Hot Nuclear War

Published in La Razón, Mexico
(Mexico) on 31 July 2018
by Nemer Naime (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nick Dauster. Edited by Nkem Okafor.
It is unlikely that the commander of a nuclear ship will someday say, “We’ll destroy the world,” and then have it happen. But, sincerely, the fact of THAT even being a possibility is enough to ask just what we are doing about nuclear arms. And what is being done? NOTHING.

The situation today is much worse than in the past. Far beyond Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump waking up with the desire to eat a mushroom cloud for breakfast, both countries have attack plans — the U.S. has an official protocol of striking first under specific circumstances — just to keep the numerical advantage over the enemy nation.

If you launch a first strike, or if you respond to the nuclear attack of someone else, the process should be speedy, since a delay could mean the complete annihilation of your nation or your ability to counter-attack. So, if one side were inclined to attack, or if it erroneously perceives an enemy threat, there would be sufficient motive to deal a mortal blow to an opponent before it can respond.

It is impossible not to reach a catastrophic conclusion if we bring together the statements of the ex-director of the Strategic Command, General Lee Butler, who warns that it is a “miracle the world has escaped the Cold War without nuclear disasters”; the frequency of potential “accidents” that could detonate an exterminating war; and the reduction in processes for launching a weapon — Russia specifically adopted remote controls in Moscow that circumvent the chain of command to launch missiles in Siberia in less than 20 seconds. If we take a rational approach, we should fervently pray that Trump and Putin are united by strong ties of corruption, that would make a threat of nuclear war less likely.

During the Cold War, the U.S. and Russia established controls and opened communication after the Cuban missile crisis to ensure that a moment of stupidity or misunderstanding didn’t finish off humanity. After that, with the appearance of peace, these measures were abandoned. At that time, American leaders respected Russia and acknowledged the country’s sphere of control. Now they want Russia to kneel and submit obediently everywhere — Syria and the Ukraine are examples.

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry mentioned that “today, the danger of a nuclear catastrophe is greater than during the Cold War and the majority of people are happily unaware of that danger.” Daniel Ellsberg, the political analyst responsible for leaking the Pentagon Papers and nuclear planner in the ‘60s also revealed that before any conflict with the Soviet Union, the United States would have immediately launched a first strike at the USSR and at China, killing in this first effort about 600 million people, according to the Pentagon’s calculations.


No es probable que un comandante de un navío nuclear diga un día: “Destruyamos el mundo”. Y luego pase. Pero sinceramente el hecho de que ESO aún sea una probabilidad es suficiente para cuestionar lo que estamos haciendo con las armas nucleares. Y ¿qué se está haciendo? NADA.
La situación hoy es mucho peor que en tiempos pasados. Mucho más allá de que Putin o Trump se despierten con ganas de desayunarse una nube de hongo nuclear, ambos países han tenido planes de atacar (EU tiene un protocolo oficial de primer ataque bajo específicas circunstancias) sólo para mantener la ventaja numérica sobre la nación adversaria.
Si lanzas un primer ataque, o si respondes al ataque nuclear de otro, el proceso debe ser veloz, ya que el retraso puede significar la aniquilación completa de tu nación o de tu habilidad para contraatacar. Así que, si un bando estuviera dispuesto a agredir (o si erróneamente se percibe una amenaza enemiga) habría motivación suficiente para infligir un ataque mortal sobre su oponente, antes de que éste responda.
Es imposible no llegar a una conclusión catastrófica si juntamos las declaraciones del exdirector de Comando Estratégico, General Lee Butler, quien advierte como un “milagro que el mundo haya salido de la Guerra Fría sin desastres nucleares”; la frecuencia de los posibles “accidentes” que detonarían una guerra exterminadora, https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/ ; y el recorte de procesos para lanzar un arma (Rusia en específico adaptó controles remotos en Moscú que circunvalan la cadena de mando para lanzar misiles en Siberia en menos de 20 segundos). Si tomamos esto racionalmente, deberíamos rezar con fervor para que Trump y Putin estén unidos por fuertes lazos de corrupción. Eso haría mucho menos certera la amenaza de una guerra nuclear.
En la Guerra Fría, EU y Rusia establecieron controles y abrieron comunicación después de la Crisis de los Misiles en Cuba, para asegurarse de que una estupidez o malentendido no acabe con la humanidad. Después, con la aparente paz, esta medida se abandonó. En ese entonces, líderes americanos respetaban a Rusia y le cedieron su dominio propio. Hoy quieren que Rusia se hinque y se someta obedientemente en todos lados (Siria y Ucrania son ejemplos).
El exsecretario de Defensa americano, William Perry, menciona que “hoy, el peligro de una catástrofe nuclear es mayor que durante la Guerra Fría y la mayoría de las personas están felizmente ignorando este peligro”.
También revela Daniel Ellsberg, analista político responsable por filtrar los Pentagon Papers y planeador nuclear en los 60: ante cualquier conflicto con la Unión Soviética, Estados Unidos inmediatamente lanzarían un primer ataque a la URSS y también a China, matando en ese primer intento a unos 600 millones de personas, de acuerdo con los cálculos del Pentágono.
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