Trump’s Commercial Tariffs Complicate Dialogue with Beijing

Published in O Globo
(Brazil) on 19 Sep 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Domitila Olivé. Edited by Eric Stimson.
U.S. sets tariffs of 10 percent on over 5,000 thousand products, and China announces retaliation and the end of negotiations.

On Sept. 18, the White House escalated its commercial war with China by announcing the imposition of tariffs of 10 percent on more than 5,000 Chinese products estimated at $200 billion, starting one week after the announcement. On Jan. 1, 2019, the tariffs will rise to 25 percent. The American administration even threatened to set a third stage of tariffs, coming to a total of $267 billion, in case China adopts a reciprocity policy.

After Washington’s announcement, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that there will be retaliation, but disclosed no further details. On another occasion, the Chinese government stated that it would impose the equivalent of $60 billion in tariffs in case the U.S. escalated the commercial war between the two countries. On the following weekend, Beijing also claimed it would suspend the round of negotiations scheduled for the two countries if there were new tariffs on Chinese products.

As promised during his campaign, Donald Trump’s commercial war started in March, when the U.S. imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum on many nations, including China and some of the U.S.’s historical allies, like Canada and European countries. Since then, there has been an increase in retaliation, leading specialists to warn of a possible global recession.

Many economists admit that on occasion, Trump’s protectionism benefits specific sectors of the American economy. However, they say that with the increase in prices of such products for the consumer, entire economic chains will lose competitiveness, affecting jobs and company productivity.

It is a dangerous game that everyone loses. The impact of the American tariffs on China’s gross domestic product has been considerable. On the other hand, the Asian giant owns American debt, which calls for a relationship of trust and respect between both countries. Each depends on the other.

Unaware of the warning signs, the American president obsessively repeats the gospel of his campaign over Twitter, according to which the U.S. is the victim of others’ greed and needs to be made great again. He also accuses his critics, especially the Democrats, of forming alliances with foreign countries against American interests.

By making this subject political, Trump seeks voter support, thinking voters will restore his lost greatness. However, Republicans who seek a seat in Congress are confronted with the denial of their liberal roots and the defense of free commerce. Interestingly enough, it’s the Chinese that, in multilateral forums, have been defending globalization.


EUA impõem taxação de 10% sobre cinco mil produtos, e China anuncia retaliação e fim de diálogo

A Casa Branca aprofundou ontem a guerra comercial que vem travando com a China e anunciou a taxação de 10% sobre cinco mil produtos chineses, avaliados em cerca de US$ 200 bilhões, a começar na próxima semana. A partir de 1º de janeiro de 2019, estas tarifas saltarão para 25%. O governo americano ameaçou ainda impor uma terceira etapa de impostos, no valor total de US$ 267 bilhões, caso a China adote uma política de reciprocidade.

Após o anúncio de Washington, o Ministério do Comércio da China anunciou, sem dar detalhes, que vai retaliar. Em outra ocasião, o governo chinês havia informado que imporia o equivalente a US$ 60 bilhões em taxações caso os EUA aprofundassem a guerra comercial entre as duas potências. No fim de semana, Pequim também declarou que suspenderia a rodada de negociações marcadas entre os dois países, se os produtos chineses fossem taxados.

Promessa de campanha, a guerra comercial de Trump começou em março, com a imposição de tarifas de 25% sobre o aço e 10% sobre o alumínio contra várias nações, inclusive a China e aliados históricos, como o Canadá e países europeus. De lá para cá, houve uma escalada de medidas retaliatórias, levando alguns especialistas a alertarem para o risco de uma recessão global.

Muitos economistas admitem que o protecionismo de Trump beneficia pontualmente setores específicos da economia americana. No entanto, alertam que, com a consequente elevação dos preços desses produtos para o consumidor, cadeias econômicas inteiras perderão competitividade, afetando o emprego e a produtividade das empresas.

Trata-se de um jogo perigoso em que todos perdem. O impacto das tarifas americanas sobre o PIB chinês tem sido considerável, por outro lado, o gigante asiático é detentor de títulos da dívida americana, o que recomenda uma relação de confiança e respeito entre os dois países. Um depende do outro.

Alheio aos alertas, o presidente americano repete obsessivamente, pelo Twitter, o evangelho de sua campanha, segundo o qual os EUA são vítimas da ganância alheia, e é preciso tornar o país grande novamente. Também acusa os críticos, sobretudo os democratas, de se aliarem a potências estrangeiras contra os interesses dos americanos.

Ao politizar o assunto, Trump busca o apoio de seu eleitor na ideia de que ele devolverá a grandeza perdida. Porém, os republicanos que buscam uma vaga no Congresso se veem confrontados por negarem suas raízes liberais e a defesa do livre comércio. Curiosamente, são os chineses que, nos fóruns multilaterais, têm defendido a globalização.
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