Toward an Uncertain Cold War against China in the Pacific

Published in El Mundo
(Spain) on 17 September 2021
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sergio Ferreras. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Joe Biden did not wait too long after getting to the White House to reunite with its EU allies and NATO partners, ending Donald Trump's cold administration and sending a serious warning to Russia's arrogant attitude. However, since the hasty and humiliating departure from Afghanistan, the U.S. administration is making it clear that its defense strategy is not going to be focused on the European continent or Vladimir Putin, but on the Indo-Pacific, keeping an eye on China. The goal is turning the region into a "free, open, secure" space, in Biden's words.

To do this, like his predecessor, the U.S. president seems to rely more on single alliances than on international cooperation organizations, such as the United Nations or NATO itself. So far, Washington is part of two multilateral forums: Five Eyes (an alliance formed by the intelligence agencies of the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (with Japan, Australia and India). Both have as a priority to collaborate in the Indo-Pacific against the expansionism of Beijing, with whom the U.S. has several fronts: a long trade war, the Chinese threat to Taiwan, the battle of sanctions after the elimination of Hong Kong's autonomy and the reeducation camps for Uighurs.

It is in this context that the new security pact signed by the U.S., Australia and the United Kingdom must be taken into consideration; that means a severe setback for Europe. First, it means a triumph for Boris Johnson after Brexit, which could be the prelude to signing a free trade agreement with the United States. Second, the agreement seals the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia, thus forcing Australia to cancel the purchase of 12 of these vehicles from France and making it the sixth country with this type of atomic weapons.

As expected, the communist dictatorship has already reacted, accusing the three powers of "undermining international peace and stability" and of "intensifying the arms race," in a region where Xi Jinping has several conflicts because of China's occupation of the South China Sea. Everything indicates that we are facing the beginning of a dangerous and unpredictable cold war in the Pacific.


Hacia una incierta guerra fría con China en el Pacífico
No esperó demasiado tiempo Joe Biden desde que aterrizó en la Casa Blanca para escenificar un acercamiento de EEUU hacia sus aliados de la UE y sus socios de la OTAN, poniendo fin al frío mandato de Donald Trump y lanzando una seria advertencia a la actitud beligerante de Rusia. Sin embargo, desde la precipitada y humillante salida de Afganistán, la Administración norteamericana está dejando claro que su estrategia defensiva no va a estar centrada en el continente europeo ni en Putin, sino en el Indo-Pacífico, con la mirada puesta en China y el objetivo de convertir la región en un espacio «libre y abierto», según palabras de Biden. Para ello, siguiendo la estela de su antecesor, el presidente estadounidense parece confiar más en alianzas puntuales que en los organismos internacionales de cooperación, como Naciones Unidas o la propia OTAN. Hasta ahora, Washington forma parte de dos foros multilaterales: Five Eyes (una alianza formada por las agencias de Inteligencia de EEUU, Canadá, Australia, Nueva Zelanda y Reino Unido) y Quad (Diálogo de Seguridad Cuadrilateral, que lo integra junto a Japón, Australia e India). Ambos tienen como prioridad colaborar en el Indo-Pacífico en contra del expansionismo de Pekín, con quien EEUU tiene varios frentes: una larga guerra comercial, la amenaza china a Taiwán y la batalla de las sanciones, tras la eliminación de la autonomía de Hong Kong y la creación de campos de reeducación para los uigures.

Es en este contexto en el que hay que enmarcar el nuevo acuerdo de seguridad firmado por EEUU, Australia y Reino Unido, lo que supone un duro revés para Europa. En primer lugar, porque significa un triunfo de Boris Johnson tras el Brexit, que podría ser la antesala de la firma de un tratado de libre comercio con EEUU. Y en segundo término, porque el acuerdo sella la venta de submarinos nucleares a Australia, forzada así a cancelar la compra de 12 de estos artefactos a Francia y convirtiendo a Australia en el sexto país con este tipo de armamento atómico.

Como era de esperar, la dictadura comunista no ha tardado en reaccionar, acusando a las tres potencias de «estar dañando la paz y la estabilidad» internacionales y de «intensificar la carrera armamentística», en una región en la que Xi Jinping mantiene varios conflictos latentes por su ocupación del Mar del sur de China. Todo indica que estamos ante el inicio de una peligrosa e imprevisible guerra fría en el Pacífico.
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