US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: The Taliban Advance Must Be Stopped

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 10 July 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Max Guerrera-Sapone. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
As the U.S. military prepares to complete its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban Islamic fundamentalist group has attacked Afghan government forces with increasing vigor. This is a worrying development.

For 20 years, the U.S. military has maintained bases in the country, propped up its government, and kept order. We cannot ignore the possibility that the American withdrawal will have an impact on the war on terror not only within Afghanistan, but throughout Central Asia, and even the world.

It is necessary to recognize that Afghanistan is at a crossroads. As it has in the past, it may fall into a state of civil war and become a hotbed of terrorism, and this outcome must be avoided at any cost.

The U.S. military should cooperate with neighboring countries to take measures such as securing a replacement for the Bagram Airfield, and prepare to intervene again if it becomes necessary. Japan and the broader international community should express unwavering support for the Afghan government, and make clear that they will remained involved with the country.

President Joe Biden announced in April that American troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks this year, and more than 90% of the withdrawal has already been completed.

Meanwhile, the Taliban have expanded the area under their control in northern Afghanistan to the extent that more than 1,000 Afghan government troops have been forced to flee to neighboring Tajikistan.

Particularly concerning is the way in which, despite all of this, the American withdrawal has proceeded briskly, even ahead of schedule. This seems imprudent amid fear of civil war and the collapse of the Afghan government. It is necessary to curtail the Taliban advance. While this withdrawal is being carried out in line with a deal between the former Trump administration and the Taliban, it feels odd that the Biden administration, which promotes “human rights diplomacy,” is proceeding with an agreement with the Taliban, which places severe restrictions on people who live in the areas they control.

When Biden announced the Afghan withdrawal, he hinted at focusing on competition with China, and emphasized that the resources freed up leaving Afghanistan would be redirected toward dealing with China.

While we agree with the principle behind this shift, there is no doubt that it is also laden with danger. If Afghanistan sinks into chaos once more following the American withdrawal and a new intervention becomes necessary, all will have been for naught.

China and Russia will not remain disinterested in an Afghanistan where there is no American presence. While China is concerned about the potential flow of extremists from Afghanistan into its country, it also places the country at the heart of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. For its part, Russia considers the five Central Asian countries north of Afghanistan to be within its sphere of influence.

Any intervention in Afghanistan must contribute to stabilizing the country and fighting terrorism. A reckless competition for influence between great powers should be out of the question.




米軍のアフガニスタンからの撤収完了を前にイスラム原理主義勢力タリバンの政府軍への攻撃が勢いを増しており、大きな不安を禁じ得ない。

米軍は20年にわたり拠点を置き、政府を支え、治安を守ってきた。撤収はアフガン国内のみならず、中央アジアを含む地域全体、あるいは世界を巻き込んだテロとの戦い全般に影響を及ぼさずにはおかない。

重大な岐路にあると認識すべきだ。アフガンがかつてのような内戦状況に陥り、「テロの温床」となる事態は絶対に避けたい。

米国は急ぎ、周辺国の協力を得て、バグラム空軍基地に代わる出撃拠点の確保など、いざというときの態勢を整えなければならない。日本を含む国際社会は、アフガンへの変わらぬ支援を表明し、関与の継続を明確にすべきだ。

バイデン米大統領は今年4月、米中枢同時テロから20年の9月11日までに撤収すると表明し、すでに9割以上が作業を終えた。

一方、タリバンは北部を中心に着実に支配地を拡大させ、劣勢に立たされた政府軍は1000人を超える兵士が国境を越え、タジキスタンに逃げる事態になった。

気がかりなのは、米軍撤収が早めのペースで着々と進められていることだ。内戦や政府崩壊を危惧する声も上がる中、慎重さを欠くのではないか。タリバンの攻勢に歯止めをかける必要がある。撤収がトランプ米前政権とタリバンとの合意に沿ったものとはいえ、「人権外交」を掲げるバイデン政権が、住民に厳しい規律を押しつけるタリバンとの合意を進めようとする姿勢に違和感を覚える。

バイデン氏は撤収表明の際、「中国との競争」に言及し、撤収で生まれる余力を対中国シフトに振り向ける考えを強調した。

その発想は正しいが、危うさもはらんでいる。撤収後のアフガンが混乱し、再度、本格介入を迫られれば、元も子もないからだ。

米軍不在となるアフガンには、中国、ロシアも無関心ではいられまい。中国は過激派流入を警戒する一方、アフガンを「一帯一路」の中核地域とみている。アフガンの北の中央アジア5カ国はロシアが「勢力圏」とみなす。

アフガンに介入するなら、この国の安定とテロとの戦いへの貢献につながるものでなくてはならない。やみくもに影響力拡大を競うなどもってのほかだ。
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