Abe’s Special Gifts Struggle To Satisfy Trump

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 11 Feb 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Winnie Xiao. Edited by Christina Virkus.
Among Uncle Sam’s allies, Japan is the eager businessman. On Feb. 9, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe rushed to the United States to meet with Trump. If Abe’s recent meeting with Trump was to test the bottom line, then this meeting is more like negotiating a business.

Abe apparently brought support for the U.S. high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects and investments that would help create 700,000 jobs in the United States. These are currently verbal “gifts” that will be exchanged for America’s continued military support of Japan and a reduction of the price Trump will ask Japan to pay.

According to CNN, Japan was desperately seeking a promise from Trump. What kind of promise? A promise of military and economy. Trump certainly does not want to abandon a U.S. alliance with Japan, especially considering how America’s status in Asia has been sustained through its reliance on Japan. Japan is also able to suppress China, so Trump recently ordered his secretary of defense to speak to Japan on this subject. The United States still values its relationship with Asian countries and has promised Japan that it will continue its military base there.

Abe hopes the Japan-U.S. alliance will be “stronger and firmer,” but this has to be supported with money. Abe clearly understands the limited effects of the “reassurance” tranquilizer Trump has given, and that the number of doses is still controlled by the United States. The primary goal of Trump’s “America First” is to create more employment opportunities and additional markets for U.S. goods around the world.

The United States has made it clear that it will not quickly accept Japan’s “IOU payment.” This year, the Pentagon is set to spend around $5.5 billion on U.S. military bases in Japan. Japan will spend $1.8 billion on maintenance for the bases and still needs to pay an additional $4 billion to cover other expenses, including compensation to the communities of the bases and for the relocation of the American military. Though this would seem to be enough, the U.S. still feels like it is not, because American soldiers are risking their lives to “watch the gates” for Japan.

Trump’s calculations are very meticulous. He is focused on the U.S.’s $68.9 billion (2016) trade deficit with Japan. According to American officials, Trump’s criticism of the unfair trade between Japanese and American automobiles will become an important political topic. Though Japan has lowered its automobile customs taxes to nearly zero, the U.S. still insists that Japan’s safety standards create an invisible barrier. In addition, the U.S. is also unsatisfied with Japan’s customs taxes for the agriculture industry.

Japan is an island country that lacks a military and market development. In this current era, where consumers are kings, the size of the market decides the weight of one’s words. The reason Trump abandoned the TPP was not to hamper international trade, but to expand America’s own market and settle things with its “brothers,” like Japan. There are no free lunches in the world, and America’s assistance does not come without a price.

The relationship between Japan and the United States seems very solid, but in the end it is profit that businessmen care about. Sometimes, capitalism is very kind and brotherly; at other times, it will turn its back and use you. At the end of the Hollywood film, “Killing Them Softly,” the main character muffled, “America's not a country. It's just a business. Now pay me.”


社评:安倍的“大礼白条”难以满足特朗普

在山姆大叔所有的盟友中,日本更像是个急着成交的商人。2月9日,安倍赶往美国与特朗普会谈。如果说前些日子着急忙慌地见特朗普是想先探个底价,那安倍这一次就更像是去谈桩买卖。
  据说安倍带了支持美国高铁等基础建设的项目、帮助美国增加70万就业岗位的一揽子投资协议。这些目前只能是嘴上说说的“大礼”将用来换取美国对日本的安全支持,同时缓解特朗普对日本的要价。
  美国CNN的报道称,忧心如焚的日本试图寻求特朗普的保证。保证什么?一是军事,二是经济。特朗普当然不会不要日本这个盟友,毕竟美国的亚洲地位,还要靠日本来帮衬。要制衡中国,也少不了日本的作用。这一点,前几天特朗普已经派他的防长跑了一趟,向日本交了个底——美国依然看重它与亚洲盟友的关系,并承诺保卫日本,继续驻军。
  安倍希望日美同盟会“更强大、更牢固”,但这是要靠金钱来支撑的。安倍看得清楚,特朗普给的“定心丸”药力有限,况且药量也控制在美国手里。眼下特朗普最急着要做的事情是“美国优先”,是制造业回流,是增加更多就业,是在全球为美国制造扩展更多的市场。
  美国方面传出的信息表明,并不会爽快接受日本的“白条买价”。五角大楼今年维持驻日美军的费用大约是55亿美元,日本要支付18亿美元来维持基地,此外至少还要支付40亿美元的相关费用,包括基地附近社区的补偿费用以及美军搬迁的费用。这看上去已经足够多,但这在美国看来还不够,美国大兵是在用鲜血与生命来为日本“看大门”啊。
  特朗普的账算得很细。他盯的是美日贸易689亿美元(2016年)的赤字。美国官员透露说,特朗普“批评”不公平的日美汽车贸易将成为重要议题。虽然日本已将汽车关税降到零,但美方仍坚持认为日本的安全标准是一种隐形壁垒。此外,美国对日本农产品市场的关税也很不满意。
  日本是个岛国,既没有战略纵深,也缺乏发展市场。岛国心态可以导致对周边警惕与恐惧,需要“傍大款”。而岛国狭小的经济圈则使日本天生具有会被牵制的软肋,再加上战后美日关系的从属性制度安排和日本对美国的依赖,被美国拿住也就没有什么奇怪的了。
  特朗普对安倍的“牛”,在很大程度上来自于美国市场的庞大。在这个消费为王的时代,市场的大小决定了话语权的分量。特朗普甩掉TPP,不是不要对外贸易,而是要借美国的市场来单练,要和日本这样的“亲兄弟”明算账。世界上没有免费的午餐,美国的车绝不能白搭。
  美日关系看上去很“铁”,但商人讲的是“利”,资本不会认这个“铁”。有的时候,资本也会很温柔,也会有一些兄弟般的关照,可转过身去一变,很可能就成了套着你的高利贷。好莱坞影片《温柔的杀戮》有这样一个结尾:在2009年奥巴马就职典礼的电视声音中,片中的主人翁闷闷地说:“美国不是一个国家,而是一桩生意,现在把钱给我。”
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