How America Let Russia Down: The US Presidential Election Will Change the Russian Perspective on the United States
According to recently conducted polls, 2 out of 3 Russians have been watching the U.S. presidential election. Although most of the respondents preferred Donald Trump, they were not as enchanted with him as they had been four years ago. An important consequence of this election (other than the choice of the new U.S. president) will be the realization that the United States is an ordinary country with plenty of its own problems. Such a reassessment of their perception of the United States will make many Russians feel a bit lost, believes Denis Volkov, assistant director of the Levada Center.
One way or another, two-thirds of the Russian population kept track of American current events. Over the past few months the headlines have been dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and protests in Belarus. However, starting in September-October, the upcoming U.S. election started to crop up again and again. Many topics were discussed, including key events in the presidential race, the campaign tactics of each party, the two main candidates and how the results of the election would affect Russian-American relations.
Commentators often responded with a definitive "yes" when asked whether it was actually important who the next U.S. president would be. Yet not many could explain exactly how and why this would be important. Those who did know explained that the U.S. presidential race had a constant and immediate effect on the value of the ruble. The results of the election seem important because the United States "has always influenced Russia with its dollars, put spokes in Russia's wheels, and implemented sanctions." In fact, if you ask most Russians, they will say that the United States is Russia's main enemy. And, as with all enemies, one needs to keep them close and be well informed about their plans.
All the same, it is important to note that this opinion is held first and foremost by the older generation of Russians. Young people in general are much less interested in American affairs. Young people view America in a more positive and less suspicious light. This fact is supported both by statistics gathered from polls and from focus groups.
However, as we dug deeper and asked our audience which candidate would be a better choice, considering America's relationship with Russia, the answer changed to Joe Biden. In general, though, the respondents stated that they did not care which candidate was elected president because both of them are anti-Russia. In fact, there are no pro-Russia politicians in America, so regardless of the election results, "Russia will continue to be blamed for everything."
Trump did seem more appealing to the Russian audience due to Biden's rather harsh remarks about Russia. Furthermore, the respondents believed that Trump was the safer option, since he is a familiar figure and the world knows what to expect of him. Thus, his candidacy is more favorable to the Russian government and the country at large. Respondents noted that Trump "ignores many things" and "never criticizes either Russia or Putin." Some even believed that the Kremlin might be in a position to blackmail Trump. Biden, on the other hand, has always criticized our country and openly declares that Russia is the United States' enemy.
And yet the current American president does not seem such an attractive candidate to the Russian audience as he did four years ago. From time to time one of the respondents would sigh and remember the unrealized hopes they had for Trump: how everyone celebrated when he was elected and waited for Russian-American relations to improve. But nothing changed. Thus the Russian reaction to the results of the American election is best summed up by Shakespeare's famous quote: "A plague on both your houses." One of the focus group respondents expressed this same sentiment in more modern language, but it did not sound any worse: "Personally, I care nothing for America. I don't care who they elect: Let them live how they want! But they better not touch us!"
Similar reactions are found among various respondents to the polls. Last month 16% of Russians preferred Trump and half as many preferred Biden. But two-thirds of the population did not see any difference between the candidates. Just four years ago there were many more Trump supporters in our country — in November 2016 more than half of the respondents preferred him to Hillary Clinton.
The warm feelings that the Russian people first felt toward Trump have cooled due to the unrealized hopes of American-Russian relations improving. Honestly, though, nobody really believed that Trump would be successful in this sphere of action. Many respondents observed that politicians tend to make grand promises, but don't keep them.
Russian television surely played a part in the general decrease in interest of the Russian population in the American presidential race. There was no hype as there was during the last election: The TV commentators and government representatives were much more reserved when commenting on the situation. Perhaps the upper tiers of the Russian government decided to limit the expression of Russian opinion on the American election so as to prevent new accusations of Russian involvement in the U.S. election.
Based on personal experience and on the experience of my colleagues, respondents reply differently to the question of whether Russia is involved in the politics of other countries. The responses vary based on where the question is posed: in a poll or during a conversation in a focus group. Yet the responses do not vary depending on what issue is being discussed, whether it is the American election, the possible poisoning of a former Russian secret service agent, the appearance of possible agents in neighboring countries. If a trusting relationship is established between the moderator and the members of a focus group, then various nuances are discovered among the responses.
Thus, in September-October the respondents who replied negatively when asked about the possibility of Russian involvement in the American election backed up their reasoning by their belief in Putin's authority: If he says that there was no Russian involvement, then there was none. However, other respondents disagreed: Putin only said that there was no EVIDENCE of Russian involvement. Do you catch the difference?
Most respondents are willing to allow for the possibility that a certain measure of involvement had taken place: After all, "there is no smoke without fire," "everyone wants to be involved in each other's business, both us and them," "everyone is always involved in each other's affairs — it’s politics." Such statements are evidence of a philistine perception of the international state of affairs, an arena in which everyone is pitted against everyone else and the prevailing motto is "kill or be killed." Furthermore, the ability to get involved in another country's affairs is seen as evidence of a state's status as a world power. These "powers" are sending the message: "We get involved because we can!" On the other hand, those respondents who rejected the possibility of Russian involvement in the American election pleaded their belief that Russia was a weak country, which may have had the intention but had no resources to enable it to interfere (can our economy really challenge the American economy?!).
The majority opinion is that Russia's involvement in other countries is just a replication of similar American behavior. The ordinary Russian citizen is certain that the U.S. has been involved in Russian affairs many times. For instance, it was the U.S. who elected Boris Yeltsin and forced a new constitution to be written. The majority of the Russian population believes that this involvement will only be rectified this year thanks to the adoption of amendments to the Russian Constitution. Most Russians believe that only America is to blame in each and every one of our country's conflicts and misfortunes. If such beliefs prevail, is it surprising that Russian involvement is not frowned upon, and only the possibility of being caught causes some discomfort: "we need to be more careful," "our actions should be less obvious," "we need to be more careful with using both hackers and ‘newbies’.”
Young people present an alternative perspective to this cartoonish understanding of Russian-American relations and the global balance of power. Members of the older generation quite readily repeat stereotypes about our involvement in American affairs, American involvement in our affairs, and sincerely believe in the creation of the coronavirus in American (or Chinese) labs. But respondents from younger generations did not even understand questions posed on these topics and considered them ridiculous and made-up. And yet, there are plenty of those among the youth demographic who readily accept the possibility of Russian hackers and the secret service getting involved in other countries. Furthermore, such behavior is justified as being just one of the many forms of competition between various powers.
The current U.S. presidential election has caused many Russians to start doubting that the U.S. still retains its status as a global leader. In a surprising turn of events everyone — Russian government officials, popular political TV speakers with ties to the Kremlin, politicians from the opposition, liberal journalists and experts — has responded negatively to the U.S. election this fall. Both the government TV channels and social media have been chock-full of reports with terrifying photos of the U.S. (prisoner transport vehicles, boarded up storefronts, the White House with several lines of defense around it) as audiences awaited mass protests. Both those Russians who support our current government, and those who are more liberal-minded, accused the American president of incompetence, the Congress of intractability, the chief American news sources of being overly political and the American sociologists and forecasters of lacking professionalism.
For the past few years the United States has occupied an extraordinary place in the thinking of many Russians. Some considered the U.S. an all-powerful enemy that is only concerned with insulting and weakening Russia. As a result it was necessary to maintain a constant readiness to defend oneself from an attack. Others believed the U.S. to hold an undeniable authority and be an unattainable model of democracy, freedom of speech and federal government. Today everything is changing. A new perception of the U.S. has emerged: It is now seen as no more than an ordinary country with plenty of its own unsolved problems. Many Russians have lost the standard against which they judged everything else. These changes in the Russian perception of the United States will have a huge effect on our understanding of our country's own place in the world and of future Russian-American relations. And keeping this in mind, the name of the next American president is of little consequence.
One way or another, two-thirds of the Russian population kept track of American current events. Over the past few months the headlines have been dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and protests in Belarus. However, starting in September-October, the upcoming U.S. election started to crop up again and again. Many topics were discussed, including key events in the presidential race, the campaign tactics of each party, the two main candidates and how the results of the election would affect Russian-American relations.
Commentators often responded with a definitive "yes" when asked whether it was actually important who the next U.S. president would be. Yet not many could explain exactly how and why this would be important. Those who did know explained that the U.S. presidential race had a constant and immediate effect on the value of the ruble. The results of the election seem important because the United States "has always influenced Russia with its dollars, put spokes in Russia's wheels, and implemented sanctions." In fact, if you ask most Russians, they will say that the United States is Russia's main enemy. And, as with all enemies, one needs to keep them close and be well informed about their plans.
All the same, it is important to note that this opinion is held first and foremost by the older generation of Russians. Young people in general are much less interested in American affairs. Young people view America in a more positive and less suspicious light. This fact is supported both by statistics gathered from polls and from focus groups.
However, as we dug deeper and asked our audience which candidate would be a better choice, considering America's relationship with Russia, the answer changed to Joe Biden. In general, though, the respondents stated that they did not care which candidate was elected president because both of them are anti-Russia. In fact, there are no pro-Russia politicians in America, so regardless of the election results, "Russia will continue to be blamed for everything."
Trump did seem more appealing to the Russian audience due to Biden's rather harsh remarks about Russia. Furthermore, the respondents believed that Trump was the safer option, since he is a familiar figure and the world knows what to expect of him. Thus, his candidacy is more favorable to the Russian government and the country at large. Respondents noted that Trump "ignores many things" and "never criticizes either Russia or Putin." Some even believed that the Kremlin might be in a position to blackmail Trump. Biden, on the other hand, has always criticized our country and openly declares that Russia is the United States' enemy.
And yet the current American president does not seem such an attractive candidate to the Russian audience as he did four years ago. From time to time one of the respondents would sigh and remember the unrealized hopes they had for Trump: how everyone celebrated when he was elected and waited for Russian-American relations to improve. But nothing changed. Thus the Russian reaction to the results of the American election is best summed up by Shakespeare's famous quote: "A plague on both your houses." One of the focus group respondents expressed this same sentiment in more modern language, but it did not sound any worse: "Personally, I care nothing for America. I don't care who they elect: Let them live how they want! But they better not touch us!"
Similar reactions are found among various respondents to the polls. Last month 16% of Russians preferred Trump and half as many preferred Biden. But two-thirds of the population did not see any difference between the candidates. Just four years ago there were many more Trump supporters in our country — in November 2016 more than half of the respondents preferred him to Hillary Clinton.
The warm feelings that the Russian people first felt toward Trump have cooled due to the unrealized hopes of American-Russian relations improving. Honestly, though, nobody really believed that Trump would be successful in this sphere of action. Many respondents observed that politicians tend to make grand promises, but don't keep them.
Russian television surely played a part in the general decrease in interest of the Russian population in the American presidential race. There was no hype as there was during the last election: The TV commentators and government representatives were much more reserved when commenting on the situation. Perhaps the upper tiers of the Russian government decided to limit the expression of Russian opinion on the American election so as to prevent new accusations of Russian involvement in the U.S. election.
Based on personal experience and on the experience of my colleagues, respondents reply differently to the question of whether Russia is involved in the politics of other countries. The responses vary based on where the question is posed: in a poll or during a conversation in a focus group. Yet the responses do not vary depending on what issue is being discussed, whether it is the American election, the possible poisoning of a former Russian secret service agent, the appearance of possible agents in neighboring countries. If a trusting relationship is established between the moderator and the members of a focus group, then various nuances are discovered among the responses.
Thus, in September-October the respondents who replied negatively when asked about the possibility of Russian involvement in the American election backed up their reasoning by their belief in Putin's authority: If he says that there was no Russian involvement, then there was none. However, other respondents disagreed: Putin only said that there was no EVIDENCE of Russian involvement. Do you catch the difference?
Most respondents are willing to allow for the possibility that a certain measure of involvement had taken place: After all, "there is no smoke without fire," "everyone wants to be involved in each other's business, both us and them," "everyone is always involved in each other's affairs — it’s politics." Such statements are evidence of a philistine perception of the international state of affairs, an arena in which everyone is pitted against everyone else and the prevailing motto is "kill or be killed." Furthermore, the ability to get involved in another country's affairs is seen as evidence of a state's status as a world power. These "powers" are sending the message: "We get involved because we can!" On the other hand, those respondents who rejected the possibility of Russian involvement in the American election pleaded their belief that Russia was a weak country, which may have had the intention but had no resources to enable it to interfere (can our economy really challenge the American economy?!).
The majority opinion is that Russia's involvement in other countries is just a replication of similar American behavior. The ordinary Russian citizen is certain that the U.S. has been involved in Russian affairs many times. For instance, it was the U.S. who elected Boris Yeltsin and forced a new constitution to be written. The majority of the Russian population believes that this involvement will only be rectified this year thanks to the adoption of amendments to the Russian Constitution. Most Russians believe that only America is to blame in each and every one of our country's conflicts and misfortunes. If such beliefs prevail, is it surprising that Russian involvement is not frowned upon, and only the possibility of being caught causes some discomfort: "we need to be more careful," "our actions should be less obvious," "we need to be more careful with using both hackers and ‘newbies’.”
Young people present an alternative perspective to this cartoonish understanding of Russian-American relations and the global balance of power. Members of the older generation quite readily repeat stereotypes about our involvement in American affairs, American involvement in our affairs, and sincerely believe in the creation of the coronavirus in American (or Chinese) labs. But respondents from younger generations did not even understand questions posed on these topics and considered them ridiculous and made-up. And yet, there are plenty of those among the youth demographic who readily accept the possibility of Russian hackers and the secret service getting involved in other countries. Furthermore, such behavior is justified as being just one of the many forms of competition between various powers.
The current U.S. presidential election has caused many Russians to start doubting that the U.S. still retains its status as a global leader. In a surprising turn of events everyone — Russian government officials, popular political TV speakers with ties to the Kremlin, politicians from the opposition, liberal journalists and experts — has responded negatively to the U.S. election this fall. Both the government TV channels and social media have been chock-full of reports with terrifying photos of the U.S. (prisoner transport vehicles, boarded up storefronts, the White House with several lines of defense around it) as audiences awaited mass protests. Both those Russians who support our current government, and those who are more liberal-minded, accused the American president of incompetence, the Congress of intractability, the chief American news sources of being overly political and the American sociologists and forecasters of lacking professionalism.
For the past few years the United States has occupied an extraordinary place in the thinking of many Russians. Some considered the U.S. an all-powerful enemy that is only concerned with insulting and weakening Russia. As a result it was necessary to maintain a constant readiness to defend oneself from an attack. Others believed the U.S. to hold an undeniable authority and be an unattainable model of democracy, freedom of speech and federal government. Today everything is changing. A new perception of the U.S. has emerged: It is now seen as no more than an ordinary country with plenty of its own unsolved problems. Many Russians have lost the standard against which they judged everything else. These changes in the Russian perception of the United States will have a huge effect on our understanding of our country's own place in the world and of future Russian-American relations. And keeping this in mind, the name of the next American president is of little consequence.
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