Trump’s Visit to Japan Sends Strategic Message: Contain China

Published in Taiwan Times
(Taiwan) on 30 May 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
As a new hegemon, China is the one the U.S. wants to contain. In Asia, Japan is of course the United States’ most important ally, and due to its geographic location, Taiwan is a natural American ally.

Ever since the U.S. began treating China with a heavy hand, imposing tariffs and sanctions aimed at science and technology, the confrontation between the U.S. and China has slowly spread to all levels of society, spiraling into a toxic situation. In this context, President Donald Trump took advantage of his visit to Japan to inspect the Yokosuka Naval Base and boarded the Japanese frigate Kaga. The military strategic of allying with Japan to control China was evident. This is the first time a U.S. president has boarded a Japanese naval warship, highlighting the solid relationship between the U.S. and Japan. In particular, over the past year, as Japan and China’s international relations and economic relationship have gradually warmed up again, Trump has been suppressing China, brashly playing the military card. This has naturally eroded and hurt the mutual trust that Japan and China have built.

Onboard the Maritime Self-Defense Force frigate Kaga, Trump declared that after Japan purchased more F-35s, it would be the ally with the largest F-35 fighter fleet, saying, “This ship, the Kaga, is the same. After it’s fitted to carry F-15 aircraft, it will become a warship that can cross regions.” Trump proclaimed more loudly, “The U.S. military doesn’t plan on giving up the strongest position in the world. It will never think about being second.”

Without a doubt, he was speaking to China. On Jan. 20, 2018, the National Defense Strategy report released by the U.S. government indicated that the reemergence of China and Russia is the central challenge to U.S. prosperity and safety.

However, this February, the RAND Corporation, the well-known U.S. security think tank, published a report entitled “Russia Is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China Is a Peer, Not a Rogue,” in which it treated China and Russia separately. This report clearly points out that China has adopted more active measures to expand its influence through trade, investment and development assistance. Thus, at present, China does not pose a direct threat to the U.S., but is rather a larger long-term challenge. In particular, in the realm of geoeconomics, China has already thrown off regional constraints, and in terms of international influence, absolute superiority of either the U.S. or China has gradually disappeared, but leans in China’s favor. That the U.S. has hit China with economic and trade tariffs and science and technology sanctions shows that the U.S. already can no longer tolerate the economic threat China poses and is attempting to speed up curtailment of possible military breakthroughs by China that would challenge U.S. military hegemony. Based on this, in addition to Japan, Russia will also be an important future ally.

In fact, Trump once had a good relationship with Vladimir Putin and wished to promote a strategy of allying with Russia to control China. However, that strategy stalled as a result of strong anti-Russia sentiment within the U.S. Yet, this year on March 24, the U.S. Department of Justice released a four-page summary revealing that Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence that Trump or his team colluded with the Russian government. This signifies that there is room — considerable room — for U.S.-Russian cooperation. The key is whether Russia is really willing to make a critical strategic turn.

It is worth noting that in his address to the Federal Assembly on Feb. 20, Putin vowed to strengthen Russia’s relationship with Asian countries, indicating Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries. Russia’s plan in the Pacific region is to improve relations with Japan, and obtain Asian partners who will make investment in Siberia a top priority. From another perspective, Japan has always been a weather vane for U.S. foreign policy. When Japan and Russia improve their relationship, development of the U.S.-Russia relationship will be at hand.

It is evident from this that in the future, the U.S. will probably pressure China on trade and security. Japan, whether through trade or the military, has great strategic value for the U.S. And the ever-calculating Trump, on his trip to Japan, made a point of going onboard the MSDF Kaga. The strategic implications are profound and focused. The U.S. will subdue China through military force — the current question is one of time and opportunity.

With this in mind, Taiwan cannot take part in this grand occasion. Centrally located and as an island, Taiwan cannot abandon its role as a security partner for the U.S. At the same time, Taiwan is also a model of Asian democracy, valuing law, privacy and freedom of speech, and is a natural democratic partner. In the face of the changing and unpredictable situation in East Asia, the question is whether Taiwan is prepared.


川普訪日釋放出圍堵中國的戰略訊息

--中國是新的霸權,當然扮演美國圍堵的對象,在亞洲日本當然是美國最重要的盟邦,台灣的地理位置自然成為美國的盟友。

自從美國對中國下重手,施行關稅制裁及科技制裁後,美中對立已逐漸擴散到社會的各個層面,並呈現惡性螺旋上升的態勢。在這脈絡下,美國總統川普利用訪日行程,前往橫須賀基地視察,並登上日本護衛艦加賀號,其軍事上「聯日制中」的戰略思維,乃不言而喻。而這是首位美國總統登上日本自衛隊的艦艇,更凸顯美日同盟堅如磐石般的關係。尤其是,在過去一年來,日中外交與經貿關係逐漸看到回溫的當下,川普在壓制中國同時,大喇喇地打軍事牌,對日中這一年來互信的建立自然是一種侵蝕與破壞。

在自衛隊護衛艦加賀號上,川普宣示,日本未來增購F三十五後,將成為盟國中擁有最大規模F三十五戰機隊的國家,並說「這艘加賀號也一樣,將改裝成可搭載F三十五,變成可以跨越地區的戰艦。川普更大聲疾呼,「美軍不打算讓出世界第一強的位置,永遠不考慮當老二。」毫無疑問地,他的聽眾對象自然是中國。去(二○一八)年一月二十日美國政府對外公布的國防戰略報告指出,中國與俄國的重新崛起是美國繁榮和安全的「核心挑戰」。

不過,今年二月,美國著名的安全智庫蘭德公司(RAND Corporation)出版一份報告,卻將中俄分別對待,題目是《俄羅斯是流氓,不是對手;中國是對手,不是流氓》。該報告清楚地指出,中國採取了透過貿易、投資和發展援助等擴大影響力的更積極措施,因此,眼前中國對美國固然不構成直接威脅,卻是更大的長期挑戰。尤其是,在地緣經濟領域,中國已經擺脫了區域限制,美中在國際的影響力,已逐漸失去絕對優勢,而向中國傾斜。美國對中國既打經貿,又打科技,已顯示,美國已容不下中國對她在經濟上的威脅,並試圖更超前地遏制中國可能的軍事突破,而挑戰美國的軍事霸權。基此,日本之外,俄羅斯也是未來重要的結盟對象。

事實上,川普曾與普丁交好,而有推展「聯俄制中」戰略的企圖,無奈卡在美國內部強勢的反俄勢力。不過,今年三月二十四日美國司法部公布四頁摘要,顯示特別檢察官穆勒並未發現川普本人或其團隊與俄羅斯政府共謀的證據。這意味著,美俄兩國合作的空間是存在的,甚至還不小,關鍵只在於俄羅斯是否真的願意進行關鍵性的戰略轉向。

值得注意的是,今年二月二十日普丁在其國情咨文報告中,誓言將加強與亞洲國家的關係,指的是日本、南韓、與東南亞國家。其中,與日本改善關係,是俄羅斯在太平洋地區的佈局,爭取亞洲國家到西伯利亞進行各種投資的重要夥伴,是首要之務。而再從另個角度看,日本一向是美國外交政策的風向球,當日本與俄羅斯改善關係時,美俄關係的開展也就近了。

由此可見,未來美國在經貿與安全上箝制中國應是勢之所趨。而箇中,日本不管在經貿或軍事上,對美國而言,是極具戰略價值的。而以向來精算的川普在訪日過程,特別登上自衛隊護衛艦加賀號觀之,其戰略含意是有深意與方向性的。美國何時會以軍事來制服中國,目前只是時間與機遇的問題。

準此以觀,台灣是無法自外於此一盛況的參與的。台灣位居第一島鏈的中心點,必然在「實質上」脫離不了以美國為主的「安全同盟」的夥伴角色,同時,台灣也是亞洲民主的典範,重視法律、隱私、與言論自由,自然也是「民主同盟」的指標性夥伴。只是,面對詭譎多變的東亞情勢,台灣究竟準備好了沒有?
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