Trump and the Iran Threat

President Donald Trump’s threat of action against Iran over the last few days comes after he has spent years waging economic war on the Iranian people. The United States has done enormous economic damage to Iran, and through the use of sanctions with the explicit goal of Iran’s economic collapse, it has directly targeted the Iranian people. Now, in the final days of the Trump presidency, the U.S. government talks of military action based on unproven excuses, launching such questionable measures as sending advanced weapons to Iran’s neighbors.

Much of the pressure that the U.S. has exerted on Iran over the past few years cannot be directly linked to Iran’s nuclear program or other issues. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. has built an image of Iran as being a serious threat to Israel and, with the help of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has sought to increase pressure on Tehran. To predict what might happen in the coming weeks, we must first consider where Tel Aviv and Riyadh stand on military action against Iran, and whether such action during the final days of Trump’s presidency would benefit them or not.

Since the Nov. 3 presidential election and Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory, it has become clear that Trump is on his way out. This has caused some governments in the Middle East to express concern about the future of U.S. foreign policy. Among these is Israel, which continues to worry despite knowing that Washington is committed to protecting Israeli security and supporting Israel regardless of political change. Presumably, Israel thinks that under a Biden presidency, it will lose its ability to act freely in the region. In the long term, Israel and Saudi Arabia’s interests depend on having the U.S. relationship with Iran remain fractured so that they can take advantage of the regional tension to advance their own policies.

From a short-term perspective, however, the situation is a bit different. The Biden administration has promised that it will return to the Iran nuclear deal and resolve the dispute diplomatically. So, if Israeli or Saudi Arabian provocation causes a conflict before Biden is sworn in, or if the situation devolves in a way that limits diplomacy, the Democratic administration will probably not react positively to the perpetrator of those events, and the relationship between that nation and the U.S. will suffer. On top of this, the accusations being thrown around against Iran are implausible, and no evidence has been provided to back them up. A few documents and unverified evidence is insufficient to accuse Iran of targeting the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad or of having played a role in that event. The attack could be attributed to the remnants of the Islamic State, or even to American, Israeli or Saudi Arabian agents. There are many who stand to benefit from an increase in tensions, but a new conflict in the region would not benefit the U.S. in any way.

After pouring gas on the flames of regional tension by assassinating Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the U.S. now alleges that statements by Iranian officials about avenging Soleimani are dangerous, and the U.S. has promised a firm response to any such action. The Trump administration will likely continue to flirt with danger and consider unilateral action in the coming weeks; we can only hope that Iran and the rest of the international community can safely ride out these final days of Trump’s presidency. If anything happens during this in-between time, it will primarily be the Iranian people who suffer the consequences. Both the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and resistance groups have condemned this attack and have professed their innocence. Despite this, Trump’s failing mental health continues to be a cause for worry, and it is possible that he could take action without first evaluating the situation and considering the consequences. Importantly, during this period it is unwise to provoke such a character with threats or strong language, because Trump has shown that he is capable of making completely irrational and unjustified decisions without regard for the potential consequences.