia was far more spectacular than the same event organized by Republicans in Cleveland, it is difficult to say if it has improved Hillary Clinton’s chances in her duel with Donald Trump.
Not only did all of the Democratic leaders come to Philadelphia, but also a whole group of celebrities including Sarah Silverman, Paul Simon, Stephen Colbert (the most popular comedian), Bryan Cranston from “Breaking Bad,” Alicia Keys, Katy Perry, Cyndi Lauper, Chloë Grace Mortez, Snoop Dogg, Lady Gaga, Lenny Kravitz and DJ Jazzy Jeff, who performed during Thursday’s concert.
Hillary was also backed by the best American political orators. The usually magniloquent Bill Clinton said nothing about his achievements, but devoted his entire speech to listing his wife’s achievements. Barack Obama claimed that Hillary was more qualified for the presidency than he or Bill was, and he later declared, “Anyone who threatens American values, whether fascists or communists or jihadists or homegrown demagogues, will always fail in the end.”
The speeches were calculated to gain more votes for the Democratic candidate from ordinary Americans. Bill and Barack have been able to reach them, but Hillary has not. Trump bases his campaign on fear and frustration among voters; he threatens them with a vision of the United States’ demise. Hillary Clinton cites positive economic data and promises to improve the current government’s political agenda. And that is why she is losing to the billionaire.
Assurances that unemployment and inflation are decreasing contradict the feelings of common people, especially the old and poorly educated who have not adjusted to a post-industrial economy. Nothing annoys the voters more than a politician’s declaration that there is prosperity in the country and that things are going to be even better when, viewed from the other side, voters cannot afford to buy a new car (while their neighbor has already changed two cars).
The FSB Supports Trump*
Just before the beginning of the convention, Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned from her position. Emails stolen from Democratic Party accounts were published on the internet by hackers who the FBI claimed worked for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. The theft forced Schultz to step down. These emails proved that the Democratic leaders had been trying to cut off Bernie Sanders’ campaign with dirty tricks.
Moscow is trying to influence the 2016 U.S. election because Trump does not hide his fondness for Putin. In one of the most recent interviews, the Republican candidate asserted that he would not protect the Baltic States from a Russian invasion if they “did not pay their bills.” Trump also said, “Oh, I would love to have a good relationship where Russia and I, instead of, and us, and the U.S., instead of fighting each other we got along. It would be wonderful if we had good relationships with Russia so that we don’t have to go through all of the drama.”
After accepting the Democratic presidential nomination, the first American woman in history to do so, Clinton also assured listeners that she was proud to stand by our NATO allies against any threat they face, including Russia, and said that the U.S. was stronger when it worked with its allies. She also mentioned that according to Trump the military was a disaster, and she remarked that such statements not only jeopardized U.S. soldiers but were also rude to those soldiers who were putting themselves in danger on behalf of the United States.
Meanwhile, when Russia’s influence and the Democratic National Committee’s outrage was exposed, the billionaire blundered by saying, “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” In other words, Trump encouraged this malevolent country to continue influencing the 2016 elections. It caused no harm to his poll results.
Everything in Latinos’ Hands
According to the newest polls, Trump has posted a one to seven-point lead over Clinton. Admittedly, his poll numbers were improved by the Republican National Convention and analysts have not yet estimated the effect the Democratic National Convention will have on Clinton’s poll numbers. Despite these facts, the billionaire has a greater chance at the White House than his opponents assumed.
Analysts held the opinion that Trump would be defeated because of ethnic changes in the United States. The number of Latinos is growing, yet the Republican candidate insulted them at the beginning of his campaign and has not stopped talking about building a great wall on the border with Mexico, deporting 11 million illegal immigrants and abrogating the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees citizenship for everybody who was born or naturalized in the United States. Photos of the billionaire eating a taco from one of his Trump Grill restaurants have not helped endear him to voters.
On the other hand, the number of white voters, whose support is crucial to Trump’s victory, is decreasing. In 1980, Ronald Regan beat Jimmy Carter by almost 8.5 percentage points, gaining 56 percent of white voters. Four years ago, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote, but still failed to be elected.
However, the number of Latinos is only growing in a few Democratic states, such as New York or California, where the billionaire does not stand a chance, and also in the Republican state of Texas, where Trump is very likely to win. “Violet” states, such as Nevada, Colorado or Florida, may support both Republicans and Democrats.
One great hope for Trump is the “Rust Belt,” where there are fewer Latinos but far more white laborers, who always support Trump. Currently, Latino voters comprise 11.3 percent of the country’s electorate (and 16 percent of its population), but in Ohio, which is very important among the swing states, the Latinos comprise 2.3 percent of the state’s population (compared to New Mexico, where Latinos comprise 40 percent of its population). In the swing states of Wisconsin and Iowa, this percentage is respectively 3.6 percent and 2.9 percent.
Trump may get good results in industrial regions because he only needs the support of the white upper class to gain necessary electoral votes. Romney was defeated there by a small number of votes because he objected to the General Motors Chapter 11 reorganization and because he claimed that the poorest 47 percent of Americans are freeloaders and deadbeats.
From the other side, the billionaire from New York City is promising to revoke international free trade bills, which have been causing the lack of jobs in the U.S., and has vowed to cut Social Security. In other words, he is more popular among the U.S proletariat than Romney was. This two-level election process is propitious for Trump, and Democrats on both coasts could wake up on Nov. 9 with a president who is, to say the least, an oddity.
*Editor’s note: The FSB is the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation.
Not only did all of the Democratic leaders come to Philadelphia, but also a whole group of celebrities including Sarah Silverman, Paul Simon, Stephen Colbert (the most popular comedian), Bryan Cranston from “Breaking Bad,” Alicia Keys, Katy Perry, Cyndi Lauper, Chloë Grace Mortez, Snoop Dogg, Lady Gaga, Lenny Kravitz and DJ Jazzy Jeff, who performed during Thursday’s concert.
Hillary was also backed by the best American political orators. The usually magniloquent Bill Clinton said nothing about his achievements, but devoted his entire speech to listing his wife’s achievements. Barack Obama claimed that Hillary was more qualified for the presidency than he or Bill was, and he later declared, “Anyone who threatens American values, whether fascists or communists or jihadists or homegrown demagogues, will always fail in the end.”
The speeches were calculated to gain more votes for the Democratic candidate from ordinary Americans. Bill and Barack have been able to reach them, but Hillary has not. Trump bases his campaign on fear and frustration among voters; he threatens them with a vision of the United States’ demise. Hillary Clinton cites positive economic data and promises to improve the current government’s political agenda. And that is why she is losing to the billionaire.
Assurances that unemployment and inflation are decreasing contradict the feelings of common people, especially the old and poorly educated who have not adjusted to a post-industrial economy. Nothing annoys the voters more than a politician’s declaration that there is prosperity in the country and that things are going to be even better when, viewed from the other side, voters cannot afford to buy a new car (while their neighbor has already changed two cars).
The FSB Supports Trump*
Just before the beginning of the convention, Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned from her position. Emails stolen from Democratic Party accounts were published on the internet by hackers who the FBI claimed worked for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. The theft forced Schultz to step down. These emails proved that the Democratic leaders had been trying to cut off Bernie Sanders’ campaign with dirty tricks.
Moscow is trying to influence the 2016 U.S. election because Trump does not hide his fondness for Putin. In one of the most recent interviews, the Republican candidate asserted that he would not protect the Baltic States from a Russian invasion if they “did not pay their bills.” Trump also said, “Oh, I would love to have a good relationship where Russia and I, instead of, and us, and the U.S., instead of fighting each other we got along. It would be wonderful if we had good relationships with Russia so that we don’t have to go through all of the drama.”
After accepting the Democratic presidential nomination, the first American woman in history to do so, Clinton also assured listeners that she was proud to stand by our NATO allies against any threat they face, including Russia, and said that the U.S. was stronger when it worked with its allies. She also mentioned that according to Trump the military was a disaster, and she remarked that such statements not only jeopardized U.S. soldiers but were also rude to those soldiers who were putting themselves in danger on behalf of the United States.
Meanwhile, when Russia’s influence and the Democratic National Committee’s outrage was exposed, the billionaire blundered by saying, “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” In other words, Trump encouraged this malevolent country to continue influencing the 2016 elections. It caused no harm to his poll results.
Everything in Latinos’ Hands
According to the newest polls, Trump has posted a one to seven-point lead over Clinton. Admittedly, his poll numbers were improved by the Republican National Convention and analysts have not yet estimated the effect the Democratic National Convention will have on Clinton’s poll numbers. Despite these facts, the billionaire has a greater chance at the White House than his opponents assumed.
Analysts held the opinion that Trump would be defeated because of ethnic changes in the United States. The number of Latinos is growing, yet the Republican candidate insulted them at the beginning of his campaign and has not stopped talking about building a great wall on the border with Mexico, deporting 11 million illegal immigrants and abrogating the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees citizenship for everybody who was born or naturalized in the United States. Photos of the billionaire eating a taco from one of his Trump Grill restaurants have not helped endear him to voters.
On the other hand, the number of white voters, whose support is crucial to Trump’s victory, is decreasing. In 1980, Ronald Regan beat Jimmy Carter by almost 8.5 percentage points, gaining 56 percent of white voters. Four years ago, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote, but still failed to be elected.
However, the number of Latinos is only growing in a few Democratic states, such as New York or California, where the billionaire does not stand a chance, and also in the Republican state of Texas, where Trump is very likely to win. “Violet” states, such as Nevada, Colorado or Florida, may support both Republicans and Democrats.
One great hope for Trump is the “Rust Belt,” where there are fewer Latinos but far more white laborers, who always support Trump. Currently, Latino voters comprise 11.3 percent of the country’s electorate (and 16 percent of its population), but in Ohio, which is very important among the swing states, the Latinos comprise 2.3 percent of the state’s population (compared to New Mexico, where Latinos comprise 40 percent of its population). In the swing states of Wisconsin and Iowa, this percentage is respectively 3.6 percent and 2.9 percent.
Trump may get good results in industrial regions because he only needs the support of the white upper class to gain necessary electoral votes. Romney was defeated there by a small number of votes because he objected to the General Motors Chapter 11 reorganization and because he claimed that the poorest 47 percent of Americans are freeloaders and deadbeats.
From the other side, the billionaire from New York City is promising to revoke international free trade bills, which have been causing the lack of jobs in the U.S., and has vowed to cut Social Security. In other words, he is more popular among the U.S proletariat than Romney was. This two-level election process is propitious for Trump, and Democrats on both coasts could wake up on Nov. 9 with a president who is, to say the least, an oddity.
*Editor’s note: The FSB is the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation.
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