America’s Thoughtless Withdrawal from Iran Deal Causes Problems for the World

Published in Chunichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 10 May 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fatuma Muhamed. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
Against the urging of the international community, President Donald Trump announced America's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, a move which should very much be reconsidered, as it could very well aggravate the already chaotic state of affairs in the Middle East.

This move is, in part, a way to gain favor with the conservative base. But the result – withdrawal from the deal – also seems to be a way for Trump, who holds a grudge against former President Barack Obama, to dismantle the legacy of his predecessor. As always, Trump has acted thoughtlessly, without considering the gravity of the situation.

The nuclear deal was established by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (America, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and China), Germany and Iran. Following a conference, they decided on a framework that allows for Iran to continue nuclear development and retain possession of nuclear arms. Dissenters have criticized the deal for being too lax.

Certainly, allowing Iran these rights further reduces the policy of nuclear nonproliferation to a mere formality – we cannot deny that.

However, there is plenty of reason to assume that a breakdown in negotiations will result in Israel forcibly attempting to stop Iran through military action. Therefore, the nuclear resolution also represented a commitment to avoiding war.

How will North Korea respond to Trump's one-sided decision on a matter that affects multiple countries so seriously?

America's national security advisor and former U.N. representative John Bolton said the president's decision “sends North Korea a signal that we're not in these discussions with Kim Jong Un just to have a deal." But this move has only deepened distrust toward America.

Trump has often said he wants to wash his hands of the current state of affairs in the Middle East, but at the same time, he takes actions that only serve to fan the flames of the current situation.

Nevertheless, America's withdrawal from the deal simultaneously hurts Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's position while invigorating hard-line American conservatives.

Fortunately, Rouhani has demonstrated his intent to adhere to the nuclear deal. Some speculate that if Iran resumes nuclear development, its neighbors like Saudi Arabia will also begin nuclear development in response, creating a “nuclear domino effect.”

Iran wants to rebuild economic ties with Europe and America after sanctions are removed, but Trump has instead called for the harshest sanctions to be reimposed. European investments in Iran will unavoidably suffer as a result of such sanctions.

I hope the international community can cooperate in an effort to prevent Iran from being driven to resume nuclear development.




中東危機を封じ込めてきた力を捨てて、情勢混乱に拍車を掛けかねない決定である。トランプ米大統領が国際社会の反対を押し切り、イラン核合意からの離脱を発表した。再考を強く求める。

 イランと敵対するイスラエルへのトランプ氏の肩入れは、保守的な支持層の受け狙いもあるが、その行き着いた果てが合意離脱である。目の敵にするオバマ前大統領のレガシー(政治的遺産)つぶしでもある。ことの重大さに考えが及ばない相変わらずの浅はかな行動だ。

 米英仏中ロの国連安保理常任理事国とドイツ、それにイランの七カ国による協議の末にまとまった核合意は、イランが核兵器保有につながる開発能力や施設を保持することは容認した。反対派はこの点を手ぬるいと批判する。

 確かに、イランに許された同じ権利を主張する国が現れて、核不拡散体制の形骸化が進む可能性は否定はできない。

 それでも協議が決裂していたら、イスラエルが力ずくで阻止しようと核施設への軍事行動に出ることは十分想定された。合意は戦争を回避した意義を持つ。

 これほど重い多国間合意を一方的に覆したトランプ氏を、北朝鮮はどう受け止めただろうか。

 ボルトン米大統領補佐官(国家安全保障担当)は「米国は不十分な取引は受け入れないという(北朝鮮への)明快なメッセージでもある」と述べたが、対米不信を高じさせただけではないか。

 トランプ氏は中東情勢から手を引きたい意向をたびたび口にしながら、自ら危機をあおって裏腹の方向に事態を押しやろうとしている。そんな矛盾に気づいてもいないようだ。

 しかも、合意離脱はイランのロウハニ大統領ら改革派の立場を損ね、反米の保守強硬派を勢いづかせる。米国の利益にもならない。

 救いは、ロウハニ師が合意残留の意向を示したことだ。イランが核開発を再開すれば、イランと地域覇権を争うサウジアラビアが対抗して核開発に動く「核ドミノ」の事態も想定される。

 イランにすれば欧米の制裁解除を経済立て直しにつなげたいところだが、トランプ氏は「最高レベルの制裁」復活を表明した。制裁リスクを恐れて欧州などの対イラン投資が冷え込むのは避けられない。

 イランを核開発再開に追い込まないようにするために、国際社会は協力が求められている。
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