Trump and His ‘Trade Wall’

Published in Excélsior
(Mexico) on 7 June 2018
by Laura Coronado Contreras (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by William Mastick. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
The proverb says, “Promises cost nothing, it's the giving that will wipe you out.” In last week’s Twitter rant for “fair trade,” President Donald Trump justified the political, protectionist tariffs coming into effect in order to placate his supporters.

Can a ‘Trade Wall’ Really Be Built with Our Country?

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's own figures, in 2017, general trade between the United States and Mexico increased 6.3 percent, which means a commercial exchange of $557 billion. However, since his campaign, the U.S. president has criticized the approximately $71 billion imbalance tilted toward the Mexican economy, blaming our country for the trade deficit of his own.

Can trade be seen as a game where only some win and others always lose? Absolutely not.

In the 19th century, President James A. Garfield pointed out, “Commerce links all mankind in one common brotherhood of mutual dependence and interests,” and therefore trade balance, especially in an increasingly globalized world, cannot be understood without the risks of “patriotic” measures for the domestic market.

President Trump is falling into lockstep with the economic nationalism he promised: protection for domestic consumption, employment and training for local workers, and measures aimed at eliminating dependency on other regions. Even so, the price he will pay, in the medium − and long − term, in innovation and competitiveness compared to other markets will not be any less.

Although the premise of “Buy American” has been around since 1933 as President Herbert Hoover’s response to the Great Depression, current campaigns for Buy American, Hire American, and America First (taken up again by President Woodrow Wilson) suggest a strong setback for our American neighbors, who seek to isolate themselves from the rest of the world in matters of trade, energy and security, among many other areas.

Seneca said, “The fear of war is worse than war itself.” For Mexico to believe that its only trade partner can and should be the U.S. market, and that our growth wholly depends on its policies, is faulty. On the one hand, a large part of its production chains and consumer needs are covered by us and, on the other, exports from our country are becoming more diversified.

Businessman and writer E. Joseph Cossman defines obstacles as, “things a person sees when he takes his eyes off his goal,” and if Mexicans want to continue bolstering our commercial strengths, we must avoid political, commercial, and financial speculations that weaken us as a nation.

The next commercial threat from the current U.S. administration looms over the automotive sector since President Trump “will not rest until there are no Mercedes on Fifth Avenue.” This will undoubtedly affect the Mexican manufacturing sector, but also U.S. consumers and, of course, the re-election dreams of the current president.



Dice el proverbio que “el prometer no empobrece, el dar es lo que aniquila” y la semana pasada exclamando por “un comercio justo” en un tuit, el presidente Donald Trump “justificaba” la entrada en vigor de políticas arancelarias proteccionistas para darle “gusto” a sus electores.

¿Realmente puede construir un “muro” en materia comercial con nuestro país?

Según cifras del propio Departamento de Comercio de EU, en 2017, el comercio general entre EU y México aumentó 6.3%, lo que significa un intercambio comercial por 557 mil millones de dólares. No obstante, desde su campaña, el Presidente estadunidense criticaba el saldo favorable a la economía mexicana que ahora asciende aproximadamente a los 71 mil millones de dólares culpando a nuestro país del déficit comercial del suyo.

¿Puede verse el comercio como un juego en donde sólo unos ganan y otros siempre pierden? Rotundamente, no.

El presidente James A. Garfield, ya en el siglo XIX, señalaba que “el comercio une al mundo en una común hermandad de dependencia mutua y de intereses recíprocos” y, por lo tanto, la balanza comercial, y especialmente en un mundo cada vez más globalizado, no puede entenderse sin los riesgos de medidas “patrióticas” para el mercado interno.

El presidente Trump está cumpliendo al pie de la letra con el nacionalismo económico que prometió: protección al consumo interno, empleo y capacitación a los trabajadores locales y medidas tendientes a la eliminación de la dependencia con otras regiones. Sin embargo, el costo que pagará, en el mediano y largo plazo, en innovación y competitividad frente a otros mercados no será nada menor.

Aunque desde 1933 –como reacción a la Gran Depresión- con el presidente Hoover ya se mencionaba la premisa
de Buy American, en la actualidad, las medidas de Buy American, Hire American (Compra americano, contrata americano) y America First (América Primero, retomada del también presidente Woodrow Wilson) hablan de un fuerte retroceso para nuestros vecinos quienes pretenden aislarse del resto del mundo en materia comercial, energética y seguridad entre otras muchas áreas.

Séneca decía que “el temor a la guerra es peor que la guerra misma” y que México crea que su único mercado puede y debe ser el estadunidense y que nuestro crecimiento depende absolutamente de sus determinaciones es erróneo ya que, por un lado, gran parte de sus cadenas productivas y las necesidades de sus consumidores son cubiertas por nosotros y, por otro, las exportaciones de nuestro país cada vez son más diversificadas.

El empresario y escritor E. Joseph Cossman define a los obstáculos como “esas cosas que las personas ven cuando dejan de mirar sus metas” y si los mexicanos deseamos seguir potencializando nuestras fortalezas comerciales debemos evitar las especulaciones políticas, comerciales y monetarias que nos debilitan como nación.

La siguiente amenaza comercial de la actual administración estadunidense se cierne sobre el sector automotriz ya que el presidente Trump “no descansará hasta que no haya modelos Mercedes en la Quinta Avenida en Nueva York” lo que, indudablemente, afectará al sector manufacturero mexicano pero, además, a los consumidores estadunidenses y, por supuesto, los deseos reeleccionistas del actual mandatario.
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