Asia Does Not Need External Balancing Measure

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 9 March 2017
by Xi Sun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jia Liu. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
Not long ago, the United States’ Asia Foundation released a report, titled “Asian Views on America’s Role in Asia: The Future of the Rebalance,” the purpose of which was to convince Trump to continue the “rebalance to Asia-Pacific” strategy. The study points out that many Asian countries think America’s “balancing” is targeting China. If that’s the case, how can they not find out what China, their rival, thinks? The author thinks that America’s “rebalance” strategy is “a bad move on the chess board” that harms others and does not benefit America itself, because America is not Asia’s balancer.

First, America is by no means an expert at “balancing.” Despite its claim of being the advocate of justice, it usually ends up being the meddler. In the early 1980s, to “balance” Iran after the Islamic Revolution, America began to cozy up to Iraq and support the country. But after the Iran-Iraq war, America turned to “balance” Iraq and ultimately waged the Gulf War and the Iraq War. Similarly, as it happened, to “balance” the Soviet Union after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, in the 1980s America actively supported Osama bin Laden in developing the Islamic “Holy War.” However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, America and Bin Laden turned on each other and became enemies. After 9/11, America launched the war in Afghanistan.

Clearly, America’s “balance” strategy has been swinging, never for peace or justice but purely for its own interests. Otherwise, America would have volunteered to go to Rwanda to “balance” Hutus’ willful massacre of millions of the ethnic minority Tutsi. Unfortunately, they didn’t go, because they “wouldn’t get up early when there is no benefit,” as the Chinese saying goes. In his farewell speech, Hamid Karzai, the former president of Afghanistan, expressed the criticism that the wars in his country could not end exactly because America did not want peace in the region.

Second, America has already lost its own balance. To continue its “balance” strategy would be unwise. The 2008 global financial crisis exposed the fact that the American economy had lost its balance and the 2016 presidential election revealed that American politics had also lost its balance. Additionally, the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the frequent occurrence of terrorist attacks are a significant sign that American society has lost its balance. America itself is like a “Buddha statue made of clay” and will struggle to survive the turbulent river in its passing. Continuing to play world police may be beyond its capabilities. Trump, new in office, seems to understand this. No wonder he asks Japan and South Korea to foot their own bills for American troops stationed there.

On the surface, Trump, who pledged “America First,” seems to have dropped the phrase “Asia-Pacific rebalance,” but we should never delude ourselves into thinking that America will leave Asia alone, because its interests in Asia are deep-rooted. There has been comment that the Trump version of “Asia-Pacific rebalance” might even be more aggressive than Obama’s. But we needn’t worry unduly; as we Chinese say, “We will send generals for your soldiers and sandbags for your floods.”

Last but not least, America’s intention to “balance” China is not justified and will backfire. Why “balance” China? The reason is no more than two-fold. On the one hand, some of China’s neighboring countries think that China, once strong, will bully them. On the other hand, America does not want China’s rise to threaten its position as the world leader. But, since time immemorial, the Chinese people, by nature, have never indulged in warfare down to the last soldier. We do not identify with the belief that a powerful nation must dominate, nor do we believe that the Thucydides Trap is inevitable. The diplomatic actions China took in recent years were essentially defensive counter-measures, which were provoked. Therefore, the seemingly valid reason for the need to “balance” China does not stand, and it is in fact the result of America’s persecutory delusions, hegemonism and Cold War mentality.

Looking back, U.S.-led NATO actively worked with Ukraine with the intention of “balancing” Russia, but in the end it only gave Russia an opportunity to annex and occupy Crimea. Therefore, if in the future America continues to try all sorts of attempts in Asia at “balancing” China, regardless of reality, then it may well turn out to be a historic moment for China to achieve its goal of unifying our motherland’s territory and rejuvenating our great Chinese nation.

Past experience and lessons from history have taught us that, to resolve regional conflicts or disagreement, violent intervention by external forces will most likely backfire, especially an external “balance” measure that serves only the purposes and interests of the “balancer.” Only self-balance from within Asia itself is the solution that is sustainable.

The author is a Chinese national and an independent commentator and writer, living in Singapore.


孙喜:亚洲无需外部平衡器

  不久前,美国的“亚洲基金会”发布一份研究报告,名为《亚洲对美国在亚洲角色的看法:再平衡的未来》,旨在说服特朗普继续推动“亚太再平衡”战略。该报告指出,不少亚洲国家认为美国“平衡”的主要对象应该是中国。既然如此,那岂能不听听“对手”中国的看法?笔者认为美国的 “再平衡” 战略是一步 “损人不利己” 的臭棋,因为美国并非亚洲的平衡器。

  首先,美国绝非“平衡”高手,虽标榜正义使者,却往往成为搅局者 。上世纪80年代初,为了“平衡”伊斯兰革命后的伊朗,美国开始拉拢和支持伊拉克。然而,两伊战争结束后,美国逐步转向“平衡”伊拉克,并最终发动了海湾战争和伊拉克战争。无独有偶,上世纪80年代,为了“平衡”入侵阿富汗后的苏联,美国积极支持本·拉登发展伊斯兰“圣战”组织。然而,苏联解体后,美国和本·拉登反目成仇,并在2001年“9·11”事件后,发动了阿富汗战争。

  可见,美国摇摆不定的“平衡”战略,向来不是为了和平或正义,而纯粹是为了一己私利。否则,美国当年就应该积极主动地去卢旺达“平衡”肆意屠杀百万少数族群图西族的胡图族,只可惜它“无利不起早”。阿富汗前总统卡尔扎伊在告别演讲中就谴责,是美国不希望和平才导致自己祖国长期的战争。

  其次,美国已经自我“失衡”,继续推行“平衡”战略不是明智之举。2008年的国际金融危机暴露了美国失衡的经济,2016年的美国总统大选暴露了美国失衡的政治,而贫富分化的加剧和恐怖袭击的频发,则是美国社会失衡的显著表现。美国自身已是“泥菩萨过河”,继续充当世界警察似乎心有余而力不足。对此,新上任的特朗普似乎心知肚明,难怪他要求日本和韩国为驻日韩美军埋单。

  虽然从表面上看,誓言“美国优先”的特朗普似乎抛弃了“亚太再平衡”的字眼,但是我们绝不能幻想美国会放弃亚洲,因为它在亚洲的利益根深蒂固。甚至有评论称,特朗普版“亚太再平衡”的力度或超奥巴马。不过,我们也无需过度担心,正所谓“兵来将挡,水来土掩”。

  最后,美国意图“平衡”中国,师出无名,恐将弄巧成拙。为何要“平衡”中国?无非两方面原因。其一,部分周边国家认为中国强大了必然会欺负它们;其二,美国不希望中国的崛起威胁到它的全球领导地位。不过,自古以来中国人的血脉里就没有穷兵黩武的基因,我们不认同“国强必霸论”,也不认为必然无法逾越“修昔底德陷阱”。如果说中国外交在近年有所动作,基本上均属被逼无奈而采取的防御性反制措施。因此,必须“平衡”中国的理由似是而非,其实是被害臆想症、霸权主义和冷战思维在作祟。

  想当年,美国主导的北约积极拉拢乌克兰意图“平衡”俄罗斯,结果反而让俄罗斯借机收复了克里米亚。因此,如果美国未来依然不识时务地千方百计在亚洲“平衡”中国,也许反倒成为我们实现祖国领土统一和中华民族伟大复兴的一次历史机遇期。

  历史的经验教训告诉我们,对于化解区域冲突或矛盾,外部势力的非和平干预往往只会适得其反,更不要说是指望一个自私自利的外部“平衡器”了。亚洲区域的内部自平衡,才是长久可持续的解决之道。

(作者是旅居新加坡的中国籍独立时评作家)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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