Tremors on Wall Street

Published in El País
(Spain) on 7 February 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Madeleine Ramsey. Edited by Joel Horowitz.

 

 

The spectacular fall of the Dow Jones Industrial average on Monday, while not triggering a financial crisis, warns of the consequences of "Trumponomics."

Despite the Dow’s spectacular fall on Monday, which dropped 1,175 points, or 4.6 percent which dragged down the European Stock Exchange, the event should be analyzed with caution and without falling into the trap of prematurely triggering alarm bells. On Tuesday, when the Dow opened high, a preliminary analysis of the descent offered an explanation that dismissed this catastrophic temptation entirely.

Automatic sale orders played an important role in the falling stock prices as they are a mechanism that amplifies operations and masks the natural movement of the market.

The main reason for the restlessness of the stock exchange, as reflected in the decline from the previous week, is doubt about monetary policy, and specifically doubt raised by the rate hikes set by Janet Yellen. According to the feeling of one part of the market, improving growth and employment rates, together with Trump's economic policies, will enable a rise in inflation which will force the Federal Reserve to raise rates more quickly.

In the face of Monday's events, it must be made clear that we are not looking at a financial crisis; the basic conditions of the American and global economies are the best they have been in the last four years, and they do not therefore signify a systematic deterioration or collapse in the markets. There are neither economic nor, given abundant liquidity in all markets, financial reasons to fear an imminent financial crisis.

However, it is still a fact that, while Trump's economic policies favor the rejuvenation of the economy, his exchange rate policies favor the appearance of sporadic tremors in the financial climate. It is therefore necessary to pay attention to the course of the American economy. Although there is no reason for alarm, Trump's policies are pushing the economies of both the U.S. and the wider world toward a serious imbalance.


Convulsión en Wall Street
La caída espectacular del Dow Jones el lunes no justifica una alarma financiera, pero advierte sobre las consecuencias de la ‘Trumpeconomics’

A pesar su espectacularidad, la caída de Wall Street en la jornada del lunes (descendió 1.175 puntos, el 4,6%, y arrastró a las Bolsas europeas) debe ser analizada con prudencia y sin caer en la tentación de las alarmas prematuras. Un análisis preliminar del descenso —ayer martes, el Dow Jones abrió al alza— ofrece algunas explicaciones que descartan precisamente la tentación catastrófica. En el hundimiento de las cotizaciones desempeñaron un papel importante las órdenes de venta automática, un mecanismo que amplifica las operaciones y enmascara los movimientos naturales del mercado.

La razón principal de la inquietud bursátil, manifestada en caídas durante la semana anterior, está en las dudas sobre la política monetaria, más concretamente las que suscita la cadencia actual de la subida de tipos pautada por Yellen. Según el sentir de una parte del mercado, la mejora de las tasas de crecimiento y empleo, junto con la política económica de Trump, facilitará una subida de la inflación, lo cual obligaría a la Reserva Federal a subir los tipos con mayor celeridad.

Ante el episodio del lunes hay que dejar claro que no estamos ante un pánico financiero; que las condiciones básicas de la economía estadounidense y mundial son las mejores del último cuatrienio y, por lo tanto, no justifican un empeoramiento sistemático y profundo de los mercados. No hay razones económicas ni monetarias (hay abundante liquidez en todos los mercados) para temer una crisis bursátil.

Pero también es un hecho que la política económica de Trump está favoreciendo el recalentamiento de la economía y que su política de tipo de cambio favorece la aparición de convulsiones esporádicas en el ámbito financiero. Por ello es necesario prestar atención a la marcha de la economía estadounidense. Aunque no hay razones para la alarma, las políticas de Trump empujan a la economía de EE UU y a la economía global hacia agudos desequilibrios.
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